Arouca 0-1 Pacos Ferreira – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Pacos Ferreira at 47%, yet other data sources diverge — this Arouca vs Pacos Ferreira fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Pacos Ferreira make the trip to Estádio Municipal de Arouca to face Arouca in Primeira Liga, Regular Season - 26. The match kicks off on Saturday 12 March 2022 at 18:00 UTC.
Form
Arouca (all games): 2W 2D 6L across 10 Primeira Liga fixtures this term — 0.80 PPG. Last five: L L W D L. They are averaging 0.70 goals per game and conceding 2.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Arouca, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Arouca at Estádio Municipal de Arouca this season: 2W 2D 6L from 10 home games — 0.80 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 2.30 conceded per game.
Pacos Ferreira have collected 1.30 PPG across 10 Primeira Liga outings this season: 3W 4D 3L. Last five: D L W W L. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Pacos Ferreira, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Pacos Ferreira away from home this season: 2W 4D 4L from 10 away games — 1.00 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
The travelling side arrive in better shape. Pacos Ferreira are 0.50 PPG clear of Arouca in recent Primeira Liga fixtures (1.30 vs 0.80). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.
Head-to-Head
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 1 head-to-head meetings have produced 0 wins for Arouca, 0 for Pacos Ferreira and 1 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
Scoring has been limited when these teams have met. The 1 previous contests averaged 0.0 goals, making the Under 2.5 the historically backed angle in the goals market. The most recent clash, on 24 Oct 2021, ended 0–0 with a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 0.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading & In-Play
Arouca — key trading statistics (25 games, 12 at home): they score before half-time in 92% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (home games); they fail to score in 40% of games.
Pacos Ferreira — key trading statistics (25 games, 12 at away): they score before half-time in 58% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 25% of games (away games); they fail to score in 36% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Arouca 56% versus Pacos Ferreira 48%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Arouca 56% | Pacos Ferreira 36%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Arouca 0.69 xG and Pacos Ferreira 1.27 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Arouca attack 0.661 / defence 1.559 | Pacos Ferreira attack 0.627 / defence 1.007. League average goals — home 1.042 / away 1.300. Arouca's attack strength of 0.661 is below the league average — the 0.69 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 25 Arouca games / 25 Pacos Ferreira games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Arouca 17% | Draw 35% | Pacos Ferreira 47%. Fair-value odds: Arouca 5.88 | Draw 2.86 | Pacos Ferreira 2.13. Pacos Ferreira hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (35%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 31% | BTTS probability 39% | Total xG 1.96. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 69% probability — total xG of 1.96 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 39% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Pacos Ferreira are the pick at 47% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 35% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Pacos Ferreira if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 1.96 combined xG gives a 31% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 39%. Form rates corroborate: Arouca 50% | Pacos Ferreira 40% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Arouca vs Pacos Ferreira | Competition: Primeira Liga, Regular Season - 26 | Venue: Estádio Municipal de Arouca • Kick-off: Saturday 12 Mar 2022, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Arouca 17% | Draw 35% | Pacos Ferreira 47% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 31% | BTTS 39% | xG Arouca 0.69 / Pacos Ferreira 1.27 • Poisson strength factors: Arouca attack 0.661 / def 1.559 | Pacos Ferreira attack 0.627 / def 1.007 | league avg home 1.042 / away 1.300 • Poisson stance: Pacos Ferreira (47%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.69
Arouca xG
Expected Goals
1.27
Pacos Ferreira xG
39%
BTTS
61%
Over 1.5
31%
Over 2.5
14%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Arouca vs Pacos Ferreira kick off?
Arouca vs Pacos Ferreira kicked off at 18:00 on Saturday 12 March 2022 at Estádio Municipal de Arouca.
What was the final score in Arouca vs Pacos Ferreira?
Arouca 0 - 1 Pacos Ferreira.
Where is Arouca vs Pacos Ferreira being played?
The match is being played at Estádio Municipal de Arouca.
What competition is Arouca vs Pacos Ferreira part of?
Arouca vs Pacos Ferreira is a Regular Season - 26 fixture in the Primeira Liga (Portugal).
Who is favourite to win Arouca vs Pacos Ferreira?
Our statistical model gives Arouca a 17% chance of winning, Pacos Ferreira a 47% chance, and a 35% chance of a draw — making Pacos Ferreira the favourite.
Will both teams score in Arouca vs Pacos Ferreira?
Our model estimates a 39% probability that both Arouca and Pacos Ferreira will score (BTTS).
Will Arouca vs Pacos Ferreira have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 31%.
What is the head-to-head record between Arouca and Pacos Ferreira?
Record (1 meetings): Arouca 0W | Draws 1 | Pacos Ferreira 0W.
What form are Arouca and Pacos Ferreira in?
Arouca (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 2.00 | L5 L-L-W-D-L. Pacos Ferreira (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.20 | L5 D-L-W-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Arouca's attacking strength (0.66x league average) is weighed against Pacos Ferreira's defensive record (1.01x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.69. Flip it around — Pacos Ferreira's attack (0.63x) against Arouca's defence (1.56x) — and the away total comes out at 1.27.
