Boavista 1-1 GIL Vicente – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates GIL Vicente at 51% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Boavista vs GIL Vicente encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
GIL Vicente make the trip to Estádio do Bessa Século XXI to face Boavista in Primeira Liga, Regular Season - 18. The match kicks off on Saturday 15 January 2022 at 15:30 UTC.
Form
Boavista (all games): 1W 5D 4L across 10 Primeira Liga fixtures this term — 0.80 PPG. Last five: D L W D D. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Boavista, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Boavista have posted 3W 5D 1L at Estádio do Bessa Século XXI — 1.56 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.33 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 9 games (44%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 56% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.56 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.80 — Boavista are significantly better at Estádio do Bessa Século XXI than their overall form suggests.
GIL Vicente's overall Primeira Liga record this term: 5W 3D 2L from 10 games (1.80 PPG). Last five: W W L W W. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 1.20. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for GIL Vicente, so this record blends games from this season and last.
GIL Vicente's form when playing away from home: 4W 3D 1L across 8 road games this term (1.88 PPG). Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 0.88 conceded per game. 3 clean sheets from 8 away games (38%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
The travelling side arrive in better shape. GIL Vicente are 1.00 PPG clear of Boavista in recent Primeira Liga fixtures (1.80 vs 0.80). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Boavista lead 0W to 1W over the last 1 encounters, with 0 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.0 per game across 1 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 9 Aug 2021, ended 0–3 with GIL Vicente winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
Boavista — key trading statistics (17 games, 8 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 80% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 12% of games (home games).
GIL Vicente — key trading statistics (17 games, 8 at away): they score before half-time in 38% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 71% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Boavista 65% versus GIL Vicente 47%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Boavista 41% | GIL Vicente 59%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Boavista 0.91 xG and GIL Vicente 1.50 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Boavista attack 0.813 / defence 1.109 | GIL Vicente attack 0.960 / defence 0.976. League average goals — home 1.151 / away 1.410. Data: 17 Boavista games / 17 GIL Vicente games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Boavista 23% | Draw 26% | GIL Vicente 51%. Fair-value odds: Boavista 4.35 | Draw 3.85 | GIL Vicente 1.96. GIL Vicente hold a narrow Poisson edge at 51% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 43% | BTTS probability 47% | Total xG 2.41. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 57% — total xG of 2.41 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 47% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, GIL Vicente are the pick at 51% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on GIL Vicente if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.41 combined xG gives a 43% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 47%. Form rates are neutral: Boavista 56% | GIL Vicente 50%.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Boavista vs GIL Vicente | Competition: Primeira Liga, Regular Season - 18 | Venue: Estádio do Bessa Século XXI • Kick-off: Saturday 15 Jan 2022, 15:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Boavista 23% | Draw 26% | GIL Vicente 51% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 43% | BTTS 47% | xG Boavista 0.91 / GIL Vicente 1.50 • Poisson strength factors: Boavista attack 0.813 / def 1.109 | GIL Vicente attack 0.960 / def 0.976 | league avg home 1.151 / away 1.410 • Poisson stance: GIL Vicente (51%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.91
Boavista xG
Expected Goals
1.50
GIL Vicente xG
47%
BTTS
70%
Over 1.5
43%
Over 2.5
22%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Boavista vs GIL Vicente kick off?
Boavista vs GIL Vicente kicked off at 15:30 on Saturday 15 January 2022 at Estádio do Bessa Século XXI.
What was the final score in Boavista vs GIL Vicente?
Boavista 1 - 1 GIL Vicente.
Where is Boavista vs GIL Vicente being played?
The match is being played at Estádio do Bessa Século XXI.
What competition is Boavista vs GIL Vicente part of?
Boavista vs GIL Vicente is a Regular Season - 18 fixture in the Primeira Liga (Portugal).
Who is favourite to win Boavista vs GIL Vicente?
Our statistical model gives Boavista a 23% chance of winning, GIL Vicente a 51% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making GIL Vicente the favourite.
Will both teams score in Boavista vs GIL Vicente?
Our model estimates a 47% probability that both Boavista and GIL Vicente will score (BTTS).
Will Boavista vs GIL Vicente have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 43%.
What is the head-to-head record between Boavista and GIL Vicente?
Record (1 meetings): Boavista 0W | Draws 0 | GIL Vicente 1W.
What form are Boavista and GIL Vicente in?
Boavista (all comps): 1W-5D-4L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.80 | L5 D-L-W-D-D. GIL Vicente (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-W-L-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Boavista's attack at 0.81x the league average against GIL Vicente's defence at 0.98x — combine the two and it projects 0.91 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — GIL Vicente's attack (0.96x) against Boavista's defence (1.11x) — and the away total comes out at 1.50.
