Zaglebie Lubin 2-1 Wisla Plock – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Wisla Plock at 40% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Zaglebie Lubin vs Wisla Plock encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Wisla Plock make the trip to Stadion Zagłębia Lubin to face Zaglebie Lubin in Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 10. The match kicks off on Sunday 18 September 2022 at 14:00 UTC.
Form
Zaglebie Lubin (all games): 2W 4D 4L across 10 Ekstraklasa fixtures this term — 1.00 PPG. Last five: W L L D D. They are averaging 0.70 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Zaglebie Lubin, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Zaglebie Lubin's home record at Stadion Zagłębia Lubin: 2W 5D 3L from 10 Ekstraklasa appearances (1.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game.
Wisla Plock have collected 2.00 PPG across 10 Ekstraklasa outings this season: 6W 2D 2L. Last five: D W L D L. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.30 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Wisla Plock, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Ekstraklasa this season, Wisla Plock have posted 5W 1D 4L from 10 away outings — 1.60 PPG. Away from home they average 1.70 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game.
On a straight form reading, Wisla Plock are the stronger side — 1.00 PPG clear of the hosts (2.00 vs 1.00). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Zaglebie Lubin lead 1W to 1W over the last 2 encounters, with 0 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 4.0 goals per game across 2 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 18 Feb 2022, ended 3–1 with Zaglebie Lubin winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
Zaglebie Lubin — key trading statistics (43 games, 21 at home): they score before half-time in 57% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (home games); they fail to score in 35% of games.
Wisla Plock — key trading statistics (43 games, 21 at away): they score before half-time in 90% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; they lead at the break 46% of the time; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 71% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Zaglebie Lubin 49% versus Wisla Plock 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Zaglebie Lubin 56% | Wisla Plock 60%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Zaglebie Lubin 1.19 xG and Wisla Plock 1.32 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Zaglebie Lubin attack 0.795 / defence 0.950 | Wisla Plock attack 1.155 / defence 1.077. League average goals — home 1.393 / away 1.201. Zaglebie Lubin's attack strength of 0.795 is below the league average — the 1.19 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 43 Zaglebie Lubin games / 43 Wisla Plock games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Zaglebie Lubin 34% | Draw 27% | Wisla Plock 40%. Fair-value odds: Zaglebie Lubin 2.94 | Draw 3.70 | Wisla Plock 2.50. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 46% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 2.51. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 46%/54% — the total xG of 2.51 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Wisla Plock at 40% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Wisla Plock if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.51 combined xG gives a 46% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 51%. Form rates are neutral: Zaglebie Lubin 50% | Wisla Plock 50%.
The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Zaglebie Lubin vs Wisla Plock | Competition: Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 10 | Venue: Stadion Zagłębia Lubin • Kick-off: Sunday 18 Sep 2022, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Zaglebie Lubin 34% | Draw 27% | Wisla Plock 40% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 46% | BTTS 51% | xG Zaglebie Lubin 1.19 / Wisla Plock 1.32 • Poisson strength factors: Zaglebie Lubin attack 0.795 / def 0.950 | Wisla Plock attack 1.155 / def 1.077 | league avg home 1.393 / away 1.201 • Poisson stance: Wisla Plock (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.19
Zaglebie Lubin xG
Expected Goals
1.32
Wisla Plock xG
51%
BTTS
71%
Over 1.5
46%
Over 2.5
24%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Zaglebie Lubin vs Wisla Plock kick off?
Zaglebie Lubin vs Wisla Plock kicked off at 14:00 on Sunday 18 September 2022 at Stadion Zagłębia Lubin.
What was the final score in Zaglebie Lubin vs Wisla Plock?
Zaglebie Lubin 2 - 1 Wisla Plock.
Where is Zaglebie Lubin vs Wisla Plock being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Zagłębia Lubin.
What competition is Zaglebie Lubin vs Wisla Plock part of?
Zaglebie Lubin vs Wisla Plock is a Regular Season - 10 fixture in the Ekstraklasa (Poland).
Who is favourite to win Zaglebie Lubin vs Wisla Plock?
Our statistical model gives Zaglebie Lubin a 34% chance of winning, Wisla Plock a 40% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Wisla Plock the favourite.
Will both teams score in Zaglebie Lubin vs Wisla Plock?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both Zaglebie Lubin and Wisla Plock will score (BTTS).
Will Zaglebie Lubin vs Wisla Plock have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 46%.
What is the head-to-head record between Zaglebie Lubin and Wisla Plock?
Record (2 meetings): Zaglebie Lubin 1W | Draws 0 | Wisla Plock 1W.
What form are Zaglebie Lubin and Wisla Plock in?
Zaglebie Lubin (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-L-L-D-D. Wisla Plock (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 2.30 / GA 1.00 | L5 D-W-L-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Zaglebie Lubin's attack rating (0.80) and Wisla Plock's defence rating (1.08), the model arrives at 1.19 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Wisla Plock's attack (1.16x) against Zaglebie Lubin's defence (0.95x) — and the away total comes out at 1.32.
