Benfica 3-1 Estoril – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model favours Benfica (83%) — recent form and the head-to-head data both point the same way as Benfica face Estoril.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
Benfica welcome Estoril to Estádio do Sport Lisboa e Benfica in Primeira Liga (matchday 25). Kick-off is Sunday 10 March 2024 at 20:30 UK time.
Form Analysis
Looking at their last 10 matches, Benfica stand at 8W 1D 1L — 2.50 PPG. Last five: W D W W L. They are averaging 3.10 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches.
Benfica at home: 8W 2D 0L from their last 10 home games — 2.60 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 2.70 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 5 clean sheets from their last 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at home.
Across their last 10 games, Estoril have recorded 2W 2D 6L — 0.80 PPG. Last five: W L L D L. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 2.20. Conceding 2.20 per game is a high rate — their defence has been exposed regularly. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — a high rate that makes Yes a well-evidenced angle from their form.
Estoril away from home: 1W 3D 6L from their last 10 away games — 0.60 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 2.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Benfica are in the better shape of the two on recent form — 1.70 PPG ahead (2.50 vs 0.80). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
H2H Record
Benfica hold a clear advantage across the 4 H2H matches in our data, with 4 wins compared to 0 for Estoril and 0 draws.
The 4 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.8 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 7 Oct 2023, ended Benfica 1–0 Estoril — a Benfica win.
The head-to-head data gives Benfica an edge — 4 wins from 4 H2H matches is worth weighing, particularly if the form picture is inconclusive.
In-Play Data
Benfica trading profile (last 58 games, 29 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 76% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; they lead at the break 55% of the time; of the 5 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 60%; BTTS occurs in 45% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 69% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 38%; they keep a clean sheet 57% of the time.
Estoril trading profile (last 58 games, 29 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 72% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 53% of those occasions; of the 14 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 29%; BTTS occurs in 55% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 45% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 36%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Benfica 38% versus Estoril 48%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Benfica 62% | Estoril 50%). Note also that Estoril surrender HT leads in 29% of cases while Benfica recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 60% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Benfica 3.22 xG and Estoril 0.86 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Benfica attack 1.613 / defence 0.657 | Estoril attack 1.059 / defence 1.310. League average goals — home 1.525 / away 1.238. Benfica carry an above-average attack rating of 1.613 — their 3.22 xG reflects attacking quality above the league norm. Estoril's defence rating of 1.310 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Benfica's projected output up. Benfica have a tight defence (rating 0.657), which is pulling Estoril's projected output down. Data: built from Benfica's last 58 games and Estoril's last 58.
Result probabilities: Benfica 83% | Draw 11% | Estoril 6%. Fair-value odds: Benfica 1.21 | Draw 8.98 | Estoril 15.75. The model has a clear lean to Benfica (83%) — a 72pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 77% | BTTS Yes probability 56% | Total xG 4.08. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 77% — a total xG of 4.08 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 56% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Benfica as the most likely outcome at 83% — clear model lean. Recent form and the head-to-head data both align with the Poisson read — multi-source corroboration increases confidence in this selection.
On the goals line, Poisson's 4.08 combined xG gives a 77% probability to Over 2.5 — strong conviction, supported by recent form (Benfica's last 10 home games and Estoril's last 10 away games) averaging 3.5 goals per game and the H2H data averaging 2.8 goals per game across 4 H2H matches.
Poisson assigns a 56% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Benfica 50% (last 10 home games) | Estoril 80% (last 10 away games).
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Benfica vs Estoril | Competition: Primeira Liga, matchday 25 | Venue: Estádio do Sport Lisboa e Benfica • Kick-off: Sunday 10 March 2024 at 20:30 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Benfica 83% | Draw 11% | Estoril 6% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 77% (Under 23%) | BTTS Yes 56% (No 44%) | xG Benfica 3.22 / Estoril 0.86 • Poisson strength factors: Benfica attack 1.613 / def 0.657 | Estoril attack 1.059 / def 1.310 | league avg home 1.525 / away 1.238 • Poisson stance: Benfica (83%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
3.22
Benfica xG
Expected Goals
0.86
Estoril xG
56%
BTTS
92%
Over 1.5
77%
Over 2.5
58%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Benfica vs Estoril FAQs
What time does Benfica vs Estoril kick off?
Benfica vs Estoril kicked off at 20:30 UK time on Sunday 10 March 2024 at Estádio do Sport Lisboa e Benfica.
What was the final score in Benfica vs Estoril?
Benfica 3 - 1 Estoril.
Where is Benfica vs Estoril being played?
The match is being played at Estádio do Sport Lisboa e Benfica.
What competition is Benfica vs Estoril part of?
Benfica vs Estoril is a Primeira Liga fixture (matchday 25) (Portugal).
Who is favourite to win Benfica vs Estoril?
Our statistical model gives Benfica a 83% chance of winning, Estoril a 6% chance, and a 11% chance of a draw — making Benfica the favourite.
Will both teams score in Benfica vs Estoril?
