Zaglebie Lubin 0-0 Warta Poznań – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Warta Poznań at 45%, yet other data sources diverge — this Zaglebie Lubin vs Warta Poznań fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Ekstraklasa clash, Regular Season - 26 as Zaglebie Lubin welcome Warta Poznań to Stadion Zagłębia Lubin. Kick-off is set for Friday 31 March 2023 at 17:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Ekstraklasa games this season, Zaglebie Lubin have gone 4W 1D 5L from 10 outings — a 1.30 PPG return. Last five: W W W L D. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Zaglebie Lubin, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Zaglebie Lubin's home record at Stadion Zagłębia Lubin: 2W 2D 6L from 10 Ekstraklasa appearances (0.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.80 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 0.80 lags behind their overall 1.30 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at Stadion Zagłębia Lubin this season.
Warta Poznań — All Games: 4W 4D 2L from 10 Ekstraklasa fixtures this season — 1.60 PPG. Last five: W W L D W. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 0.80. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for Warta Poznań, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Warta Poznań away from home this season: 6W 1D 3L from 10 away games — 1.90 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 6 away clean sheets from 10 games (60%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Zaglebie Lubin 1.30 PPG, Warta Poznań 1.60 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 3 previous encounters have yielded 1 wins for Zaglebie Lubin, 1 for Warta Poznań and 1 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 3 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.3 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 9 Sep 2022, ended 2–2 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.3 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
Zaglebie Lubin in-play and half-time data (59 games, 29 at home): they score before half-time in 59% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (home games); they fail to score in 36% of games.
Warta Poznań in-play and half-time data (59 games, 29 at away): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 21% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 28% of games (away games); they fail to score in 37% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Zaglebie Lubin 49% versus Warta Poznań 37%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Zaglebie Lubin 59% | Warta Poznań 30%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Zaglebie Lubin 0.92 xG and Warta Poznań 1.31 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Zaglebie Lubin attack 0.788 / defence 1.193 | Warta Poznań attack 1.023 / defence 0.935. League average goals — home 1.249 / away 1.075. Zaglebie Lubin's attack strength of 0.788 is below the league average — the 0.92 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 59 Zaglebie Lubin games / 59 Warta Poznań games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Zaglebie Lubin 25% | Draw 30% | Warta Poznań 45%. Fair-value odds: Zaglebie Lubin 4.00 | Draw 3.33 | Warta Poznań 2.22. Warta Poznań hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (30%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 39% | BTTS probability 45% | Total xG 2.23. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 61% — total xG of 2.23 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 45% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Warta Poznań at 45% — moderate model lean. With a 30% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Warta Poznań offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.23 combined xG gives a 39% probability to Under 2.5 — marginal — conflicting signals, supported by form averaging 2.2 goals per game — though H2H averaging only 3.3 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 45% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Zaglebie Lubin 60% | Warta Poznań 20% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Zaglebie Lubin vs Warta Poznań | Competition: Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 26 | Venue: Stadion Zagłębia Lubin • Kick-off: Friday 31 Mar 2023, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Zaglebie Lubin 25% | Draw 30% | Warta Poznań 45% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 39% | BTTS 45% | xG Zaglebie Lubin 0.92 / Warta Poznań 1.31 • Poisson strength factors: Zaglebie Lubin attack 0.788 / def 1.193 | Warta Poznań attack 1.023 / def 0.935 | league avg home 1.249 / away 1.075 • Poisson stance: Warta Poznań (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.92
Zaglebie Lubin xG
Expected Goals
1.31
Warta Poznań xG
45%
BTTS
66%
Over 1.5
39%
Over 2.5
19%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Zaglebie Lubin vs Warta Poznań kick off?
Zaglebie Lubin vs Warta Poznań kicked off at 17:00 on Friday 31 March 2023 at Stadion Zagłębia Lubin.
What was the final score in Zaglebie Lubin vs Warta Poznań?
Zaglebie Lubin 0 - 0 Warta Poznań.
Where is Zaglebie Lubin vs Warta Poznań being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Zagłębia Lubin.
What competition is Zaglebie Lubin vs Warta Poznań part of?
Zaglebie Lubin vs Warta Poznań is a Regular Season - 26 fixture in the Ekstraklasa (Poland).
Who is favourite to win Zaglebie Lubin vs Warta Poznań?
Our statistical model gives Zaglebie Lubin a 25% chance of winning, Warta Poznań a 45% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Warta Poznań the favourite.
Will both teams score in Zaglebie Lubin vs Warta Poznań?
Our model estimates a 45% probability that both Zaglebie Lubin and Warta Poznań will score (BTTS).
Will Zaglebie Lubin vs Warta Poznań have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 39%.
What is the head-to-head record between Zaglebie Lubin and Warta Poznań?
Record (3 meetings): Zaglebie Lubin 1W | Draws 1 | Warta Poznań 1W.
What form are Zaglebie Lubin and Warta Poznań in?
