Estoril 1-5 Benfica – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Benfica at 53% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Estoril vs Benfica encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Primeira Liga clash, Regular Season - 12 as Estoril welcome Benfica to Estádio António Coimbra da Mota. Kick-off is set for Sunday 6 November 2022 at 20:30 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Estoril stand at 3W 4D 3L from 10 Primeira Liga matches — 1.30 PPG. Last five: D D W L D. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Estoril, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Estoril have posted 3W 4D 3L at Estádio António Coimbra da Mota — 1.30 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Benfica — All Games: 9W 1D 0L from 10 Primeira Liga fixtures this season — 2.80 PPG. Last five: W D W W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.50 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Defensively, 0.50 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 7 clean sheets from 10 games (70%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for Benfica, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Benfica's form when playing away from home: 8W 1D 1L across 10 road games this term (2.50 PPG). Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 0.40 conceded per game. 8 away clean sheets from 10 games (80%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Benfica are 1.50 PPG ahead (2.80 vs 1.30), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 0 wins apiece for Estoril, 1 for Benfica and 1 shared spoils from 2 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 2 previous meetings have averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 20 Mar 2022, ended 1–2 with Benfica winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Data
Estoril trading profile (45 games, 22 at home): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 58% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (home games); they fail to score in 31% of games.
Benfica trading profile (45 games, 22 at away): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; they lead at the break 56% of the time; BTTS occurs in 41% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 40%; they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Estoril 47% versus Benfica 51%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Estoril 38% | Benfica 60%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Estoril 0.58 xG and Benfica 1.26 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Estoril attack 0.837 / defence 1.092 | Benfica attack 1.120 / defence 0.509. League average goals — home 1.352 / away 1.033. Benfica's defence strength of 0.509 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 45 Estoril games / 45 Benfica games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Estoril 17% | Draw 30% | Benfica 53%. Fair-value odds: Estoril 5.88 | Draw 3.33 | Benfica 1.89. Benfica hold a narrow Poisson edge at 53% — the draw (30%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 28% | BTTS probability 31% | Total xG 1.84. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 72% probability — total xG of 1.84 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS No has firm model support at 69% — Estoril's lower xG of 0.58 creates a meaningful probability of a scoring blank, which suppresses the BTTS Yes probability to 31%.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Benfica as the most likely outcome at 53% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 30% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Benfica offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 1.84 combined xG gives a 28% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.0 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 31% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Estoril 40% | Benfica 20% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Estoril vs Benfica | Competition: Primeira Liga, Regular Season - 12 | Venue: Estádio António Coimbra da Mota • Kick-off: Sunday 6 Nov 2022, 20:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Estoril 17% | Draw 30% | Benfica 53% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 28% | BTTS 31% | xG Estoril 0.58 / Benfica 1.26 • Poisson strength factors: Estoril attack 0.837 / def 1.092 | Benfica attack 1.120 / def 0.509 | league avg home 1.352 / away 1.033 • Poisson stance: Benfica (53%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.58
Estoril xG
Expected Goals
1.26
Benfica xG
31%
BTTS
55%
Over 1.5
28%
Over 2.5
12%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Estoril vs Benfica kick off?
Estoril vs Benfica kicked off at 20:30 on Sunday 6 November 2022 at Estádio António Coimbra da Mota.
What was the final score in Estoril vs Benfica?
Estoril 1 - 5 Benfica.
Where is Estoril vs Benfica being played?
The match is being played at Estádio António Coimbra da Mota.
What competition is Estoril vs Benfica part of?
Estoril vs Benfica is a Regular Season - 12 fixture in the Primeira Liga (Portugal).
Who is favourite to win Estoril vs Benfica?
Our statistical model gives Estoril a 17% chance of winning, Benfica a 53% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Benfica the favourite.
Will both teams score in Estoril vs Benfica?
Our model estimates a 31% probability that both Estoril and Benfica will score (BTTS).
Will Estoril vs Benfica have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 28%.
What is the head-to-head record between Estoril and Benfica?
Record (2 meetings): Estoril 0W | Draws 1 | Benfica 1W.
What form are Estoril and Benfica in?
