Chaves 2-0 Moreirense – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Chaves at 46%, yet other data sources diverge — this Chaves vs Moreirense fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Estádio Municipal Eng. Manuel Branco Teixeira plays host to Chaves versus Moreirense in Primeira Liga, Relegation Round. Kick-off: Saturday 21 May 2022 at 20:00 UTC.
Current Form
Moreirense (all games): 3W 0D 7L across 10 Primeira Liga outings this term — 0.90 points per game. Last five: W L L L W. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
When travelling in Primeira Liga this season, Moreirense have posted 2W 2D 6L from 10 away outings — 0.80 PPG. Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Chaves 1.24 xG and Moreirense 0.81 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Chaves attack 0.850 / defence 1.150 | Moreirense attack 0.613 / defence 1.308. League average goals — home 1.119 / away 1.146. Moreirense bring a strong defensive rating of 1.308 — this is suppressing Chaves's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 0 Chaves games / 34 Moreirense games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Chaves 46% | Draw 31% | Moreirense 23%. Fair-value odds: Chaves 2.17 | Draw 3.23 | Moreirense 4.35. Chaves hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (31%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 34% | BTTS probability 40% | Total xG 2.05. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 66% probability — total xG of 2.05 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 40% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Chaves at 46% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 31% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Chaves if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 2.05 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 34% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Chaves vs Moreirense | Competition: Primeira Liga, Relegation Round | Venue: Estádio Municipal Eng. Manuel Branco Teixeira • Kick-off: Saturday 21 May 2022, 20:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Chaves 46% | Draw 31% | Moreirense 23% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 34% | BTTS 40% | xG Chaves 1.24 / Moreirense 0.81 • Poisson strength factors: Chaves attack 0.850 / def 1.150 | Moreirense attack 0.613 / def 1.308 | league avg home 1.119 / away 1.146 • Poisson stance: Chaves (46%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.24
Chaves xG
Expected Goals
0.81
Moreirense xG
40%
BTTS
61%
Over 1.5
34%
Over 2.5
15%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Chaves vs Moreirense kick off?
Chaves vs Moreirense kicked off at 20:00 on Saturday 21 May 2022 at Estádio Municipal Eng. Manuel Branco Teixeira.
What was the final score in Chaves vs Moreirense?
Chaves 2 - 0 Moreirense.
Where is Chaves vs Moreirense being played?
The match is being played at Estádio Municipal Eng. Manuel Branco Teixeira.
What competition is Chaves vs Moreirense part of?
Chaves vs Moreirense is a Relegation Round fixture in the Primeira Liga (Portugal).
Who is favourite to win Chaves vs Moreirense?
Our statistical model gives Chaves a 46% chance of winning, Moreirense a 23% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Chaves the favourite.
Will both teams score in Chaves vs Moreirense?
Our model estimates a 40% probability that both Chaves and Moreirense will score (BTTS).
Will Chaves vs Moreirense have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 34%.
What is the head-to-head record between Chaves and Moreirense?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Chaves and Moreirense in?
Moreirense (all comps): 3W-0D-7L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-L-L-L-W. Moreirense away split: 0.80 PPG from 10 | GF 0.70 / GA 1.60 | CS 1.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Chaves's attack at 0.85x the league average against Moreirense's defence at 1.31x — combine the two and it projects 1.24 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Moreirense's attack (0.61x) against Chaves's defence (1.15x) — and the away total comes out at 0.81.
These ratings are built from 0/34 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.6% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (14.5%), 1-0 (14.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 43% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Chaves Win
46%
2.18
31%
3.26
23%
4.27
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
16.0%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
12.9%
Draw
1 – 1
12.9%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.24
Chaves xG
Total xG
2.05
0.81
Moreirense xG
2.18
46%
Home win
3.26
31%
Draw
4.27
23%
Away win
Goals Markets
61%
Over 1.5
1.64
39%
Under 1.5
2.56
34%
Over 2.5
2.94
66%
Under 2.5
1.52
15%
Over 3.5
6.67
85%
Under 3.5
1.18
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
40%
BTTS Yes
2.50
60%
BTTS No
1.67
Clean Sheet
45%
2.24
29%
3.47
Win to Nil
20%
4.89
7%
14.80
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.9 | 10.4 | 4.2 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 16.0 | 12.9 | 5.2 | 1.4 | 0.3 | – |
| 2 | 10.0 | 8.0 | 3.2 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 4.1 | 3.3 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.3 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Chaves vs Moreirense?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.6%.
How many goals are Chaves and Moreirense expected to score?
The model projects 1.24 expected goals for Chaves and 0.81 for Moreirense, a combined total of 2.05.
How confident is the prediction model for Chaves vs Moreirense?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
Last 0 Results — Primeira Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Chaves
Pre-Season
Moreirense
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 4 times since May 2022 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Primeira Liga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 10 February 2024, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
Moreirense go into this on the back of 3 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Chaves have gone 1W 0D 1L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Moreirense — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Chaves
0
Draws
3
Moreirense
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Chaves and Moreirense?
From 4 meetings on record, Chaves have won 1, Moreirense have won 3, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Chaves and Moreirense last play each other?
They last met on 10 February 2024, when Moreirense 1-0 Chaves.
Who has won more matches between Chaves and Moreirense?
Moreirense have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 4 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Chaves home games / Moreirense away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
Chaves cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Moreirense.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Chaves beat Moreirense 2-0 at Estádio Municipal Eng. Manuel Branco Teixeira, Relegation Round, in the Primeira Liga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Chaves 1.24 xG and Moreirense 0.81 xG, a combined 2.05. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Moreirense landed 0.8 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Chaves attack 0.85 / defence 1.15 against Moreirense attack 0.61 / defence 1.31, drawn from 0/34 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Chaves 46% | Draw 31% | Moreirense 23%, with Chaves to win its most likely call at 46%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 34%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 61% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 40% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.