Benfica 3-0 Casa Pia – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Benfica at 64% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Benfica vs Casa Pia encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Primeira Liga encounter, Regular Season - 19 sees Casa Pia travel to Estádio do Sport Lisboa e Benfica to take on Benfica. The game is scheduled for Saturday 4 February 2023, 18:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Benfica — All Games: 8W 1D 1L from 10 Primeira Liga outings this season, averaging 2.50 points per game. Last five: W D W W W. They are averaging 2.50 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. Defensively, conceding just 0.70 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for Benfica, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Benfica have posted 8W 1D 1L at Estádio do Sport Lisboa e Benfica — 2.50 PPG. They are averaging 2.90 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Across all Primeira Liga games this season, Casa Pia have recorded 4W 1D 5L from 10 outings — 1.30 PPG. Last five: W D L L W. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Casa Pia, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Casa Pia away from home this season: 5W 1D 2L from 8 away games — 2.00 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.25 goals scored and 1.12 conceded per game. 3 clean sheets from 8 away games (38%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Their away PPG of 2.00 exceeds their overall 1.30 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
Benfica are in the better shape of the two on current Primeira Liga data — 1.20 PPG ahead (2.50 vs 1.30). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 1 wins apiece for Benfica, 0 for Casa Pia and 0 shared spoils from 1 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The last 1 meetings have been tight affairs, averaging just 1.0 goals per game. That low-scoring pattern is a meaningful historical input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent clash, on 13 Aug 2022, ended 1–0 with Benfica winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Profile
Benfica in-play tendencies (18 games, 8 at home): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; they lead at the break 61% of the time; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 88% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 39%; they keep a clean sheet 61% of the time.
Casa Pia in-play tendencies (18 games, 8 at away): they score before half-time in 88% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time; they fail to score in 33% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Benfica 33% versus Casa Pia 39%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Benfica 67% | Casa Pia 39%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Benfica 2.11 xG and Casa Pia 0.96 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Benfica attack 1.397 / defence 0.979 | Casa Pia attack 0.950 / defence 1.062. League average goals — home 1.421 / away 1.031. Benfica carry an above-average attack strength of 1.397 — their λ of 2.11 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 53 Benfica games / 18 Casa Pia games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Benfica 64% | Draw 20% | Casa Pia 16%. Fair-value odds: Benfica 1.56 | Draw 5.00 | Casa Pia 6.25. The model has a clear lean to Benfica (64%) — a 48pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 59% | BTTS probability 54% | Total xG 3.07. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 59% — the 3.07 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 54% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Benfica as the most likely outcome at 64% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 20% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 3.07 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 59% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.1 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 54% on Yes. Form rates are neutral: Benfica 50% | Casa Pia 50%.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Benfica vs Casa Pia | Competition: Primeira Liga, Regular Season - 19 | Venue: Estádio do Sport Lisboa e Benfica • Kick-off: Saturday 4 Feb 2023, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Benfica 64% | Draw 20% | Casa Pia 16% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 59% | BTTS 54% | xG Benfica 2.11 / Casa Pia 0.96 • Poisson strength factors: Benfica attack 1.397 / def 0.979 | Casa Pia attack 0.950 / def 1.062 | league avg home 1.421 / away 1.031 • Poisson stance: Benfica (64%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.11
Benfica xG
Expected Goals
0.96
Casa Pia xG
54%
BTTS
81%
Over 1.5
59%
Over 2.5
37%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Benfica vs Casa Pia kick off?
Benfica vs Casa Pia kicked off at 18:00 on Saturday 4 February 2023 at Estádio do Sport Lisboa e Benfica.
What was the final score in Benfica vs Casa Pia?
Benfica 3 - 0 Casa Pia.
Where is Benfica vs Casa Pia being played?
The match is being played at Estádio do Sport Lisboa e Benfica.
What competition is Benfica vs Casa Pia part of?
Benfica vs Casa Pia is a Regular Season - 19 fixture in the Primeira Liga (Portugal).
Who is favourite to win Benfica vs Casa Pia?
Our statistical model gives Benfica a 64% chance of winning, Casa Pia a 16% chance, and a 20% chance of a draw — making Benfica the favourite.
Will both teams score in Benfica vs Casa Pia?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both Benfica and Casa Pia will score (BTTS).
Will Benfica vs Casa Pia have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 59%.
What is the head-to-head record between Benfica and Casa Pia?
Record (1 meetings): Benfica 1W | Draws 0 | Casa Pia 0W.
What form are Benfica and Casa Pia in?
