Benfica 1-2 SC Braga – Result & Analysis

Poisson rates Benfica at 56% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Benfica vs SC Braga encounter.

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Full Analysis

Estádio do Sport Lisboa e Benfica plays host to Benfica versus SC Braga in Primeira Liga (matchday 17). Kick-off: Saturday 4 January 2025 at 18:00 UK time.

Current Form

Benfica's record over their last 10 games: 8W 1D 1L (2.50 PPG). Last five: W D W W L. They are averaging 2.50 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. Defensively, conceding just 0.50 per game is an exceptional defensive record. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches.

At home, Benfica have gone 10W 0D 0L in their last 10 home games (3.00 PPG). They are averaging 3.40 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 6 clean sheets from their last 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at home. Their home PPG of 3.00 is noticeably stronger than their overall 2.50 — Benfica are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.

SC Braga have collected 1.70 PPG across their last 10 games: 5W 2D 3L. Last five: W D D W L. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.00 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.

On the road, SC Braga have gone 7W 1D 2L in their last 10 away fixtures (2.20 PPG). Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 6 away clean sheets from their last 10 away games (60%) — they are hard to break down on the road. Their away PPG of 2.20 exceeds their overall 1.70 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.

Form favours the hosts. Benfica's 2.50 PPG return is 0.80 points per game ahead of SC Braga's 1.70 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.

H2H Analysis

Neither side has dominated the 6 H2H matches in our data: 4 wins for Benfica, 2 for SC Braga and 0 draws — leaving the H2H largely neutral.

Goals have been a feature of this fixture — the 6 H2H matches in our data averaged 3.5 per game, which gives Over 2.5 a solid head-to-head foundation. The most recent of those, on 27 Apr 2024, ended Benfica 3–1 SC Braga — a Benfica win.

With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 3.5 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.

Trading & In-Play

Benfica — key trading statistics (last 50 games, 24 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 75% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 93% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 64% of those occasions; they lead at the break 52% of the time; of the 5 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 40%; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 71% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 36%; they keep a clean sheet 48% of the time.

SC Braga — key trading statistics (last 50 games, 24 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 67% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 69% of those occasions; of the 12 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 50%; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 42%.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Benfica 44% versus SC Braga 62%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Benfica 58% | SC Braga 66%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Benfica 1.69 xG and SC Braga 0.90 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Benfica attack 1.658 / defence 0.663 | SC Braga attack 1.183 / defence 0.729. League average goals — home 1.397 / away 1.146. Benfica carry an above-average attack rating of 1.658 — their 1.69 xG reflects attacking quality above the league norm. SC Braga bring a tight defence (rating 0.729, below 1 = concedes less than average) — this is pulling Benfica's projected output down. Benfica have a tight defence (rating 0.663), which is pulling SC Braga's projected output down. Data: built from Benfica's last 50 games and SC Braga's last 50.

Result probabilities: Benfica 56% | Draw 24% | SC Braga 20%. Fair-value odds: Benfica 1.79 | Draw 4.10 | SC Braga 5.06. The model has a clear lean to Benfica (56%) — a 32pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 48% | BTTS Yes probability 49% | Total xG 2.59. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 48%/52% — the total xG of 2.59 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS No at 51% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.

Picks & Verdict

On the Poisson output, Benfica are the pick at 56% — clear model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 24% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.

On the goals line, Poisson's 2.59 combined xG gives a 52% probability to Under 2.5 — low conviction — though recent form (Benfica's last 10 home games and SC Braga's last 10 away games) averaging 3.0 goals per game and the H2H data averaging 3.5 goals per game across 6 H2H matches point the other way.

The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 51%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Benfica 40% (last 10 home games) | SC Braga 40% (last 10 away games).

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