Casa Pia 0-1 Vizela – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Casa Pia at 39% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Casa Pia vs Vizela encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Vizela make the trip to Estádio Nacional to face Casa Pia in Primeira Liga, Regular Season - 9. The match kicks off on Sunday 9 October 2022 at 18:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Casa Pia have collected 2.12 PPG across 8 Primeira Liga outings this season: 5W 2D 1L. Last five: W D W W W. They are averaging 1.12 goals per game and conceding 0.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.50 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 5 clean sheets from 8 games (62%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in only 25% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence. This season is still relatively young for Casa Pia, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Casa Pia have posted 2W 1D 1L at Estádio Nacional — 1.75 PPG. At home they are averaging 0.75 goals scored and 0.25 conceded per game. 3 clean sheets from 4 home games (75%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Estádio Nacional.
Vizela's overall Primeira Liga record this term: 2W 3D 5L from 10 games (0.90 PPG). Last five: D L L L W. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Vizela, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Vizela have gone 2W 2D 6L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.80 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form ledger tips toward Casa Pia. A 1.22 PPG lead over Vizela (2.12 vs 0.90) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.
Trading & In-Play
Casa Pia — key trading statistics (8 games, 4 at home): they score before half-time in 0% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 0% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 0% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 62% of the time; they fail to score in 38% of games.
Vizela — key trading statistics (8 games, 4 at away): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 25% of games (away games); they fail to score in 38% of games.
The in-play data supports BTTS No — both teams show low combined scoring rates (Casa Pia 25% | Vizela 38%). Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Casa Pia 25% | Vizela 25%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Casa Pia 1.00 xG and Vizela 0.82 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Casa Pia attack 0.743 / defence 0.835 | Vizela attack 0.903 / defence 1.005. League average goals — home 1.346 / away 1.090. Casa Pia's attack strength of 0.743 is below the league average — the 1.00 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 8 Casa Pia games / 42 Vizela games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Casa Pia 39% | Draw 32% | Vizela 29%. Fair-value odds: Casa Pia 2.56 | Draw 3.12 | Vizela 3.45. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 32% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 28% | BTTS probability 36% | Total xG 1.82. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 72% probability — total xG of 1.82 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 36% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Casa Pia are the pick at 39% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 32% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Casa Pia if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 1.82 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 28% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 1.9 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 36% on No. Form rates corroborate: Casa Pia 0% | Vizela 70% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Casa Pia vs Vizela | Competition: Primeira Liga, Regular Season - 9 | Venue: Estádio Nacional • Kick-off: Sunday 9 Oct 2022, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Casa Pia 39% | Draw 32% | Vizela 29% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 28% | BTTS 36% | xG Casa Pia 1.00 / Vizela 0.82 • Poisson strength factors: Casa Pia attack 0.743 / def 0.835 | Vizela attack 0.903 / def 1.005 | league avg home 1.346 / away 1.090 • Poisson stance: Casa Pia (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.00
Casa Pia xG
Expected Goals
0.82
Vizela xG
36%
BTTS
54%
Over 1.5
28%
Over 2.5
11%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Casa Pia vs Vizela kick off?
Casa Pia vs Vizela kicked off at 18:00 on Sunday 9 October 2022 at Estádio Nacional.
What was the final score in Casa Pia vs Vizela?
Casa Pia 0 - 1 Vizela.
Where is Casa Pia vs Vizela being played?
The match is being played at Estádio Nacional.
What competition is Casa Pia vs Vizela part of?
Casa Pia vs Vizela is a Regular Season - 9 fixture in the Primeira Liga (Portugal).
Who is favourite to win Casa Pia vs Vizela?
Our statistical model gives Casa Pia a 39% chance of winning, Vizela a 29% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making Casa Pia the favourite.
Will both teams score in Casa Pia vs Vizela?
Our model estimates a 36% probability that both Casa Pia and Vizela will score (BTTS).
Will Casa Pia vs Vizela have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 28%.
What is the head-to-head record between Casa Pia and Vizela?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Casa Pia and Vizela in?
Casa Pia (all comps): 5W-2D-1L in 8 | 2.12 PPG | GF 1.12 / GA 0.50 | L5 W-D-W-W-W. Vizela (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.40 | L5 D-L-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Casa Pia's attack rating (0.74) and Vizela's defence rating (1.00), the model arrives at 1.00 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Vizela's attack (0.90x) against Casa Pia's defence (0.83x) — and the away total comes out at 0.82.