These ratings are built from 43/43 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.4%. Close behind: 0-0 (9.8%), 0-1 (9.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Wisla Plock Win
34%
2.98
27%
3.72
40%
2.53
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.8%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
10.7%
Away win
1 – 0
9.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.19
Zaglebie Lubin xG
Total xG
2.51
1.32
Wisla Plock xG
2.98
34%
Home win
3.72
27%
Draw
2.53
40%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
46%
Over 2.5
2.17
54%
Under 2.5
1.85
24%
Over 3.5
4.17
76%
Under 3.5
1.32
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.96
49%
BTTS No
2.04
Clean Sheet
27%
3.74
30%
3.29
Win to Nil
9%
11.13
12%
8.33
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.1 | 10.7 | 7.1 | 3.1 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 9.7 | 12.8 | 8.4 | 3.7 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 5.8 | 7.6 | 5.0 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.3 | 3.0 | 2.0 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.7 | 0.9 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Zaglebie Lubin vs Wisla Plock?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.4%.
How many goals are Zaglebie Lubin and Wisla Plock expected to score?
The model projects 1.19 expected goals for Zaglebie Lubin and 1.32 for Wisla Plock, a combined total of 2.51.
How confident is the prediction model for Zaglebie Lubin vs Wisla Plock?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 43 outings, Zaglebie Lubin have picked up 1.12 PPG on a 13W 9D 21L record — W-L-L-D-D across the most recent five. The sample for Zaglebie Lubin is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Wisla Plock's form line: 20W 5D 18L from 43 games, 1.51 PPG, last five D-W-L-D-L. The sample for Wisla Plock is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.12 PPG for Zaglebie Lubin against 1.51 for Wisla Plock. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Zaglebie Lubin have posted 1.29 PPG from 21 outings (7W 6D 8L).
On the road, Wisla Plock have gone 6W 2D 13L from 21 away games — 0.95 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 1.51 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Wisla Plock's season.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Zaglebie Lubin are averaging 1.14 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game recently; Wisla Plock are on 1.58 scored and 1.42 conceded.
Last 43 Results — Ekstraklasa
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Zaglebie Lubin
Blended
Wisla Plock
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Zaglebie Lubin and Wisla Plock in coming into this match?
Zaglebie Lubin have gone 13W 9D 21L in their last 43 games (1.12 PPG), while Wisla Plock have gone 20W 5D 18L in their last 43 (1.51 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Zaglebie Lubin at home or Wisla Plock away?
Zaglebie Lubin's home record (1.29 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Zaglebie Lubin at home: 1.29 PPG; Wisla Plock away: 0.95 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 6 times since August 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Ekstraklasa. They last met on 2 March 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Wisla Plock won 4-0 on 20 Aug 2021, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Zaglebie Lubin have gone 3W 0D 0L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Wisla Plock — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
3
Zaglebie Lubin
0
Draws
3
Wisla Plock
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Zaglebie Lubin and Wisla Plock?
From 6 meetings on record, Zaglebie Lubin have won 3, Wisla Plock have won 3, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Zaglebie Lubin and Wisla Plock last play each other?
They last met on 2 March 2026, when Zaglebie Lubin 2-0 Wisla Plock.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Zaglebie Lubin see a goal before the break in 57% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Wisla Plock are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 90% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Zaglebie Lubin 62%, Wisla Plock 67% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 52% for Zaglebie Lubin and 71% for Wisla Plock. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 43% and 48% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Zaglebie Lubin have failed to score in 29% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Zaglebie Lubin home games / Wisla Plock away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Zaglebie Lubin play Wisla Plock?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 62% of Zaglebie Lubin's games and 67% of Wisla Plock's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Zaglebie Lubin vs Wisla Plock usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 52% of Zaglebie Lubin's matches and 71% of Wisla Plock's.
Do Zaglebie Lubin and Wisla Plock tend to score early?
Zaglebie Lubin have had a goal before half-time in 57% of their recent matches, Wisla Plock in 90% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Zaglebie Lubin defy the odds to beat Wisla Plock 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Zaglebie Lubin beat Wisla Plock 2-1 at Stadion Zagłębia Lubin, Regular Season - 10, in the Ekstraklasa. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Zaglebie Lubin 1.19 xG and Wisla Plock 1.32 xG, a combined 2.51. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Zaglebie Lubin beat their projection by 0.8 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Zaglebie Lubin attack 0.80 / defence 0.95 against Wisla Plock attack 1.16 / defence 1.08, drawn from 43/43 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Zaglebie Lubin 34% | Draw 27% | Wisla Plock 40%, with Wisla Plock to win its most likely call at 40%. The actual Zaglebie Lubin win had been the model's second-ranked read at 34%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 46%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 71% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Zaglebie Lubin 56%, Wisla Plock 60%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Zaglebie Lubin's trading profile (43 games, 21 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did.
Wisla Plock's trading profile (43 games, 21 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Zaglebie Lubin 1.12 PPG, Wisla Plock 1.51 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Zaglebie Lubin win broke the near-deadlock.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.