Benfica 1-0 Famalicao – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Benfica (50%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Benfica face Famalicao.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Primeira Liga encounter, Regular Season - 15 sees Famalicao travel to Estádio da Luz to take on Benfica. The game is scheduled for Monday 22 December 2025, 20:45 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Primeira Liga games this season, Benfica have gone 6W 4D 0L from 10 outings — a 2.20 PPG return. Last five: W D W D W. They are averaging 2.30 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. Defensively, conceding just 0.60 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. This season is still relatively young for Benfica, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Benfica at Estádio da Luz this season: 4W 6D 0L from 10 home games — 1.80 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 2.40 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Famalicao — All Games: 3W 4D 3L from 10 Primeira Liga fixtures this season — 1.30 PPG. Last five: W L D L W. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 0.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for Famalicao, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Primeira Liga this season, Famalicao have posted 4W 3D 3L from 10 away outings — 1.50 PPG. Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Benfica are in the better shape of the two on current Primeira Liga data — 0.90 PPG ahead (2.20 vs 1.30). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
Both teams score in over 70% of each side's relevant games (using home/away splits). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.
H2H Record
Benfica hold a clear advantage in this fixture, picking up 5 wins from 8 previous encounters compared to 2 for Famalicao, with 1 draws in between.
The 8 previous meetings have averaged 2.4 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 17 Jan 2025, ended 4–0 with Benfica winning.
The historical record gives Benfica a meaningful edge here — 5 wins from 8 meetings is the kind of ledger that should not be discounted when the form picture is inconclusive. Even away from home, the visitors have struggled to impose themselves in this fixture.
In-Play Data
Benfica trading profile (48 games, 23 at home): they score before half-time in 87% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 91% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 73% of those occasions; they lead at the break 58% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 74% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 46% of the time.
Famalicao trading profile (48 games, 23 at away): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 56% of the time; BTTS occurs in 65% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Benfica 50% versus Famalicao 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Benfica 67% | Famalicao 48%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Benfica 1.55 xG and Famalicao 1.00 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Benfica attack 1.301 / defence 0.871 | Famalicao attack 0.917 / defence 0.886. League average goals — home 1.346 / away 1.257. Benfica carry an above-average attack strength of 1.301 — their λ of 1.55 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 48 Benfica games / 48 Famalicao games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Benfica 50% | Draw 25% | Famalicao 24%. Fair-value odds: Benfica 2.00 | Draw 4.00 | Famalicao 4.17. Benfica hold a narrow Poisson edge at 50% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 47% | BTTS probability 50% | Total xG 2.56. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 47%/53% — the total xG of 2.56 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 50% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Benfica as the most likely outcome at 50% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Benfica offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.56 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 47% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 50%. This conflicts with form data: Benfica 70% | Famalicao 70% from recent games — a notable divergence.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Benfica vs Famalicao | Competition: Primeira Liga, Regular Season - 15 | Venue: Estádio da Luz • Kick-off: Monday 22 Dec 2025, 20:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Benfica 50% | Draw 25% | Famalicao 24% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 47% | BTTS 50% | xG Benfica 1.55 / Famalicao 1.00 • Poisson strength factors: Benfica attack 1.301 / def 0.871 | Famalicao attack 0.917 / def 0.886 | league avg home 1.346 / away 1.257 • Poisson stance: Benfica (50%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.55
Benfica xG
Expected Goals
1.00
Famalicao xG
50%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
47%
Over 2.5
25%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Benfica vs Famalicao kick off?
Benfica vs Famalicao kicked off at 20:45 on Monday 22 December 2025 at Estádio da Luz.
What was the final score in Benfica vs Famalicao?
Benfica 1 - 0 Famalicao.
Where is Benfica vs Famalicao being played?
The match is being played at Estádio da Luz.
What competition is Benfica vs Famalicao part of?
Benfica vs Famalicao is a Regular Season - 15 fixture in the Primeira Liga (Portugal).
Who is favourite to win Benfica vs Famalicao?
Our statistical model gives Benfica a 50% chance of winning, Famalicao a 24% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Benfica the favourite.
Will both teams score in Benfica vs Famalicao?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both Benfica and Famalicao will score (BTTS).
Will Benfica vs Famalicao have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 47%.
What is the head-to-head record between Benfica and Famalicao?
Record (8 meetings): Benfica 5W | Draws 1 | Famalicao 2W.
What form are Benfica and Famalicao in?