These ratings are built from 17/17 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.9% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-1 (11.8%), 0-0 (10.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
GIL Vicente Win
23%
4.38
26%
3.80
51%
1.97
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
13.4%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.3%
Draw
0 – 2
10.1%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.91
Boavista xG
Total xG
2.41
1.50
GIL Vicente xG
4.38
23%
Home win
3.80
26%
Draw
1.97
51%
Away win
Goals Markets
69%
Over 1.5
1.45
31%
Under 1.5
3.23
43%
Over 2.5
2.33
57%
Under 2.5
1.75
22%
Over 3.5
4.55
78%
Under 3.5
1.28
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
47%
BTTS Yes
2.14
53%
BTTS No
1.87
Clean Sheet
22%
4.48
40%
2.49
Win to Nil
5%
19.64
20%
4.90
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.0 | 13.4 | 10.1 | 5.0 | 1.9 | 0.6 |
| 1 | 8.2 | 12.3 | 9.2 | 4.6 | 1.7 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 3.7 | 5.6 | 4.2 | 2.1 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 1.1 | 1.7 | 1.3 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | – | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Boavista vs GIL Vicente?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.9%.
How many goals are Boavista and GIL Vicente expected to score?
The model projects 0.91 expected goals for Boavista and 1.50 for GIL Vicente, a combined total of 2.41.
How confident is the prediction model for Boavista vs GIL Vicente?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 51%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Boavista come into this having played 17 games, going 3W 8D 6L for 1.00 points per game. Their last five reads D-L-W-D-D. The sample for Boavista is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, GIL Vicente sit at 1.53 PPG from 17 outings (7W 5D 5L), a run that reads W-W-L-W-W across their last five. The sample for GIL Vicente is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
GIL Vicente carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.53 PPG clear of Boavista — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
How They Fare by Venue
Boavista's home form reads 2W 5D 1L across 8 games on their own ground, a 1.38 PPG return.
Away from home, GIL Vicente have taken 1.88 points per game from 8 outings (4W 3D 1L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, GIL Vicente come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Boavista are averaging 1.12 goals scored and 1.59 conceded per game recently; GIL Vicente are on 1.53 scored and 1.18 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Boavista have seen both teams score in 65% of their recent games.
Last 17 Results — Primeira Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Boavista
Blended
GIL Vicente
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Boavista and GIL Vicente in coming into this match?
Boavista have gone 3W 8D 6L in their last 17 games (1.00 PPG), while GIL Vicente have gone 7W 5D 5L in their last 17 (1.53 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Boavista at home or GIL Vicente away?
GIL Vicente's away record (1.88 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Boavista at home: 1.38 PPG; GIL Vicente away: 1.88 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 8 times that we have on record, stretching back to August 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 3 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Primeira Liga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 1 April 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: GIL Vicente won 3-0 on 9 Aug 2021, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Boavista have gone 1W 2D 1L from 4 meetings on their own ground against GIL Vicente — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
2
Boavista
2
Draws
4
GIL Vicente
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Boavista and GIL Vicente?
From 8 meetings on record, Boavista have won 2, GIL Vicente have won 4, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Boavista and GIL Vicente last play each other?
They last met on 1 April 2025, when Boavista 1-3 GIL Vicente.
Who has won more matches between Boavista and GIL Vicente?
GIL Vicente have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Boavista are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 25% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
GIL Vicente see a goal before the break in 38% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Boavista 62%, GIL Vicente 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 12% for Boavista and 50% for GIL Vicente.
On the defensive side: Boavista keep a clean sheet in 38% of their matches; GIL Vicente in 38%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Boavista home games / GIL Vicente away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Boavista play GIL Vicente?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 62% of Boavista's games and 50% of GIL Vicente's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Boavista vs GIL Vicente usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 12% of Boavista's recent games and 50% of GIL Vicente's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Boavista and GIL Vicente tend to score early?
Boavista have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, GIL Vicente in 38% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Boavista and GIL Vicente share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Estádio do Bessa Século XXI, Regular Season - 18, as Boavista and GIL Vicente drew 1-1 in the Primeira Liga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Boavista 0.91 xG and GIL Vicente 1.50 xG, a combined 2.41. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Boavista attack 0.81 / defence 1.11 against GIL Vicente attack 0.96 / defence 0.98, drawn from 17/17 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Boavista 23% | Draw 26% | GIL Vicente 51%, with GIL Vicente to win its most likely call at 51%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 43%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 70% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Boavista 41%, GIL Vicente 59%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Boavista's trading profile (17 games, 8 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 65% of their matches — today it did.
GIL Vicente's trading profile (17 games, 8 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, GIL Vicente arrived the stronger side — 1.53 PPG against 1.00. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.