Benfica 3-1 Boavista – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Benfica (72%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Benfica face Boavista.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Primeira Liga clash, Regular Season - 21 as Benfica welcome Boavista to Estádio do Sport Lisboa e Benfica. Kick-off is set for Monday 20 February 2023 at 21:15 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Primeira Liga games this season, Benfica have gone 8W 1D 1L from 10 outings — a 2.50 PPG return. Last five: D W W W W. They are averaging 2.70 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. Defensively, conceding just 0.70 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for Benfica, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Benfica's form when playing at home: 9W 1D 0L across 10 games at Estádio do Sport Lisboa e Benfica this term (2.80 PPG). They are averaging 3.20 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Estádio do Sport Lisboa e Benfica.
Boavista — All Games: 2W 4D 4L from 10 Primeira Liga fixtures this season — 1.00 PPG. Last five: D W D L D. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Boavista, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Boavista away from home this season: 2W 2D 6L from 10 away games — 0.80 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game.
On current form, Benfica have the edge — a 1.50 PPG advantage (2.50 vs 1.00) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 2 wins apiece for Benfica, 0 for Boavista and 1 shared spoils from 3 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 3 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.7 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 27 Aug 2022, ended 3–0 with Benfica winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.7 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
Benfica in-play and half-time data (54 games, 26 at home): they score before half-time in 81% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; they lead at the break 59% of the time; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 73% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 39%; they keep a clean sheet 46% of the time.
Boavista in-play and half-time data (54 games, 26 at away): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 65% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Benfica 48% versus Boavista 63%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Benfica 63% | Boavista 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Benfica 2.46 xG and Boavista 0.86 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Benfica attack 1.495 / defence 0.910 | Boavista attack 0.945 / defence 1.216. League average goals — home 1.352 / away 1.003. Benfica carry an above-average attack strength of 1.495 — their λ of 2.46 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Boavista bring a strong defensive rating of 1.216 — this is suppressing Benfica's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 54 Benfica games / 54 Boavista games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Benfica 72% | Draw 16% | Boavista 11%. Fair-value odds: Benfica 1.39 | Draw 6.25 | Boavista 9.09. The model has a clear lean to Benfica (72%) — a 61pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 64% | BTTS probability 53% | Total xG 3.32. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 64% — the 3.32 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 53% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Benfica as the most likely outcome at 72% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support.
The Poisson model projects 3.32 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 64% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 3.4 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.7 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 53% on Yes. Form rates are neutral: Benfica 50% | Boavista 50%.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Benfica vs Boavista | Competition: Primeira Liga, Regular Season - 21 | Venue: Estádio do Sport Lisboa e Benfica • Kick-off: Monday 20 Feb 2023, 21:15 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Benfica 72% | Draw 16% | Boavista 11% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 64% | BTTS 53% | xG Benfica 2.46 / Boavista 0.86 • Poisson strength factors: Benfica attack 1.495 / def 0.910 | Boavista attack 0.945 / def 1.216 | league avg home 1.352 / away 1.003 • Poisson stance: Benfica (72%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.46
Benfica xG
Expected Goals
0.86
Boavista xG
53%
BTTS
84%
Over 1.5
64%
Over 2.5
42%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Benfica vs Boavista kick off?
Benfica vs Boavista kicked off at 21:15 on Monday 20 February 2023 at Estádio do Sport Lisboa e Benfica.
What was the final score in Benfica vs Boavista?
Benfica 3 - 1 Boavista.
Where is Benfica vs Boavista being played?
The match is being played at Estádio do Sport Lisboa e Benfica.
What competition is Benfica vs Boavista part of?
Benfica vs Boavista is a Regular Season - 21 fixture in the Primeira Liga (Portugal).
Who is favourite to win Benfica vs Boavista?
Our statistical model gives Benfica a 72% chance of winning, Boavista a 11% chance, and a 16% chance of a draw — making Benfica the favourite.
Will both teams score in Benfica vs Boavista?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both Benfica and Boavista will score (BTTS).
Will Benfica vs Boavista have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 64%.
What is the head-to-head record between Benfica and Boavista?
Record (3 meetings): Benfica 2W | Draws 1 | Boavista 0W.
What form are Benfica and Boavista in?
