Chaves 1-1 Arouca – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Arouca at 37%, yet other data sources diverge — this Chaves vs Arouca fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Chaves host Arouca at Estádio Municipal Eng. Manuel Branco Teixeira in Primeira Liga, Regular Season - 16. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 15 January 2023 at 15:30 UTC.
Form Guide
Chaves — All Games: 3W 3D 4L from 10 Primeira Liga outings this season, averaging 1.20 points per game. Last five: L D W L D. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Chaves, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Chaves have posted 2W 4D 2L at Estádio Municipal Eng. Manuel Branco Teixeira — 1.25 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 0.88 conceded per game.
Across all Primeira Liga games this season, Arouca have recorded 4W 3D 3L from 10 outings — 1.50 PPG. Last five: W W L L W. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Arouca, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Arouca away from home this season: 2W 3D 5L from 10 away games — 0.90 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.90 is notably below their overall 1.50 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Chaves 1.20 PPG, Arouca 1.50 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
Trading Patterns
Chaves in-play and half-time data (17 games, 8 at home): they score before half-time in 88% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 12% of games (home games); they fail to score in 41% of games.
Arouca in-play and half-time data (17 games, 8 at away): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (away games); they fail to score in 35% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Chaves 41% versus Arouca 41%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Chaves 29% | Arouca 41%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Chaves 1.13 xG and Arouca 1.16 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Chaves attack 0.727 / defence 1.196 | Arouca attack 0.984 / defence 1.177. League average goals — home 1.317 / away 0.986. Chaves's attack strength of 0.727 is below the league average — the 1.13 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 15 Chaves games / 49 Arouca games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Chaves 35% | Draw 28% | Arouca 37%. Fair-value odds: Chaves 2.86 | Draw 3.57 | Arouca 2.70. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 40% | BTTS probability 46% | Total xG 2.29. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 60% — total xG of 2.29 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 46% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Arouca are the pick at 37% — marginal model lean. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Arouca offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.29 combined xG gives a 40% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.1 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 46% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Chaves 50% | Arouca 50%.
The outsider holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Chaves vs Arouca | Competition: Primeira Liga, Regular Season - 16 | Venue: Estádio Municipal Eng. Manuel Branco Teixeira • Kick-off: Sunday 15 Jan 2023, 15:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Chaves 35% | Draw 28% | Arouca 37% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 40% | BTTS 46% | xG Chaves 1.13 / Arouca 1.16 • Poisson strength factors: Chaves attack 0.727 / def 1.196 | Arouca attack 0.984 / def 1.177 | league avg home 1.317 / away 0.986 • Poisson stance: Arouca (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.13
Chaves xG
Expected Goals
1.16
Arouca xG
46%
BTTS
67%
Over 1.5
40%
Over 2.5
20%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Chaves vs Arouca kick off?
Chaves vs Arouca kicked off at 15:30 on Sunday 15 January 2023 at Estádio Municipal Eng. Manuel Branco Teixeira.
What was the final score in Chaves vs Arouca?
Chaves 1 - 1 Arouca.
Where is Chaves vs Arouca being played?
The match is being played at Estádio Municipal Eng. Manuel Branco Teixeira.
What competition is Chaves vs Arouca part of?
Chaves vs Arouca is a Regular Season - 16 fixture in the Primeira Liga (Portugal).
Who is favourite to win Chaves vs Arouca?
Our statistical model gives Chaves a 35% chance of winning, Arouca a 37% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Arouca the favourite.
Will both teams score in Chaves vs Arouca?
Our model estimates a 46% probability that both Chaves and Arouca will score (BTTS).
Will Chaves vs Arouca have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 40%.
What is the head-to-head record between Chaves and Arouca?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Chaves and Arouca in?
