Benfica 1-2 GIL Vicente – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Benfica at 46%, yet other data sources diverge — this Benfica vs GIL Vicente fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Primeira Liga encounter, Regular Season - 20 sees GIL Vicente travel to Estádio do Sport Lisboa e Benfica to take on Benfica. The game is scheduled for Wednesday 2 February 2022, 19:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Primeira Liga games this season, Benfica have gone 6W 2D 2L from 10 outings — a 2.00 PPG return. Last five: W L W D W. They are averaging 3.20 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Benfica, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Benfica's form when playing at home: 6W 1D 2L across 9 games at Estádio do Sport Lisboa e Benfica this term (2.11 PPG). They are averaging 2.67 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. BTTS has landed in 67% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
GIL Vicente — All Games: 6W 3D 1L from 10 Primeira Liga fixtures this season — 2.10 PPG. Last five: L W W D W. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 1.00. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for GIL Vicente, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Primeira Liga this season, GIL Vicente have posted 4W 4D 1L from 9 away outings — 1.78 PPG. Away from home they average 1.44 goals scored and 0.89 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 56% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The form comparison is too close to call — 2.00 PPG (Benfica) versus 2.10 (GIL Vicente). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 1 previous encounters have yielded 1 wins for Benfica, 0 for GIL Vicente and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 21 Aug 2021, ended 2–0 with Benfica winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Data
Benfica trading profile (19 games, 9 at home): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; they lead at the break 63% of the time; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 47%.
GIL Vicente trading profile (19 games, 9 at away): they score before half-time in 44% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 62% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Benfica 58% versus GIL Vicente 47%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Benfica 58% | GIL Vicente 53%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Benfica 1.76 xG and GIL Vicente 1.36 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Benfica attack 1.593 / defence 1.068 | GIL Vicente attack 0.899 / defence 1.024. League average goals — home 1.076 / away 1.412. Benfica carry an above-average attack strength of 1.593 — their λ of 1.76 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 19 Benfica games / 19 GIL Vicente games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Benfica 46% | Draw 26% | GIL Vicente 29%. Fair-value odds: Benfica 2.17 | Draw 3.85 | GIL Vicente 3.45. Benfica hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 60% | BTTS probability 63% | Total xG 3.11. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 60% — the 3.11 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 63% reflects that both xG figures (1.76 / 1.36) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Benfica as the most likely outcome at 46% — moderate model lean. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Benfica offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.11 combined xG gives a 60% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 63% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Benfica 67% | GIL Vicente 56% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Benfica vs GIL Vicente | Competition: Primeira Liga, Regular Season - 20 | Venue: Estádio do Sport Lisboa e Benfica • Kick-off: Wednesday 2 Feb 2022, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Benfica 46% | Draw 26% | GIL Vicente 29% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 60% | BTTS 63% | xG Benfica 1.76 / GIL Vicente 1.36 • Poisson strength factors: Benfica attack 1.593 / def 1.068 | GIL Vicente attack 0.899 / def 1.024 | league avg home 1.076 / away 1.412 • Poisson stance: Benfica (46%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.76
Benfica xG
Expected Goals
1.36
GIL Vicente xG
63%
BTTS
83%
Over 1.5
60%
Over 2.5
38%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Benfica vs GIL Vicente kick off?
Benfica vs GIL Vicente kicked off at 19:00 on Wednesday 2 February 2022 at Estádio do Sport Lisboa e Benfica.
What was the final score in Benfica vs GIL Vicente?
Benfica 1 - 2 GIL Vicente.
Where is Benfica vs GIL Vicente being played?
The match is being played at Estádio do Sport Lisboa e Benfica.
What competition is Benfica vs GIL Vicente part of?
Benfica vs GIL Vicente is a Regular Season - 20 fixture in the Primeira Liga (Portugal).
Who is favourite to win Benfica vs GIL Vicente?
Our statistical model gives Benfica a 46% chance of winning, GIL Vicente a 29% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Benfica the favourite.
Will both teams score in Benfica vs GIL Vicente?
Our model estimates a 63% probability that both Benfica and GIL Vicente will score (BTTS).
Will Benfica vs GIL Vicente have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 60%.
What is the head-to-head record between Benfica and GIL Vicente?
Record (1 meetings): Benfica 1W | Draws 0 | GIL Vicente 0W.
What form are Benfica and GIL Vicente in?