Benfica (all comps): 6W-4D-0L in 10 | 2.20 PPG | GF 2.30 / GA 0.60 | L5 W-D-W-D-W. Famalicao (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-L-D-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Benfica's attack at 1.30x the league average against Famalicao's defence at 0.89x — combine the two and it projects 1.55 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Famalicao's attack versus Benfica's defence, projects 1.00 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 48/48 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.7% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (10.5%), 2-1 (9.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Benfica Win
50%
2.00
25%
3.93
24%
4.09
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
12.1%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.1%
Draw
2 – 0
9.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.55
Benfica xG
Total xG
2.56
1.00
Famalicao xG
2.00
50%
Home win
3.93
25%
Draw
4.09
24%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
47%
Over 2.5
2.13
53%
Under 2.5
1.89
25%
Over 3.5
4.00
75%
Under 3.5
1.33
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
2.00
50%
BTTS No
2.00
Clean Sheet
37%
2.73
21%
4.73
Win to Nil
18%
5.45
5%
19.31
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.8 | 7.8 | 3.9 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.1 | 12.1 | 6.1 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.4 | 9.4 | 4.7 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.8 | 4.9 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.9 | 1.9 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Benfica vs Famalicao?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.7%.
How many goals are Benfica and Famalicao expected to score?
The model projects 1.55 expected goals for Benfica and 1.00 for Famalicao, a combined total of 2.56.
How confident is the prediction model for Benfica vs Famalicao?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 50%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Benfica come into this having played 48 games, going 34W 10D 4L for 2.33 points per game. Their last five reads W-D-W-D-W. The sample for Benfica is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Famalicao sit at 1.46 PPG from 48 outings (18W 16D 14L), a run that reads W-L-D-L-W across their last five. The sample for Famalicao is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Benfica carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.87 PPG clear of Famalicao — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
Benfica's home form reads 16W 6D 1L across 23 games on their own ground, a 2.35 PPG return.
Away from home, Famalicao have taken 1.35 points per game from 23 outings (8W 7D 8L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Benfica come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Benfica are averaging 2.38 goals scored and 0.75 conceded per game recently; Famalicao are on 1.29 scored and 1.00 conceded. Benfica's scoring rate against Famalicao's tighter defensive record is one of the more interesting match-ups in the goals markets here.
Defensively: Benfica have kept a clean sheet in 46% of their games; Famalicao in 44% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 48 Results — Primeira Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Benfica
Blended
Famalicao
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Benfica and Famalicao in coming into this match?
Benfica have gone 34W 10D 4L in their last 48 games (2.33 PPG), while Famalicao have gone 18W 16D 14L in their last 48 (1.46 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Benfica at home or Famalicao away?
Benfica's home record (2.35 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Benfica at home: 2.35 PPG; Famalicao away: 1.35 PPG.
Have Benfica or Famalicao been keeping clean sheets recently?
Benfica have kept a clean sheet in 46% of their recent games, Famalicao in 44%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to December 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Primeira Liga. They last met on 2 May 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 17 Jan 2025, when Benfica won 4-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Benfica's record when hosting Famalicao specifically: 4W 1D 0L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
6
Benfica
2
Draws
2
Famalicao
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Benfica and Famalicao?
From 10 meetings on record, Benfica have won 6, Famalicao have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Benfica and Famalicao last play each other?
They last met on 2 May 2026, when Famalicao 2-2 Benfica.
Who has won more matches between Benfica and Famalicao?
Benfica have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Benfica are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 87% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 70% of the time.
Famalicao are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Benfica 56%, Famalicao 65% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 74% for Benfica and 56% for Famalicao. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 48% and 22% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Benfica keep a clean sheet in 44% of their matches; Famalicao in 30%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Benfica home games / Famalicao away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Benfica play Famalicao?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 56% of Benfica's games and 65% of Famalicao's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Benfica vs Famalicao usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 74% of Benfica's matches and 56% of Famalicao's.
Do Benfica and Famalicao tend to score early?
Benfica have had a goal before half-time in 87% of their recent matches, Famalicao in 74% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Benfica edge out Famalicao 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Benfica beat Famalicao 1-0 at Estádio da Luz, Regular Season - 15, in the Primeira Liga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Benfica 1.55 xG and Famalicao 1.00 xG, a combined 2.56. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Famalicao landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Benfica attack 1.30 / defence 0.87 against Famalicao attack 0.92 / defence 0.89, drawn from 48/48 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Benfica 50% | Draw 25% | Famalicao 24%, with Benfica to win its most likely call at 50%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 47%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 72% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 57% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Benfica 67%, Famalicao 48%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Benfica's trading profile (48 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 46% of the time, and duly kept one.
Famalicao's trading profile (48 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Benfica arrived the stronger side — 2.33 PPG against 1.46. Form held, and they took the win. Benfica (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.78 scoring average — below par going forward. Famalicao (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.35 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.