Benfica 2-1 Estoril – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Benfica at 56% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Benfica vs Estoril encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Primeira Liga clash, Regular Season - 27 as Benfica welcome Estoril to Estádio do Sport Lisboa e Benfica. Kick-off is set for Sunday 20 March 2022 at 18:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Benfica stand at 6W 3D 1L from 10 Primeira Liga matches — 2.10 PPG. Last five: W D W W D. Offensively they are averaging 1.90 goals per game, with 0.90 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Benfica, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Benfica at Estádio do Sport Lisboa e Benfica this season: 5W 2D 3L from 10 home games — 1.70 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 2.40 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Across all Primeira Liga games this season, Estoril have recorded 2W 3D 5L from 10 outings — 0.90 PPG. Last five: W L L D W. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. This season is still relatively young for Estoril, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Estoril away from home this season: 2W 4D 4L from 10 away games — 1.00 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.60 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
Benfica are in the better shape of the two on current Primeira Liga data — 1.20 PPG ahead (2.10 vs 0.90). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 1 previous encounters have yielded 0 wins for Benfica, 0 for Estoril and 1 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 30 Oct 2021, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Data
Benfica trading profile (26 games, 13 at home): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; they lead at the break 58% of the time; BTTS occurs in 69% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 42%.
Estoril trading profile (26 games, 13 at away): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 31% of games (away games); they fail to score in 31% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Benfica 65% versus Estoril 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Benfica 65% | Estoril 42%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Benfica 1.66 xG and Estoril 0.77 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Benfica attack 1.420 / defence 1.038 | Estoril attack 0.577 / defence 1.163. League average goals — home 1.005 / away 1.277. Benfica carry an above-average attack strength of 1.420 — their λ of 1.66 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 26 Benfica games / 26 Estoril games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Benfica 56% | Draw 30% | Estoril 14%. Fair-value odds: Benfica 1.79 | Draw 3.33 | Estoril 7.14. The model has a clear lean to Benfica (56%) — a 42pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 44% | BTTS probability 46% | Total xG 2.42. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 56% — total xG of 2.42 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 46% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Benfica as the most likely outcome at 56% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 30% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.42 combined xG gives a 44% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 46% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Benfica 70% | Estoril 30%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Benfica vs Estoril | Competition: Primeira Liga, Regular Season - 27 | Venue: Estádio do Sport Lisboa e Benfica • Kick-off: Sunday 20 Mar 2022, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Benfica 56% | Draw 30% | Estoril 14% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 44% | BTTS 46% | xG Benfica 1.66 / Estoril 0.77 • Poisson strength factors: Benfica attack 1.420 / def 1.038 | Estoril attack 0.577 / def 1.163 | league avg home 1.005 / away 1.277 • Poisson stance: Benfica (56%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.66
Benfica xG
Expected Goals
0.77
Estoril xG
46%
BTTS
73%
Over 1.5
44%
Over 2.5
23%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Benfica vs Estoril kick off?
Benfica vs Estoril kicked off at 18:00 on Sunday 20 March 2022 at Estádio do Sport Lisboa e Benfica.
What was the final score in Benfica vs Estoril?
Benfica 2 - 1 Estoril.
Where is Benfica vs Estoril being played?
The match is being played at Estádio do Sport Lisboa e Benfica.
What competition is Benfica vs Estoril part of?
Benfica vs Estoril is a Regular Season - 27 fixture in the Primeira Liga (Portugal).
Who is favourite to win Benfica vs Estoril?
Our statistical model gives Benfica a 56% chance of winning, Estoril a 14% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Benfica the favourite.
Will both teams score in Benfica vs Estoril?
Our model estimates a 46% probability that both Benfica and Estoril will score (BTTS).
Will Benfica vs Estoril have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 44%.
What is the head-to-head record between Benfica and Estoril?
Record (1 meetings): Benfica 0W | Draws 1 | Estoril 0W.
What form are Benfica and Estoril in?