These ratings are built from 25/25 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 0-1, at 16.2%. Close behind: 0-0 (15.6%), 1-1 (14.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 46% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Pacos Ferreira Win
17%
5.76
35%
2.83
47%
2.11
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
17.8%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 0
14.0%
Draw
1 – 1
12.4%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.69
Arouca xG
Total xG
1.96
1.27
Pacos Ferreira xG
5.76
17%
Home win
2.83
35%
Draw
2.11
47%
Away win
Goals Markets
58%
Over 1.5
1.72
42%
Under 1.5
2.38
31%
Over 2.5
3.23
69%
Under 2.5
1.45
14%
Over 3.5
7.14
86%
Under 3.5
1.16
5%
Over 4.5
20.00
95%
Under 4.5
1.05
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
39%
BTTS Yes
2.57
61%
BTTS No
1.64
Clean Sheet
28%
3.56
50%
2.00
Win to Nil
5%
20.50
24%
4.23
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 14.0 | 17.8 | 11.3 | 4.8 | 1.5 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 9.7 | 12.4 | 7.9 | 3.3 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 3.4 | 4.3 | 2.7 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 0.8 | 1.0 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Arouca vs Pacos Ferreira?
Our Poisson model rates 0-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 16.2%.
How many goals are Arouca and Pacos Ferreira expected to score?
The model projects 0.69 expected goals for Arouca and 1.27 for Pacos Ferreira, a combined total of 1.96.
How confident is the prediction model for Arouca vs Pacos Ferreira?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 47%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Arouca's recent record stands at 5W 7D 13L from 25 games, a 0.88 PPG return, with L-L-W-D-L in the last five. The sample for Arouca is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Pacos Ferreira, meanwhile, have gone 6W 9D 10L across 25 games — 1.08 PPG, with D-L-W-W-L in their last five. The sample for Pacos Ferreira is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 0.88 PPG for Arouca against 1.08 for Pacos Ferreira. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Arouca have managed 3W 2D 7L from 12 games — 0.92 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Pacos Ferreira's away record stands at 3W 4D 5L across 12 trips, a 1.08 PPG haul.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Arouca are averaging 0.92 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game recently; Pacos Ferreira are on 0.88 scored and 1.24 conceded.
Last 25 Results — Primeira Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Arouca
Blended
Pacos Ferreira
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Arouca and Pacos Ferreira in coming into this match?
Arouca have gone 5W 7D 13L in their last 25 games (0.88 PPG), while Pacos Ferreira have gone 6W 9D 10L in their last 25 (1.08 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Arouca at home or Pacos Ferreira away?
Pacos Ferreira's away record (1.08 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Arouca at home: 0.92 PPG; Pacos Ferreira away: 1.08 PPG.
Have Arouca or Pacos Ferreira been keeping clean sheets recently?
Arouca have kept a clean sheet in 12% of their recent games, Pacos Ferreira in 32%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 4 times since October 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Primeira Liga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 18 March 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
The last 2 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Arouca have gone 0W 1D 1L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Pacos Ferreira — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
0
Arouca
3
Draws
1
Pacos Ferreira
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Arouca and Pacos Ferreira?
From 4 meetings on record, Arouca have won 0, Pacos Ferreira have won 1, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Arouca and Pacos Ferreira last play each other?
They last met on 18 March 2023, when Arouca 1-1 Pacos Ferreira.
Who has won more matches between Arouca and Pacos Ferreira?
Pacos Ferreira have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Arouca are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 92% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
Pacos Ferreira see a goal before the break in 58% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Arouca 50%, Pacos Ferreira 33% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 58% (Arouca) and 25% (Pacos Ferreira).
On the defensive side: Pacos Ferreira in 42%; Arouca have failed to score in 42% of games; Pacos Ferreira in 42%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Arouca home games / Pacos Ferreira away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Arouca play Pacos Ferreira?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Arouca's recent matches and 33% of Pacos Ferreira's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Arouca vs Pacos Ferreira usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 58% of Arouca's recent games and 25% of Pacos Ferreira's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Arouca and Pacos Ferreira tend to score early?
Arouca have had a goal before half-time in 92% of their recent matches, Pacos Ferreira in 58% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Pacos Ferreira edge out Arouca 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Pacos Ferreira beat Arouca 0-1 at Estádio Municipal de Arouca, Regular Season - 26, in the Primeira Liga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Arouca 0.69 xG and Pacos Ferreira 1.27 xG, a combined 1.96. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Arouca attack 0.66 / defence 1.56 against Pacos Ferreira attack 0.63 / defence 1.01, drawn from 25/25 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Arouca 17% | Draw 35% | Pacos Ferreira 47%, with Pacos Ferreira to win its most likely call at 47%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 31%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 61% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 39% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Arouca 56%, Pacos Ferreira 36%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Arouca's trading profile (25 games, 12 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 40% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Pacos Ferreira's trading profile (25 games, 12 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Arouca 0.88 PPG, Pacos Ferreira 1.08 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Pacos Ferreira win broke the near-deadlock. Arouca (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.92 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 1 against a 2.17 average — tighter than their form line. Pacos Ferreira (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.08 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.