Benfica (all comps): 8W-1D-1L in 10 | 2.50 PPG | GF 2.70 / GA 0.70 | L5 D-W-W-W-W. Boavista (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.50 | L5 D-W-D-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Benfica's attacking strength (1.50x league average) is weighed against Boavista's defensive record (1.22x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 2.46. The same calculation in reverse, Boavista's attack versus Benfica's defence, projects 0.86 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 54/54 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 2-0, at 10.9%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.4%), 3-0 (8.9%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Benfica Win
72%
1.38
16%
6.09
11%
8.93
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 0
10.9%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 1
9.4%
Home win
1 – 0
8.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.46
Benfica xG
Total xG
3.32
0.86
Boavista xG
1.38
72%
Home win
6.09
16%
Draw
8.93
11%
Away win
Goals Markets
84%
Over 1.5
1.19
16%
Under 1.5
6.25
64%
Over 2.5
1.56
36%
Under 2.5
2.78
42%
Over 3.5
2.38
58%
Under 3.5
1.72
24%
Over 4.5
4.17
76%
Under 4.5
1.32
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.89
47%
BTTS No
2.12
Clean Sheet
42%
2.37
9%
11.68
Win to Nil
31%
3.28
1%
104.30
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.6 | 3.1 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 8.9 | 7.7 | 3.3 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 10.9 | 9.4 | 4.1 | 1.2 | 0.3 | – |
| 3 | 8.9 | 7.7 | 3.3 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 5.5 | 4.7 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 2.7 | 2.3 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Benfica vs Boavista?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.9%.
How many goals are Benfica and Boavista expected to score?
The model projects 2.46 expected goals for Benfica and 0.86 for Boavista, a combined total of 3.32.
How confident is the prediction model for Benfica vs Boavista?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 72%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Benfica come into this having played 54 games, going 40W 7D 7L for 2.35 points per game. Their last five reads D-W-W-W-W. The sample for Benfica is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Boavista sit at 1.19 PPG from 54 outings (14W 22D 18L), a run that reads D-W-D-L-D across their last five. The sample for Boavista is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Benfica carry the stronger recent form of the two, 1.16 PPG clear of Boavista — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
Benfica's home form reads 18W 4D 4L across 26 games on their own ground, a 2.23 PPG return.
Away from home, Boavista have taken 0.88 points per game from 26 outings (5W 8D 13L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Benfica come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Benfica are averaging 2.39 goals scored and 0.78 conceded per game recently; Boavista are on 1.15 scored and 1.54 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Boavista in 63%.
Defensively: Benfica have kept a clean sheet in 46% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 54 Results — Primeira Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Benfica
Blended
Boavista
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Benfica and Boavista in coming into this match?
Benfica have gone 40W 7D 7L in their last 54 games (2.35 PPG), while Boavista have gone 14W 22D 18L in their last 54 (1.19 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Benfica at home or Boavista away?
Benfica's home record (2.23 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Benfica at home: 2.23 PPG; Boavista away: 0.88 PPG.
Have Benfica or Boavista been keeping clean sheets recently?
Benfica have kept a clean sheet in 46% of their recent games, Boavista in 19%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
8 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Primeira Liga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 22 February 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
There's a clear current trend here: Benfica have taken the last 3 head-to-head results.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 27 Aug 2022, when Benfica won 0-3 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Benfica's record when hosting Boavista specifically: 4W 0D 0L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
6
Benfica
1
Draws
1
Boavista
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Benfica and Boavista?
From 8 meetings on record, Benfica have won 6, Boavista have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Benfica and Boavista last play each other?
They last met on 22 February 2025, when Benfica 3-0 Boavista.
Who has won more matches between Benfica and Boavista?
Benfica have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Benfica are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 81% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 54% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Boavista are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Benfica 62%, Boavista 65% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 73% for Benfica and 62% for Boavista. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 46% and 35% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Benfica keep a clean sheet in 31% of their matches; Boavista in 31%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Benfica home games / Boavista away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Benfica play Boavista?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 62% of Benfica's games and 65% of Boavista's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Benfica vs Boavista usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 73% of Benfica's matches and 62% of Boavista's.
Do Benfica and Boavista tend to score early?
Benfica have had a goal before half-time in 81% of their recent matches, Boavista in 73% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Benfica cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Boavista.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Benfica beat Boavista 3-1 at Estádio do Sport Lisboa e Benfica, Regular Season - 21, in the Primeira Liga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Benfica 2.46 xG and Boavista 0.86 xG, a combined 3.32. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Benfica attack 1.50 / defence 0.91 against Boavista attack 0.94 / defence 1.22, drawn from 54/54 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Benfica 72% | Draw 16% | Boavista 11%, with Benfica to win its most likely call at 72%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 64%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 84% and landed. Over 3.5 was 42% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Benfica 63%, Boavista 50%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Benfica's trading profile (54 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 46% of the time, and conceded here.
Boavista's trading profile (54 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Benfica arrived the stronger side — 2.35 PPG against 1.19. Form held, and they took the win. Boavista (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.85 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.