Estoril (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.00 | L5 D-D-W-L-D. Benfica (all comps): 9W-1D-0L in 10 | 2.80 PPG | GF 2.50 / GA 0.50 | L5 W-D-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Estoril's attack rating (0.84) and Benfica's defence rating (0.51), the model arrives at 0.58 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Benfica's attack versus Estoril's defence, projects 1.26 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 45/45 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 0-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 18.6%. Close behind: 0-0 (17.4%), 1-1 (13.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 49% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Benfica Win
17%
5.90
30%
3.36
53%
1.88
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
20.1%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 0
15.9%
Draw
0 – 2
12.7%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.58
Estoril xG
Total xG
1.84
1.26
Benfica xG
5.90
17%
Home win
3.36
30%
Draw
1.88
53%
Away win
Goals Markets
55%
Over 1.5
1.82
45%
Under 1.5
2.22
28%
Over 2.5
3.57
72%
Under 2.5
1.39
12%
Over 3.5
8.33
88%
Under 3.5
1.14
4%
Over 4.5
25.00
96%
Under 4.5
1.04
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
31%
BTTS Yes
3.18
69%
BTTS No
1.46
Clean Sheet
28%
3.54
56%
1.78
Win to Nil
5%
20.88
30%
3.34
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 15.9 | 20.1 | 12.7 | 5.3 | 1.7 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 9.1 | 11.6 | 7.3 | 3.1 | 1.0 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 2.6 | 3.3 | 2.1 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Estoril vs Benfica?
Our Poisson model rates 0-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 18.6%.
How many goals are Estoril and Benfica expected to score?
The model projects 0.58 expected goals for Estoril and 1.26 for Benfica, a combined total of 1.84.
How confident is the prediction model for Estoril vs Benfica?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 53%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Estoril's recent record stands at 13W 16D 16L from 45 games, a 1.22 PPG return, with D-D-W-L-D in the last five. The sample for Estoril is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Benfica, meanwhile, have gone 33W 6D 6L across 45 games — 2.33 PPG, with W-D-W-W-W in their last five. The sample for Benfica is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Benfica by 1.11 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Estoril heading into this one.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Estoril have managed 5W 10D 7L from 22 games — 1.14 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Benfica's away record stands at 17W 3D 2L across 22 trips, a 2.45 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Benfica come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Estoril are averaging 1.07 goals scored and 1.18 conceded per game recently; Benfica are on 2.38 scored and 0.78 conceded.
Defensively: Benfica in 44% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 45 Results — Primeira Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Estoril
Blended
Benfica
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Estoril and Benfica in coming into this match?
Estoril have gone 13W 16D 16L in their last 45 games (1.22 PPG), while Benfica have gone 33W 6D 6L in their last 45 (2.33 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Estoril at home or Benfica away?
Benfica's away record (2.45 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Estoril at home: 1.14 PPG; Benfica away: 2.45 PPG.
Have Estoril or Benfica been keeping clean sheets recently?
Estoril have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, Benfica in 44%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Estoril and Benfica runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Primeira Liga. The two were last together as recently as 16 May 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Digging Into the Numbers
There's a clear current trend here: Benfica have taken the last 9 head-to-head results.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 6 Nov 2022, when Benfica won 1-5 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Estoril's record when hosting Benfica specifically: 0W 1D 4L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
0
Estoril
1
Draws
9
Benfica
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Estoril and Benfica?
From 10 meetings on record, Estoril have won 0, Benfica have won 9, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Estoril and Benfica last play each other?
They last met on 16 May 2026, when Estoril 1-3 Benfica.
Who has won more matches between Estoril and Benfica?
Benfica have the better head-to-head record, with 9 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Estoril are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 41% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 32% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Benfica are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 59% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Estoril 54%, Benfica 41% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 46% (Estoril) and 50% (Benfica).
On the defensive side: Estoril keep a clean sheet in 32% of their matches; Benfica in 59%; Estoril have failed to score in 27% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Estoril home games / Benfica away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Estoril play Benfica?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 54% of Estoril's recent matches and 41% of Benfica's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Estoril vs Benfica usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 46% of Estoril's recent games and 50% of Benfica's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Estoril and Benfica tend to score early?
Estoril have had a goal before half-time in 73% of their recent matches, Benfica in 73% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Benfica run riot with a 1-5 hammering of Estoril.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Benfica beat Estoril 1-5 at Estádio António Coimbra da Mota, Regular Season - 12, in the Primeira Liga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Estoril 0.58 xG and Benfica 1.26 xG, a combined 1.84. The scoreboard read 1-5 for 6 actual goals. Benfica outscored their 1.26 projection by 3.7. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Estoril attack 0.84 / defence 1.09 against Benfica attack 1.12 / defence 0.51, drawn from 45/45 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Estoril 17% | Draw 30% | Benfica 53%, with Benfica to win its most likely call at 53%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 28%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 55% and landed. Over 3.5 was 12% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 31% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Estoril 38%, Benfica 60%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Estoril's trading profile (45 games, 22 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Benfica's trading profile (45 games, 22 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Benfica arrived the stronger side — 2.33 PPG against 1.22. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Estoril (home/away splits) shipped 5 against a 1.27 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Benfica (home/away splits) scored 5 against a 2.18 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.