Zaglebie Lubin (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-W-W-L-D. Warta Poznań (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 0.80 | L5 W-W-L-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Zaglebie Lubin's attacking strength (0.79x league average) is weighed against Warta Poznań's defensive record (0.94x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.92. The same calculation in reverse, Warta Poznań's attack versus Zaglebie Lubin's defence, projects 1.31 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 59/59 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.6%. Close behind: 0-0 (12.4%), 0-1 (12.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 39% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Warta Poznań Win
25%
3.99
30%
3.29
45%
2.24
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
14.1%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.0%
Draw
0 – 0
10.7%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.92
Zaglebie Lubin xG
Total xG
2.23
1.31
Warta Poznań xG
3.99
25%
Home win
3.29
30%
Draw
2.24
45%
Away win
Goals Markets
65%
Over 1.5
1.54
35%
Under 1.5
2.86
39%
Over 2.5
2.56
61%
Under 2.5
1.64
19%
Over 3.5
5.26
81%
Under 3.5
1.23
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
45%
BTTS Yes
2.22
55%
BTTS No
1.82
Clean Sheet
27%
3.72
40%
2.51
Win to Nil
7%
14.83
18%
5.63
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.7 | 14.1 | 9.2 | 4.0 | 1.3 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 9.9 | 13.0 | 8.5 | 3.7 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 4.5 | 6.0 | 3.9 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.4 | 1.8 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Zaglebie Lubin vs Warta Poznań?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.6%.
How many goals are Zaglebie Lubin and Warta Poznań expected to score?
The model projects 0.92 expected goals for Zaglebie Lubin and 1.31 for Warta Poznań, a combined total of 2.23.
How confident is the prediction model for Zaglebie Lubin vs Warta Poznań?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Zaglebie Lubin come into this having played 59 games, going 19W 11D 29L for 1.15 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-W-L-D. The sample for Zaglebie Lubin is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Warta Poznań sit at 1.34 PPG from 59 outings (21W 16D 22L), a run that reads W-W-L-D-W across their last five. The sample for Warta Poznań is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Zaglebie Lubin on 1.15 PPG, Warta Poznań on 1.34. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Zaglebie Lubin's home form reads 8W 7D 14L across 29 games on their own ground, a 1.07 PPG return.
Away from home, Warta Poznań have taken 1.59 points per game from 29 outings (14W 4D 11L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Warta Poznań come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Zaglebie Lubin are averaging 1.14 goals scored and 1.61 conceded per game recently; Warta Poznań are on 1.10 scored and 1.03 conceded.
Last 59 Results — Ekstraklasa
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Zaglebie Lubin
Blended
Warta Poznań
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Zaglebie Lubin and Warta Poznań in coming into this match?
Zaglebie Lubin have gone 19W 11D 29L in their last 59 games (1.15 PPG), while Warta Poznań have gone 21W 16D 22L in their last 59 (1.34 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Zaglebie Lubin at home or Warta Poznań away?
Warta Poznań's away record (1.59 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Zaglebie Lubin at home: 1.07 PPG; Warta Poznań away: 1.59 PPG.
Have Zaglebie Lubin or Warta Poznań been keeping clean sheets recently?
Zaglebie Lubin have kept a clean sheet in 22% of their recent games, Warta Poznań in 34%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
6 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Ekstraklasa. It has been a while since the last meeting — 2 April 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 18 Mar 2022, when Warta Poznań won 0-4 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Zaglebie Lubin's record when hosting Warta Poznań specifically: 1W 1D 1L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
2
Zaglebie Lubin
3
Draws
1
Warta Poznań
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Zaglebie Lubin and Warta Poznań?
From 6 meetings on record, Zaglebie Lubin have won 2, Warta Poznań have won 1, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Zaglebie Lubin and Warta Poznań last play each other?
They last met on 2 April 2024, when Warta Poznań 1-1 Zaglebie Lubin.
Who has won more matches between Zaglebie Lubin and Warta Poznań?
Zaglebie Lubin have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Zaglebie Lubin see a goal before the break in 59% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 10% of those situations.
Warta Poznań are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 41% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Zaglebie Lubin 59%, Warta Poznań 21% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 52% (Zaglebie Lubin) and 28% (Warta Poznań).
On the defensive side: Warta Poznań in 45%; Zaglebie Lubin have failed to score in 34% of games; Warta Poznań in 38%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Zaglebie Lubin home games / Warta Poznań away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Zaglebie Lubin play Warta Poznań?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 59% of Zaglebie Lubin's recent matches and 21% of Warta Poznań's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Zaglebie Lubin vs Warta Poznań usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 52% of Zaglebie Lubin's recent games and 28% of Warta Poznań's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Zaglebie Lubin and Warta Poznań tend to score early?
Zaglebie Lubin have had a goal before half-time in 59% of their recent matches, Warta Poznań in 62% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Zaglebie Lubin's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Zaglebie Lubin and Warta Poznań finished level at 0-0 at Stadion Zagłębia Lubin, Regular Season - 26, in the Ekstraklasa. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Zaglebie Lubin 0.92 xG and Warta Poznań 1.31 xG, a combined 2.23. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Zaglebie Lubin fell 0.9 short of their projected output. Warta Poznań landed 1.3 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Zaglebie Lubin attack 0.79 / defence 1.19 against Warta Poznań attack 1.02 / defence 0.94, drawn from 59/59 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Zaglebie Lubin 25% | Draw 30% | Warta Poznań 45%, with Warta Poznań to win its most likely call at 45%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 39%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 66% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 45% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 45% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Zaglebie Lubin 59%, Warta Poznań 30%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 43%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Zaglebie Lubin's trading profile (59 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 36% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Warta Poznań's trading profile (59 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 37% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and duly kept one; they fail to score in 37% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Zaglebie Lubin 1.15 PPG, Warta Poznań 1.34 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Zaglebie Lubin (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.07 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.55 average — tighter than their form line. Warta Poznań (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.17 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 0.86 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.