Chaves 0-2 Benfica – Result & Analysis

Poisson rates Benfica at 52% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Chaves vs Benfica encounter.

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Analysis

Benfica make the trip to Estádio Municipal Eng. Manuel Branco Teixeira to face Chaves in Primeira Liga (matchday 10). The match kicks off on Saturday 4 November 2023 at 15:30 UK time.

Form

Chaves (all games): 2W 1D 7L across their last 10 — 0.70 PPG. Last five: L D W W L. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 3.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 3.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.

In front of their own supporters, Chaves have posted 5W 1D 4L from their last 10 home games — 1.60 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from their last 10 home games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.60 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.70 — Chaves are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.

Benfica have collected 2.50 PPG across their last 10 games: 8W 1D 1L. Last five: W W W W D. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.20 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not.

Benfica's form when playing away from home: 7W 1D 2L across their last 10 road games (2.20 PPG). They are averaging 2.10 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.

On a straight form reading, Benfica are the stronger side — 1.80 PPG clear of the hosts (2.50 vs 0.70). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.

In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (from Chaves's last 10 home games and Benfica's last 10 away games) — Chaves have seen both teams score in 60% of their games, Benfica in 60%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.

H2H Analysis

The head-to-head record is closely matched — across the 2 H2H matches in our data, the wins are level at 1 apiece, with 0 draws. Neither side has a commanding advantage. With only 2 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.

These two sides have produced goals at a healthy rate, averaging 3.0 per game across the 2 H2H matches we hold. That scoring profile supports the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent of those, on 15 Apr 2023, ended Chaves 1–0 Benfica — a Chaves win.

With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 3.0 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.

Trading Data

Chaves goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 43 games, 21 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 86% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 77% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; of the 8 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 38%; of the 18 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 33%; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (home games); they fail to score in 30% of games.

Benfica goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 43 games, 21 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 67% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 92% of the time; they lead at the break 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 37%; they keep a clean sheet 58% of the time.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Chaves 51% versus Benfica 37%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Chaves 44% | Benfica 60%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Chaves 1.52 xG and Benfica 2.13 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Chaves attack 1.189 / defence 1.285 | Benfica attack 1.269 / defence 0.856. League average goals — home 1.495 / away 1.307. Benfica have an above-average attack rating of 1.269, which lifts their away xG to 2.13. Chaves's defence rating of 1.285 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Benfica's projected output up. Data: built from Chaves's last 43 games and Benfica's last 43.

Result probabilities: Chaves 27% | Draw 21% | Benfica 52%. Fair-value odds: Chaves 3.64 | Draw 4.80 | Benfica 1.93. Benfica hold a narrow Poisson edge at 52% — the draw (21%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 71% | BTTS Yes probability 69% | Total xG 3.65. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 71% — a total xG of 3.65 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 69% — both xG figures (1.52 / 2.13) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.

Picks & Verdict

On the Poisson output, Benfica are the pick at 52% — moderate model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support.

The Poisson model projects 3.65 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 71% — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Chaves's last 10 home games and Benfica's last 10 away games) averaging 3.2 goals per game.

Poisson assigns a 69% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Chaves 60% (last 10 home games) | Benfica 60% (last 10 away games).

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