Chaves 0-0 Santa Clara – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Chaves at 40% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Chaves vs Santa Clara encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Estádio Municipal Eng. Manuel Branco Teixeira plays host to Chaves versus Santa Clara in Primeira Liga, Regular Season - 12. Kick-off: Monday 7 November 2022 at 20:15 UTC.
Form
Chaves (all games): 4W 3D 3L across 10 Primeira Liga fixtures this term — 1.50 PPG. Last five: L D W W L. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Chaves, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Estádio Municipal Eng. Manuel Branco Teixeira, Chaves have gone 2W 3D 1L this season (6 games, 1.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.33 goals scored and 0.83 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 67% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Santa Clara have collected 0.80 PPG across 10 Primeira Liga outings this season: 2W 2D 6L. Last five: D L L W D. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Santa Clara, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Santa Clara's away record: 1W 3D 6L from 10 road trips in Primeira Liga this season (0.60 PPG). Away from home they average 0.40 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
The points-per-game gap of 0.70 in Chaves's favour (1.50 vs 0.80) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.
Trading Data
Chaves goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (13 games, 6 at home): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures in home games; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 17% of games (home games); they fail to score in 38% of games.
Santa Clara goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (13 games, 6 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 17% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (away games); they fail to score in 38% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Chaves 38% versus Santa Clara 46%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Chaves 31% | Santa Clara 38%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Chaves 1.10 xG and Santa Clara 0.88 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Chaves attack 0.911 / defence 1.073 | Santa Clara attack 0.760 / defence 0.890. League average goals — home 1.356 / away 1.074. Data: 11 Chaves games / 45 Santa Clara games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Chaves 40% | Draw 31% | Santa Clara 29%. Fair-value odds: Chaves 2.50 | Draw 3.23 | Santa Clara 3.45. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 32% | BTTS probability 39% | Total xG 1.98. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 68% probability — total xG of 1.98 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 39% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Chaves as the most likely outcome at 40% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 31% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Chaves if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 1.98 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 32% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.0 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 39% on No. Form rates are neutral: Chaves 67% | Santa Clara 30%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Chaves vs Santa Clara | Competition: Primeira Liga, Regular Season - 12 | Venue: Estádio Municipal Eng. Manuel Branco Teixeira • Kick-off: Monday 7 Nov 2022, 20:15 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Chaves 40% | Draw 31% | Santa Clara 29% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 32% | BTTS 39% | xG Chaves 1.10 / Santa Clara 0.88 • Poisson strength factors: Chaves attack 0.911 / def 1.073 | Santa Clara attack 0.760 / def 0.890 | league avg home 1.356 / away 1.074 • Poisson stance: Chaves (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.10
Chaves xG
Expected Goals
0.88
Santa Clara xG
39%
BTTS
59%
Over 1.5
32%
Over 2.5
14%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Chaves vs Santa Clara kick off?
Chaves vs Santa Clara kicked off at 20:15 on Monday 7 November 2022 at Estádio Municipal Eng. Manuel Branco Teixeira.
What was the final score in Chaves vs Santa Clara?
Chaves 0 - 0 Santa Clara.
Where is Chaves vs Santa Clara being played?
The match is being played at Estádio Municipal Eng. Manuel Branco Teixeira.
What competition is Chaves vs Santa Clara part of?
Chaves vs Santa Clara is a Regular Season - 12 fixture in the Primeira Liga (Portugal).
Who is favourite to win Chaves vs Santa Clara?
Our statistical model gives Chaves a 40% chance of winning, Santa Clara a 29% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Chaves the favourite.
Will both teams score in Chaves vs Santa Clara?
Our model estimates a 39% probability that both Chaves and Santa Clara will score (BTTS).
Will Chaves vs Santa Clara have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 32%.
What is the head-to-head record between Chaves and Santa Clara?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Chaves and Santa Clara in?
Chaves (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-D-W-W-L. Santa Clara (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.20 | L5 D-L-L-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Chaves's attack rating (0.91) and Santa Clara's defence rating (0.89), the model arrives at 1.10 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Santa Clara's attack (0.76x) against Chaves's defence (1.07x) — and the away total comes out at 0.88.
