Zaglebie Lubin 2-0 Pogon Szczecin – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Zaglebie Lubin at 46%, yet in-form Pogon Szczecin provide a compelling counter-argument — this Zaglebie Lubin vs Pogon Szczecin fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Ekstraklasa clash, Regular Season - 4 as Zaglebie Lubin welcome Pogon Szczecin to Stadion Zagłębia Lubin. Kick-off is set for Sunday 15 August 2021 at 19:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Ekstraklasa games this season, Zaglebie Lubin have gone 1W 0D 1L from 2 outings — a 1.50 PPG return. Last five: L W. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 2.00 conceded. However, 2.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Zaglebie Lubin have played only a handful of Ekstraklasa games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Pogon Szczecin — All Games: 2W 1D 0L from 3 Ekstraklasa fixtures this season — 2.33 PPG. Last five: W D W. Their scoring rate of 1.33 per game is modest, conceding 0.33 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 3 games (67%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in just 33% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. Pogon Szczecin have played only a handful of Ekstraklasa games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Form points away from home here. Pogon Szczecin's 2.33 PPG return is 0.83 points per game ahead of Zaglebie Lubin's 1.50 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Zaglebie Lubin 1.51 xG and Pogon Szczecin 1.08 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Zaglebie Lubin attack 1.227 / defence 1.164 | Pogon Szczecin attack 0.822 / defence 1.163. League average goals — home 1.059 / away 1.128. Data: 2 Zaglebie Lubin games / 3 Pogon Szczecin games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Zaglebie Lubin 46% | Draw 29% | Pogon Szczecin 25%. Fair-value odds: Zaglebie Lubin 2.17 | Draw 3.45 | Pogon Szczecin 4.00. Zaglebie Lubin hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (29%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 48% | BTTS probability 53% | Total xG 2.59. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 48%/52% — the total xG of 2.59 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 53% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Zaglebie Lubin are the pick at 46% — moderate model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Pogon Szczecin (2.33 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Zaglebie Lubin offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.59 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 48% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Zaglebie Lubin vs Pogon Szczecin | Competition: Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 4 | Venue: Stadion Zagłębia Lubin • Kick-off: Sunday 15 Aug 2021, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Zaglebie Lubin 46% | Draw 29% | Pogon Szczecin 25% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 48% | BTTS 53% | xG Zaglebie Lubin 1.51 / Pogon Szczecin 1.08 • Poisson strength factors: Zaglebie Lubin attack 1.227 / def 1.164 | Pogon Szczecin attack 0.822 / def 1.163 | league avg home 1.059 / away 1.128 • Poisson stance: Zaglebie Lubin (46%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.51
Zaglebie Lubin xG
Expected Goals
1.08
Pogon Szczecin xG
53%
BTTS
75%
Over 1.5
48%
Over 2.5
26%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Zaglebie Lubin vs Pogon Szczecin kick off?
Zaglebie Lubin vs Pogon Szczecin kicked off at 19:00 on Sunday 15 August 2021 at Stadion Zagłębia Lubin.
What was the final score in Zaglebie Lubin vs Pogon Szczecin?
Zaglebie Lubin 2 - 0 Pogon Szczecin.
Where is Zaglebie Lubin vs Pogon Szczecin being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Zagłębia Lubin.
What competition is Zaglebie Lubin vs Pogon Szczecin part of?
Zaglebie Lubin vs Pogon Szczecin is a Regular Season - 4 fixture in the Ekstraklasa (Poland).
Who is favourite to win Zaglebie Lubin vs Pogon Szczecin?
Our statistical model gives Zaglebie Lubin a 46% chance of winning, Pogon Szczecin a 25% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Zaglebie Lubin the favourite.
Will both teams score in Zaglebie Lubin vs Pogon Szczecin?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both Zaglebie Lubin and Pogon Szczecin will score (BTTS).
Will Zaglebie Lubin vs Pogon Szczecin have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 48%.
What is the head-to-head record between Zaglebie Lubin and Pogon Szczecin?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Zaglebie Lubin and Pogon Szczecin in?