Benfica (all comps): 6W-3D-1L in 10 | 2.10 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-D-W-W-D. Estoril (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-L-L-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Benfica's attack at 1.42x the league average against Estoril's defence at 1.16x — combine the two and it projects 1.66 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Estoril's attack versus Benfica's defence, projects 0.77 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 26/26 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-0 carries the highest individual probability at 13.2% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-1 (12.7%), 2-0 (12.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 38% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Benfica Win
56%
1.79
30%
3.32
14%
7.12
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.7%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
12.2%
Home win
1 – 1
11.2%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.66
Benfica xG
Total xG
2.42
0.77
Estoril xG
1.79
56%
Home win
3.32
30%
Draw
7.12
14%
Away win
Goals Markets
70%
Over 1.5
1.43
30%
Under 1.5
3.33
44%
Over 2.5
2.27
56%
Under 2.5
1.79
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
46%
BTTS Yes
2.16
54%
BTTS No
1.86
Clean Sheet
47%
2.15
19%
5.26
Win to Nil
26%
3.85
3%
37.43
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.8 | 6.8 | 2.6 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 14.7 | 11.2 | 4.3 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 12.2 | 9.3 | 3.6 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 6.7 | 5.2 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 2.8 | 2.1 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.9 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Benfica vs Estoril?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.2%.
How many goals are Benfica and Estoril expected to score?
The model projects 1.66 expected goals for Benfica and 0.77 for Estoril, a combined total of 2.42.
How confident is the prediction model for Benfica vs Estoril?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 56%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Benfica come into this having played 26 games, going 18W 4D 4L for 2.23 points per game. Their last five reads W-D-W-W-D. The sample for Benfica is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Estoril sit at 1.31 PPG from 26 outings (8W 10D 8L), a run that reads W-L-L-D-W across their last five. The sample for Estoril is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Benfica carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.92 PPG clear of Estoril — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
Benfica's home form reads 8W 2D 3L across 13 games on their own ground, a 2.00 PPG return.
Away from home, Estoril have taken 1.46 points per game from 13 outings (5W 4D 4L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Benfica come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Benfica are averaging 2.54 goals scored and 0.92 conceded per game recently; Estoril are on 1.15 scored and 1.15 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Benfica have seen both teams score in 65% of their recent games.
Last 26 Results — Primeira Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Benfica
Blended
Estoril
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Benfica and Estoril in coming into this match?
Benfica have gone 18W 4D 4L in their last 26 games (2.23 PPG), while Estoril have gone 8W 10D 8L in their last 26 (1.31 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Benfica at home or Estoril away?
Benfica's home record (2.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Benfica at home: 2.00 PPG; Estoril away: 1.46 PPG.
Have Benfica or Estoril been keeping clean sheets recently?
Benfica have kept a clean sheet in 31% of their recent games, Estoril in 35%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Primeira Liga. The two were last together as recently as 16 May 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
There's a clear current trend here: Benfica have taken the last 9 head-to-head results.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 6 Nov 2022, when Benfica won 1-5 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Benfica's record when hosting Estoril specifically: 5W 0D 0L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
9
Benfica
1
Draws
0
Estoril
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Benfica and Estoril?
From 10 meetings on record, Benfica have won 9, Estoril have won 0, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Benfica and Estoril last play each other?
They last met on 16 May 2026, when Estoril 1-3 Benfica.
Who has won more matches between Benfica and Estoril?
Benfica have the better head-to-head record, with 9 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Benfica are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 46% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 15% of those situations.
Estoril are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 31% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Benfica 69%, Estoril 38% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 62% (Benfica) and 31% (Estoril).
On the defensive side: Estoril in 38%; Estoril in 38%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Benfica home games / Estoril away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Benfica play Estoril?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 69% of Benfica's recent matches and 38% of Estoril's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Benfica vs Estoril usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 62% of Benfica's recent games and 31% of Estoril's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Benfica and Estoril tend to score early?
Benfica have had a goal before half-time in 77% of their recent matches, Estoril in 69% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Benfica edge out Estoril 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Benfica beat Estoril 2-1 at Estádio do Sport Lisboa e Benfica, Regular Season - 27, in the Primeira Liga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Benfica 1.66 xG and Estoril 0.77 xG, a combined 2.42. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Benfica attack 1.42 / defence 1.04 against Estoril attack 0.58 / defence 1.16, drawn from 26/26 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Benfica 56% | Draw 30% | Estoril 14%, with Benfica to win its most likely call at 56%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 44%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 73% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Benfica 65%, Estoril 42%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Benfica's trading profile (26 games, 13 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 65% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.
Estoril's trading profile (26 games, 13 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Benfica arrived the stronger side — 2.23 PPG against 1.31. That form edge translated into the three points. Estoril (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.