Casa Pia 0-0 Boavista – Result & Analysis

Poisson model rates Boavista at 49% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Casa Pia face Boavista.

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Pre-Match Analysis

Casa Pia and Boavista meet at Estádio Municipal de Rio Maior in Primeira Liga (matchday 20). This fixture gets under way on Monday 5 February 2024 at 20:15 UK time.

Form & Momentum

Casa Pia have collected 0.90 PPG across their last 10 games: 3W 0D 7L. Last five: L W L L L. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 2.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.60 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%).

At home, Casa Pia have gone 1W 3D 6L in their last 10 home games (0.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.70 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game.

Boavista's record over their last 10 games: 1W 2D 7L (0.50 PPG). Last five: L D W L L. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 2.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.20 per game is a high rate — their defence has been exposed regularly. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.

On the road, Boavista have gone 4W 1D 5L in their last 10 away fixtures (1.30 PPG). Away from home they average 1.70 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.30 exceeds their overall 0.50 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.

A near-identical PPG reading — 0.90 for Casa Pia, 0.50 for Boavista — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.

H2H History

The head-to-head record is closely matched — across the 3 H2H matches in our data, Casa Pia edge it 1 wins to 0, with 2 draws. Neither side has a commanding advantage. With only 3 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.

Scoring has been limited in the 3 H2H matches in our data, averaging 1.3 goals per game, which makes Under 2.5 the head-to-head-backed angle in the goals market. The most recent of those, on 27 Aug 2023, ended Casa Pia 1–1 Boavista — a draw.

With a balanced win record and just 1.3 goals per game, the H2H data points toward a tight, low-scoring contest — Under 2.5 is the stronger head-to-head angle regardless of which side wins.

Trading & In-Play

Casa Pia — key trading statistics (last 53 games, 26 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 31% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; of the 12 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 50%; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 35% of games (home games); they fail to score in 40% of games.

Boavista — key trading statistics (last 53 games, 26 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 65% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; of the 15 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 27%; of the 17 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 29%; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 42%.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Casa Pia 43% versus Boavista 66%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Casa Pia 42% | Boavista 58%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Casa Pia 1.06 xG and Boavista 1.57 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Casa Pia attack 0.641 / defence 1.235 | Boavista attack 0.996 / defence 1.097. League average goals — home 1.514 / away 1.280. Casa Pia's attack rating of 0.641 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 1.06. Casa Pia's defence rating of 1.235 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Boavista's projected output up. Data: built from Casa Pia's last 53 games and Boavista's last 53.

Result probabilities: Casa Pia 26% | Draw 25% | Boavista 49%. Fair-value odds: Casa Pia 3.90 | Draw 3.95 | Boavista 2.04. Boavista hold a narrow Poisson edge at 49% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 49% | BTTS Yes probability 52% | Total xG 2.64. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 49%/51% — the total xG of 2.64 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 52% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Verdict

The Poisson model's primary lean is Boavista at 49% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 25% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Boavista if the outright odds are short.

Poisson projects 2.64 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 51% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by the H2H data averaging 1.3 goals per game across 3 H2H matches.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 52% on Yes. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Casa Pia 50% (last 10 home games) | Boavista 70% (last 10 away games).

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