Benfica (all comps): 8W-1D-1L in 10 | 2.50 PPG | GF 2.50 / GA 0.70 | L5 W-D-W-W-W. Casa Pia (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-D-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Benfica's attacking strength (1.40x league average) is weighed against Casa Pia's defensive record (1.06x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 2.11. The same calculation in reverse, Casa Pia's attack versus Benfica's defence, projects 0.96 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 53/18 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 10.6%. Close behind: 2-0 (10.3%), 2-1 (9.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Benfica Win
64%
1.57
20%
4.99
16%
6.17
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 0
10.3%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 1
9.9%
Home win
1 – 0
9.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.11
Benfica xG
Total xG
3.07
0.96
Casa Pia xG
1.57
64%
Home win
4.99
20%
Draw
6.17
16%
Away win
Goals Markets
81%
Over 1.5
1.23
19%
Under 1.5
5.26
59%
Over 2.5
1.69
41%
Under 2.5
2.44
37%
Over 3.5
2.70
63%
Under 3.5
1.59
20%
Over 4.5
5.00
80%
Under 4.5
1.25
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.84
46%
BTTS No
2.18
Clean Sheet
38%
2.61
12%
8.23
Win to Nil
24%
4.10
2%
50.81
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.7 | 4.5 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 9.8 | 9.4 | 4.5 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.3 | 9.9 | 4.8 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 7.3 | 7.0 | 3.3 | 1.1 | 0.3 | – |
| 4 | 3.8 | 3.7 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.6 | 1.5 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Benfica vs Casa Pia?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.6%.
How many goals are Benfica and Casa Pia expected to score?
The model projects 2.11 expected goals for Benfica and 0.96 for Casa Pia, a combined total of 3.07.
How confident is the prediction model for Benfica vs Casa Pia?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 64%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Benfica come into this having played 18 games, going 15W 2D 1L for 2.61 points per game. Their last five reads W-D-W-W-W. The sample for Benfica is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Casa Pia sit at 1.67 PPG from 18 outings (9W 3D 6L), a run that reads W-D-L-L-W across their last five. The sample for Casa Pia is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Benfica carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.94 PPG clear of Casa Pia — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home Ground vs the Road
Benfica's home form reads 7W 1D 0L across 8 games on their own ground, a 2.75 PPG return.
Away from home, Casa Pia have taken 2.00 points per game from 8 outings (5W 1D 2L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Benfica come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Benfica are averaging 2.44 goals scored and 0.67 conceded per game recently; Casa Pia are on 1.00 scored and 0.94 conceded. Benfica's scoring rate against Casa Pia's tighter defensive record is one of the more interesting match-ups in the goals markets here.
Defensively: Benfica have kept a clean sheet in 61% of their games; Casa Pia in 44% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 18 Results — Primeira Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Benfica
Blended
Casa Pia
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Benfica and Casa Pia in coming into this match?
Benfica have gone 15W 2D 1L in their last 18 games (2.61 PPG), while Casa Pia have gone 9W 3D 6L in their last 18 (1.67 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Benfica at home or Casa Pia away?
Benfica's home record (2.75 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Benfica at home: 2.75 PPG; Casa Pia away: 2.00 PPG.
Have Benfica or Casa Pia been keeping clean sheets recently?
Benfica have kept a clean sheet in 61% of their recent games, Casa Pia in 44%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Benfica and Casa Pia runs to 8 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to August 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Primeira Liga. They last met on 6 April 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The last 2 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 4 Feb 2023, when Benfica won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Benfica's record when hosting Casa Pia specifically: 2W 2D 0L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
4
Benfica
3
Draws
1
Casa Pia
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Benfica and Casa Pia?
From 8 meetings on record, Benfica have won 4, Casa Pia have won 1, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Benfica and Casa Pia last play each other?
They last met on 6 April 2026, when Casa Pia 1-1 Benfica.
Who has won more matches between Benfica and Casa Pia?
Benfica have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Benfica are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 75% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Casa Pia are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 88% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Benfica 62%, Casa Pia 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 88% for Benfica and 50% for Casa Pia. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 75% and 25% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Benfica keep a clean sheet in 38% of their matches; Casa Pia in 38%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Benfica home games / Casa Pia away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Benfica play Casa Pia?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 62% of Benfica's games and 50% of Casa Pia's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Benfica vs Casa Pia usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 88% of Benfica's matches and 50% of Casa Pia's.
Do Benfica and Casa Pia tend to score early?
Benfica have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, Casa Pia in 88% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Benfica run riot with a 3-0 hammering of Casa Pia.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Benfica beat Casa Pia 3-0 at Estádio do Sport Lisboa e Benfica, Regular Season - 19, in the Primeira Liga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Benfica 2.11 xG and Casa Pia 0.96 xG, a combined 3.07. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. Benfica beat their projection by 0.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Casa Pia landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Benfica attack 1.40 / defence 0.98 against Casa Pia attack 0.95 / defence 1.06, drawn from 53/18 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Benfica 64% | Draw 20% | Casa Pia 16%, with Benfica to win its most likely call at 64%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 59%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 81% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Benfica 67%, Casa Pia 39%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 36%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Benfica's trading profile (18 games, 8 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 33% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 61% of the time, and duly kept one.
Casa Pia's trading profile (18 games, 8 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 39% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 33% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Benfica arrived the stronger side — 2.61 PPG against 1.67. That form edge translated into the three points. Benfica (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.00 average — tighter than their form line. Casa Pia (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.25 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.12 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.