These ratings are built from 8/42 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 0-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 17.8%. Close behind: 1-1 (15.0%), 1-0 (14.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 47% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Casa Pia Win
39%
2.58
32%
3.09
29%
3.47
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
16.2%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
16.1%
Draw
1 – 1
13.3%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.00
Casa Pia xG
Total xG
1.82
0.82
Vizela xG
2.58
39%
Home win
3.09
32%
Draw
3.47
29%
Away win
Goals Markets
54%
Over 1.5
1.85
46%
Under 1.5
2.17
28%
Over 2.5
3.57
72%
Under 2.5
1.39
11%
Over 3.5
9.09
89%
Under 3.5
1.12
4%
Over 4.5
25.00
96%
Under 4.5
1.04
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
36%
BTTS Yes
2.82
64%
BTTS No
1.55
Clean Sheet
44%
2.27
37%
2.73
Win to Nil
17%
5.87
11%
9.46
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 16.1 | 13.2 | 5.4 | 1.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 16.2 | 13.3 | 5.5 | 1.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.1 | 6.7 | 2.7 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 2.7 | 2.2 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.7 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Casa Pia vs Vizela?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 17.8%.
How many goals are Casa Pia and Vizela expected to score?
The model projects 1.00 expected goals for Casa Pia and 0.82 for Vizela, a combined total of 1.82.
How confident is the prediction model for Casa Pia vs Vizela?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Casa Pia come into this having played 8 games, going 5W 2D 1L for 2.12 points per game. Their last five reads W-D-W-W-W. The sample for Casa Pia is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Vizela sit at 1.00 PPG from 8 outings (2W 2D 4L), a run that reads D-L-L-L-W across their last five. The sample for Vizela is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Casa Pia carry the stronger recent form of the two, 1.12 PPG clear of Vizela — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home & Away Splits
Casa Pia's home form reads 2W 1D 1L across 4 games on their own ground, a 1.75 PPG return.
Away from home, Vizela have taken 1.00 points per game from 4 outings (1W 1D 2L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Casa Pia come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Casa Pia are averaging 1.12 goals scored and 0.50 conceded per game recently; Vizela are on 0.75 scored and 1.12 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Casa Pia have seen both teams score in 25% of their recent games.
Defensively: Casa Pia have kept a clean sheet in 62% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 8 Results — Primeira Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Casa Pia
Blended
Vizela
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Casa Pia and Vizela in coming into this match?
Casa Pia have gone 5W 2D 1L in their last 8 games (2.12 PPG), while Vizela have gone 2W 2D 4L in their last 8 (1.00 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Casa Pia at home or Vizela away?
Casa Pia's home record (1.75 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Casa Pia at home: 1.75 PPG; Vizela away: 1.00 PPG.
Have Casa Pia or Vizela been keeping clean sheets recently?
Casa Pia have kept a clean sheet in 62% of their recent games, Vizela in 25%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 4 times since October 2022 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Primeira Liga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 31 March 2024, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Casa Pia won 0-4 on 31 Mar 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Casa Pia have gone 0W 0D 2L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Vizela — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Casa Pia
0
Draws
3
Vizela
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Casa Pia and Vizela?
From 4 meetings on record, Casa Pia have won 1, Vizela have won 3, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Casa Pia and Vizela last play each other?
They last met on 31 March 2024, when Vizela 0-4 Casa Pia.
Who has won more matches between Casa Pia and Vizela?
Vizela have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Casa Pia tend to start slowly — only 0% of their games have a goal by half-time.
Vizela see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 25% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Goals & Clean Sheets
Neither side has been leaking BTTS chances often — 0% (Casa Pia) and 50% (Vizela) both sit on the low side, favouring BTTS No.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 0% for Casa Pia and 25% for Vizela.
On the defensive side: Casa Pia keep a clean sheet in 75% of their matches; Casa Pia have failed to score in 50% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Casa Pia home games / Vizela away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Casa Pia play Vizela?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 0% of Casa Pia's recent matches and 50% of Vizela's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Casa Pia vs Vizela usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 0% of Casa Pia's recent games and 25% of Vizela's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Casa Pia and Vizela tend to score early?
Casa Pia have had a goal before half-time in 0% of their recent matches, Vizela in 50% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Vizela defy the odds to beat Casa Pia 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Vizela beat Casa Pia 0-1 at Estádio Nacional, Regular Season - 9, in the Primeira Liga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Casa Pia 1.00 xG and Vizela 0.82 xG, a combined 1.82. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Casa Pia fell 1.0 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Casa Pia attack 0.74 / defence 0.83 against Vizela attack 0.90 / defence 1.00, drawn from 8/42 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Casa Pia 39% | Draw 32% | Vizela 29%, with Casa Pia to win its most likely call at 39%. The actual Vizela win had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 28%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 54% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 36% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 25% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Casa Pia 25%, Vizela 25%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 31%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Casa Pia's trading profile (8 games, 4 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 25% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 62% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 38% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Vizela's trading profile (8 games, 4 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 38% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Casa Pia arrived the stronger side — 2.12 PPG against 1.00. Form was overturned, with Vizela winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Vizela (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.25 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.