Our model estimates a 56% probability that both Benfica and Estoril will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Benfica vs Estoril have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 77%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Benfica's attack at 1.61x the league average against Estoril's defence at 1.31x — combine the two and it projects 3.22 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Estoril's attack versus Benfica's defence, projects 0.86 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Benfica's last 58 games and Estoril's last 58 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 3-0 carries the highest individual probability at 9.4% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-0 (8.8%), 3-1 (8.1%). Together the top three scorelines make up 26% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Benfica Win
83%
1.21
11%
8.98
6%
15.75
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
3 – 0
9.4%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
8.7%
Home win
3 – 1
8.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
3.22
Benfica xG
Total xG
4.08
0.86
Estoril xG
1.21
83%
Home win
8.98
11%
Draw
15.75
6%
Away win
Goals Markets
91%
Over 1.5
1.10
9%
Under 1.5
11.11
77%
Over 2.5
1.30
23%
Under 2.5
4.35
58%
Over 3.5
1.72
42%
Under 3.5
2.38
39%
Over 4.5
2.56
61%
Under 4.5
1.64
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
56%
BTTS Yes
1.80
44%
BTTS No
2.25
Clean Sheet
42%
2.37
4%
25.08
Win to Nil
35%
2.87
0%
–
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1.7 | 1.5 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 1 | 5.4 | 4.7 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 2 | 8.7 | 7.5 | 3.2 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 9.4 | 8.1 | 3.5 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 7.6 | 6.5 | 2.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 4.9 | 4.2 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Benfica vs Estoril Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Benfica vs Estoril?
Our Poisson model rates 3-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.4%.
How many goals are Benfica and Estoril expected to score?
The model projects 3.22 expected goals for Benfica and 0.86 for Estoril, a combined total of 4.08.
How confident is the prediction model for Benfica vs Estoril?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 83%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Benfica come into this having played 58 games, going 46W 7D 5L for 2.50 points per game. Their last five reads W-D-W-W-L.
On the other side, Estoril sit at 0.98 PPG from 58 outings (16W 9D 33L), a run that reads W-L-L-D-L across their last five.
Benfica carry the stronger recent form of the two, 1.52 PPG clear of Estoril — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
Benfica's home form reads 25W 3D 1L across their last 29 home games, a 2.69 PPG return.
Away from home, Estoril have taken 0.62 points per game from their last 29 away games (4W 6D 19L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Benfica come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Benfica are averaging 2.38 goals scored and 0.69 conceded per game recently; Estoril are on 1.26 scored and 1.64 conceded.
Defensively: Benfica have kept a clean sheet in 57% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 58 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Benfica
Blended
Estoril
Blended
Benfica (Home) vs Estoril (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Benfica
Blended
Estoril
Blended
❓ Benfica vs Estoril Form FAQs
What form are Benfica and Estoril in coming into this match?
Benfica have gone 46W 7D 5L in their last 58 games (2.50 PPG), while Estoril have gone 16W 9D 33L in their last 58 (0.98 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Benfica at home or Estoril away?
Benfica's home record (2.69 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Benfica at home: 2.69 PPG; Estoril away: 0.62 PPG.
Have Benfica or Estoril been keeping clean sheets recently?
Benfica have kept a clean sheet in 57% of their recent games, Estoril in 24%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 10 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 4 years from March 2022. All of them came in Primeira Liga. The most recent was as recently as 31 August 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Streaks & Records
There's a clear recent trend here: Benfica have taken the most recent 10 H2H results in our data.
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 6 Nov 2022, when Benfica won Estoril 1-5 Benfica.
Benfica's record when hosting Estoril specifically: 6W 0D 0L from 6 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
10
Benfica
0
Draws
0
Estoril
Recent Meetings
❓ Benfica vs Estoril H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Benfica and Estoril?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Benfica have won 10, Estoril have won 0, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Benfica and Estoril last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 31 August 2026: Benfica 2-1 Estoril.
Who has won more matches between Benfica and Estoril?
Benfica have the better head-to-head record, with 10 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Benfica are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 59% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 100% of those situations.
Estoril are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 72% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Benfica 45%, Estoril 55% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 69% (Benfica) and 45% (Estoril). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 45% and 34% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Benfica keep a clean sheet in 55% of their matches; Estoril in 31%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Benfica home games / Estoril away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Benfica vs Estoril Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Benfica and Estoril matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 45% of Benfica's recent matches and 55% of Estoril's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Benfica and Estoril matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 69% of Benfica's matches and 45% of Estoril's.
Do Benfica and Estoril matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 76% of Benfica's recent matches and 72% of Estoril's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Benfica cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Estoril.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Benfica beat Estoril 3-1 at Estádio do Sport Lisboa e Benfica, Regular Season - 25, in the Primeira Liga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Benfica 3.22 xG and Estoril 0.86 xG, a combined 4.08. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Benfica attack 1.61 / defence 0.66 against Estoril attack 1.06 / defence 1.31, drawn from 58/58 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Benfica 83% | Draw 11% | Estoril 6%, with Benfica to win its most likely call at 83%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 77%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 92% and landed. Over 3.5 was 58% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Benfica 62%, Estoril 50%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 43%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Benfica's trading profile (58 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 38% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 57% of the time, and conceded here.
Estoril's trading profile (58 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Benfica arrived the stronger side — 2.50 PPG against 0.98. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Estoril (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.90 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
Related fixtures
More Primeira Liga fixtures — matchday 25
All Primeira Liga fixtures →
More Portuguese football predictions →