These ratings are built from 11/45 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 0-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 15.6%. Close behind: 1-1 (15.1%), 1-0 (13.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 44% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Chaves Win
40%
2.47
31%
3.25
29%
3.48
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
15.2%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
13.9%
Draw
1 – 1
13.4%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.10
Chaves xG
Total xG
1.98
0.88
Santa Clara xG
2.47
40%
Home win
3.25
31%
Draw
3.48
29%
Away win
Goals Markets
59%
Over 1.5
1.69
41%
Under 1.5
2.44
32%
Over 2.5
3.12
68%
Under 2.5
1.47
14%
Over 3.5
7.14
86%
Under 3.5
1.16
5%
Over 4.5
20.00
95%
Under 4.5
1.05
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
39%
BTTS Yes
2.57
61%
BTTS No
1.64
Clean Sheet
42%
2.40
33%
3.00
Win to Nil
17%
5.93
10%
10.46
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 13.9 | 12.1 | 5.3 | 1.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 15.2 | 13.4 | 5.9 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.4 | 7.3 | 3.2 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 3.1 | 2.7 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.8 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Chaves vs Santa Clara?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.6%.
How many goals are Chaves and Santa Clara expected to score?
The model projects 1.10 expected goals for Chaves and 0.88 for Santa Clara, a combined total of 1.98.
How confident is the prediction model for Chaves vs Santa Clara?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Chaves's recent record stands at 5W 3D 5L from 13 games, a 1.38 PPG return, with L-D-W-W-L in the last five. The sample for Chaves is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Santa Clara, meanwhile, have gone 3W 3D 7L across 13 games — 0.92 PPG, with D-L-L-W-D in their last five. The sample for Santa Clara is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Chaves by 0.46 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Santa Clara heading into this one.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Chaves have managed 2W 3D 1L from 6 games — 1.50 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Santa Clara's away record stands at 1W 0D 5L across 6 trips, a 0.50 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 0.92 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Santa Clara's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Chaves come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Chaves are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.23 conceded per game recently; Santa Clara are on 0.77 scored and 1.23 conceded.
Last 13 Results — Primeira Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Chaves
Blended
Santa Clara
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Chaves and Santa Clara in coming into this match?
Chaves have gone 5W 3D 5L in their last 13 games (1.38 PPG), while Santa Clara have gone 3W 3D 7L in their last 13 (0.92 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Chaves at home or Santa Clara away?
Chaves's home record (1.50 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Chaves at home: 1.50 PPG; Santa Clara away: 0.50 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 2 times since November 2022 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Primeira Liga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 23 April 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Chaves
2
Draws
0
Santa Clara
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Chaves and Santa Clara?
From 2 meetings on record, Chaves have won 0, Santa Clara have won 0, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Chaves and Santa Clara last play each other?
They last met on 23 April 2023, when Santa Clara 1-1 Chaves.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Chaves are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 33% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Santa Clara are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Chaves 67%, Santa Clara 17% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 17% for Chaves and 33% for Santa Clara.
On the defensive side: Santa Clara in 67%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Chaves home games / Santa Clara away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Chaves play Santa Clara?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 67% of Chaves's recent matches and 17% of Santa Clara's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Chaves vs Santa Clara usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 17% of Chaves's recent games and 33% of Santa Clara's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Chaves and Santa Clara tend to score early?
Chaves have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, Santa Clara in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Chaves's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Estádio Municipal Eng. Manuel Branco Teixeira, Regular Season - 12, as Chaves and Santa Clara drew 0-0 in the Primeira Liga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Chaves 1.10 xG and Santa Clara 0.88 xG, a combined 1.98. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Chaves fell 1.1 short of their projected output. Santa Clara landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Chaves attack 0.91 / defence 1.07 against Santa Clara attack 0.76 / defence 0.89, drawn from 11/45 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Chaves 40% | Draw 31% | Santa Clara 29%, with Chaves to win its most likely call at 40%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 31%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 32%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 59% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 39% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 35% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Chaves 31%, Santa Clara 38%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 42%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Chaves's trading profile (13 games, 6 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 38% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 38% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Santa Clara's trading profile (13 games, 6 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 38% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Chaves arrived the stronger side — 1.38 PPG against 0.92. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Chaves (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.33 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 0.83 average — tighter than their form line. Santa Clara (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.50 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.