Benfica (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 3.20 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-L-W-D-W. GIL Vicente (all comps): 6W-3D-1L in 10 | 2.10 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.00 | L5 L-W-W-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Benfica's attack rating (1.59) and GIL Vicente's defence rating (1.02), the model arrives at 1.76 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, GIL Vicente's attack versus Benfica's defence, projects 1.36 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 19/19 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.0%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.3%), 1-2 (7.2%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Benfica Win
46%
2.18
26%
3.92
29%
3.49
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.6%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.3%
Home win
1 – 0
7.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.76
Benfica xG
Total xG
3.11
1.36
GIL Vicente xG
2.18
46%
Home win
3.92
26%
Draw
3.49
29%
Away win
Goals Markets
82%
Over 1.5
1.22
18%
Under 1.5
5.56
60%
Over 2.5
1.67
40%
Under 2.5
2.50
38%
Over 3.5
2.63
62%
Under 3.5
1.61
20%
Over 4.5
5.00
80%
Under 4.5
1.25
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
63%
BTTS Yes
1.60
37%
BTTS No
2.67
Clean Sheet
26%
3.88
17%
5.79
Win to Nil
12%
8.47
5%
20.21
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.5 | 6.0 | 4.1 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 7.8 | 10.6 | 7.2 | 3.2 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.9 | 9.3 | 6.3 | 2.9 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 4.0 | 5.4 | 3.7 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.8 | 2.4 | 1.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.8 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Benfica vs GIL Vicente?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.0%.
How many goals are Benfica and GIL Vicente expected to score?
The model projects 1.76 expected goals for Benfica and 1.36 for GIL Vicente, a combined total of 3.11.
How confident is the prediction model for Benfica vs GIL Vicente?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 19 outings, Benfica have picked up 2.32 PPG on a 14W 2D 3L record — W-L-W-D-W across the most recent five. The sample for Benfica is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
GIL Vicente's form line: 8W 6D 5L from 19 games, 1.58 PPG, last five L-W-W-D-W. The sample for GIL Vicente is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Benfica are the form team by 0.74 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against GIL Vicente.
Venue Form
On home soil, Benfica have posted 2.11 PPG from 9 outings (6W 1D 2L).
On the road, GIL Vicente have gone 4W 4D 1L from 9 away games — 1.78 PPG when travelling.
Goals in Recent Form
Benfica are averaging 2.74 goals scored and 0.84 conceded per game recently; GIL Vicente are on 1.47 scored and 1.11 conceded.
Defensively: Benfica have kept a clean sheet in 37% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 19 Results — Primeira Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Benfica
Blended
GIL Vicente
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Benfica and GIL Vicente in coming into this match?
Benfica have gone 14W 2D 3L in their last 19 games (2.32 PPG), while GIL Vicente have gone 8W 6D 5L in their last 19 (1.58 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Benfica at home or GIL Vicente away?
Benfica's home record (2.11 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Benfica at home: 2.11 PPG; GIL Vicente away: 1.78 PPG.
Have Benfica or GIL Vicente been keeping clean sheets recently?
Benfica have kept a clean sheet in 37% of their recent games, GIL Vicente in 32%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Primeira Liga. They last met on 2 March 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Benfica have won the last 8 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 28 Sep 2024, when Benfica won 5-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Benfica's record when hosting GIL Vicente specifically: 4W 0D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
9
Benfica
0
Draws
1
GIL Vicente
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Benfica and GIL Vicente?
From 10 meetings on record, Benfica have won 9, GIL Vicente have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Benfica and GIL Vicente last play each other?
They last met on 2 March 2026, when GIL Vicente 1-2 Benfica.
Who has won more matches between Benfica and GIL Vicente?
Benfica have the better head-to-head record, with 9 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Benfica are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 56% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
GIL Vicente see a goal before the break in 44% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 22% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Benfica 67%, GIL Vicente 56% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 56% (Benfica) and 44% (GIL Vicente).
On the defensive side: GIL Vicente in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Benfica home games / GIL Vicente away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Benfica play GIL Vicente?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 67% of Benfica's games and 56% of GIL Vicente's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Benfica vs GIL Vicente usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 56% of Benfica's recent games and 44% of GIL Vicente's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Benfica and GIL Vicente tend to score early?
Benfica have had a goal before half-time in 78% of their recent matches, GIL Vicente in 44% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as GIL Vicente defy the odds to beat Benfica 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
GIL Vicente beat Benfica 1-2 at Estádio do Sport Lisboa e Benfica, Regular Season - 20, in the Primeira Liga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Benfica 1.76 xG and GIL Vicente 1.36 xG, a combined 3.11. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Benfica attack 1.59 / defence 1.07 against GIL Vicente attack 0.90 / defence 1.02, drawn from 19/19 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Benfica 46% | Draw 26% | GIL Vicente 29%, with Benfica to win its most likely call at 46%. The actual GIL Vicente win had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 60%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 83% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 63% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Benfica 58%, GIL Vicente 53%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Benfica's trading profile (19 games, 9 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 37% of the time, and conceded here.
GIL Vicente's trading profile (19 games, 9 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Benfica arrived the stronger side — 2.32 PPG against 1.58. Form was overturned, with GIL Vicente winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Benfica (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.67 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 1.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.