Zaglebie Lubin (all comps): 1W-0D-1L in 2 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 2.00 | L5 L-W. Pogon Szczecin (all comps): 2W-1D-0L in 3 | 2.33 PPG | GF 1.33 / GA 0.33 | L5 W-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Zaglebie Lubin's attack at 1.23x the league average against Pogon Szczecin's defence at 1.16x — combine the two and it projects 1.51 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Pogon Szczecin's attack versus Zaglebie Lubin's defence, projects 1.08 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 2/3 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.8% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (9.7%), 2-1 (9.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Zaglebie Lubin Win
46%
2.20
29%
3.44
25%
3.93
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.2%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.3%
Home win
2 – 1
9.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.51
Zaglebie Lubin xG
Total xG
2.59
1.08
Pogon Szczecin xG
2.20
46%
Home win
3.44
29%
Draw
3.93
25%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
48%
Over 2.5
2.08
52%
Under 2.5
1.92
26%
Over 3.5
3.85
74%
Under 3.5
1.35
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.88
47%
BTTS No
2.13
Clean Sheet
34%
2.94
22%
4.53
Win to Nil
15%
6.46
6%
17.79
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.5 | 8.1 | 4.4 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.3 | 12.2 | 6.6 | 2.4 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.6 | 9.2 | 5.0 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.3 | 4.6 | 2.5 | 0.9 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.6 | 1.8 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Zaglebie Lubin vs Pogon Szczecin?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.8%.
How many goals are Zaglebie Lubin and Pogon Szczecin expected to score?
The model projects 1.51 expected goals for Zaglebie Lubin and 1.08 for Pogon Szczecin, a combined total of 2.59.
How confident is the prediction model for Zaglebie Lubin vs Pogon Szczecin?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Zaglebie Lubin come into this having played 2 games, going 1W 0D 1L for 1.50 points per game. Their last five reads L-W. It's still early in the season for Zaglebie Lubin, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Pogon Szczecin sit at 2.00 PPG from 2 outings (1W 1D 0L), a run that reads D-W across their last five. It's still early in the season for Pogon Szczecin, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Pogon Szczecin carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.50 PPG clear of Zaglebie Lubin — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Goals in Recent Form
Zaglebie Lubin are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game recently; Pogon Szczecin are on 1.00 scored and 0.50 conceded.
Defensively: Pogon Szczecin in 50% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 2 Results — Ekstraklasa
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Zaglebie Lubin
Early Season
Pogon Szczecin
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Zaglebie Lubin and Pogon Szczecin in coming into this match?
Zaglebie Lubin have gone 1W 0D 1L in their last 2 games (1.50 PPG), while Pogon Szczecin have gone 1W 1D 0L in their last 2 (2.00 PPG).
Have Zaglebie Lubin or Pogon Szczecin been keeping clean sheets recently?
Zaglebie Lubin have kept a clean sheet in 0% of their recent games, Pogon Szczecin in 50%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Ekstraklasa. The two were last together as recently as 15 May 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
There's a clear current trend here: Pogon Szczecin have taken the last 3 head-to-head results.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 24 Nov 2025, when Pogon Szczecin won 5-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Zaglebie Lubin's record when hosting Pogon Szczecin specifically: 2W 1D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Zaglebie Lubin
1
Draws
6
Pogon Szczecin
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Zaglebie Lubin and Pogon Szczecin?
From 10 meetings on record, Zaglebie Lubin have won 3, Pogon Szczecin have won 6, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Zaglebie Lubin and Pogon Szczecin last play each other?
They last met on 15 May 2026, when Zaglebie Lubin 0-1 Pogon Szczecin.
Who has won more matches between Zaglebie Lubin and Pogon Szczecin?
Pogon Szczecin have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Zaglebie Lubin home games / Pogon Szczecin away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Zaglebie Lubin play Pogon Szczecin?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Zaglebie Lubin's recent matches and 50% of Pogon Szczecin's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Zaglebie Lubin vs Pogon Szczecin usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 100% of Zaglebie Lubin's recent games and 0% of Pogon Szczecin's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Zaglebie Lubin and Pogon Szczecin tend to score early?
Zaglebie Lubin have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, Pogon Szczecin in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Zaglebie Lubin cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Pogon Szczecin.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Zaglebie Lubin beat Pogon Szczecin 2-0 at Stadion Zagłębia Lubin, Regular Season - 4, in the Ekstraklasa. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Zaglebie Lubin 1.51 xG and Pogon Szczecin 1.08 xG, a combined 2.59. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Pogon Szczecin landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Zaglebie Lubin attack 1.23 / defence 1.16 against Pogon Szczecin attack 0.82 / defence 1.16, drawn from 2/3 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Zaglebie Lubin 46% | Draw 29% | Pogon Szczecin 25%, with Zaglebie Lubin to win its most likely call at 46%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 48%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 75% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Zaglebie Lubin 100%, Pogon Szczecin 0%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Form vs Result
On form, Pogon Szczecin arrived the stronger side — 2.00 PPG against 1.50. Form was overturned, with Zaglebie Lubin winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Zaglebie Lubin conceded 0 against a 2.00 average — tighter than their form line. Pogon Szczecin managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 0.50 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.