Chaves (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-D-W-L-D. Arouca (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-W-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Chaves's attacking strength (0.73x league average) is weighed against Arouca's defensive record (1.18x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.13. The same calculation in reverse, Arouca's attack versus Chaves's defence, projects 1.16 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 15/49 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 15.0%. Close behind: 0-0 (11.9%), 0-1 (10.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Arouca Win
35%
2.86
28%
3.51
37%
2.73
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.3%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
11.8%
Away win
1 – 0
11.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.13
Chaves xG
Total xG
2.29
1.16
Arouca xG
2.86
35%
Home win
3.51
28%
Draw
2.73
37%
Away win
Goals Markets
67%
Over 1.5
1.49
33%
Under 1.5
3.03
40%
Over 2.5
2.50
60%
Under 2.5
1.67
20%
Over 3.5
5.00
80%
Under 3.5
1.25
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
46%
BTTS Yes
2.16
54%
BTTS No
1.87
Clean Sheet
31%
3.19
32%
3.08
Win to Nil
11%
9.13
12%
8.42
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.2 | 11.8 | 6.8 | 2.6 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 11.4 | 13.3 | 7.7 | 3.0 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.4 | 7.5 | 4.3 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.4 | 2.8 | 1.6 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.7 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Chaves vs Arouca?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.0%.
How many goals are Chaves and Arouca expected to score?
The model projects 1.13 expected goals for Chaves and 1.16 for Arouca, a combined total of 2.29.
How confident is the prediction model for Chaves vs Arouca?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 17 outings, Chaves have picked up 1.35 PPG on a 6W 5D 6L record — L-D-W-L-D across the most recent five. The sample for Chaves is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Arouca's form line: 6W 5D 6L from 17 games, 1.35 PPG, last five W-W-L-L-W. The sample for Arouca is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Chaves on 1.35 PPG, Arouca on 1.35. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Chaves have posted 1.25 PPG from 8 outings (2W 4D 2L).
On the road, Arouca have gone 2W 3D 3L from 8 away games — 1.12 PPG when travelling.
The Goals Picture
Chaves are averaging 0.94 goals scored and 1.18 conceded per game recently; Arouca are on 1.00 scored and 1.47 conceded.
Defensively: Arouca in 35% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 17 Results — Primeira Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Chaves
Blended
Arouca
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Chaves and Arouca in coming into this match?
Chaves have gone 6W 5D 6L in their last 17 games (1.35 PPG), while Arouca have gone 6W 5D 6L in their last 17 (1.35 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Chaves at home or Arouca away?
Chaves's home record (1.25 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Chaves at home: 1.25 PPG; Arouca away: 1.12 PPG.
Have Chaves or Arouca been keeping clean sheets recently?
Chaves have kept a clean sheet in 24% of their recent games, Arouca in 35%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Chaves and Arouca runs to 4 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to January 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Primeira Liga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 1 March 2024, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 1 Mar 2024, when Arouca won 1-5 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Chaves's record when hosting Arouca specifically: 0W 1D 1L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Chaves
1
Draws
2
Arouca
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Chaves and Arouca?
From 4 meetings on record, Chaves have won 1, Arouca have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Chaves and Arouca last play each other?
They last met on 1 March 2024, when Chaves 1-5 Arouca.
Who has won more matches between Chaves and Arouca?
Arouca have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Chaves are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 88% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 25% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Arouca see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Chaves 50%, Arouca 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 12% for Chaves and 38% for Arouca.
On the defensive side: Chaves have failed to score in 38% of games; Arouca in 38%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Chaves home games / Arouca away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Chaves play Arouca?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Chaves's recent matches and 50% of Arouca's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Chaves vs Arouca usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 12% of Chaves's recent games and 38% of Arouca's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Chaves and Arouca tend to score early?
Chaves have had a goal before half-time in 88% of their recent matches, Arouca in 50% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Chaves and Arouca share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Chaves and Arouca finished level at 1-1 at Estádio Municipal Eng. Manuel Branco Teixeira, Regular Season - 16, in the Primeira Liga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Chaves 1.13 xG and Arouca 1.16 xG, a combined 2.29. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Chaves attack 0.73 / defence 1.20 against Arouca attack 0.98 / defence 1.18, drawn from 15/49 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Chaves 35% | Draw 28% | Arouca 37%, with Arouca to win its most likely call at 37%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 40%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 67% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 35% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Chaves 29%, Arouca 41%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 41%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Chaves's trading profile (17 games, 8 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 41% of their matches — today it did.
Arouca's trading profile (17 games, 8 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 41% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Chaves 1.35 PPG, Arouca 1.35 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.