Zaglebie Lubin 1-2 Nieciecza – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Zaglebie Lubin (59%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Zaglebie Lubin face Nieciecza.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
KGHM Zaglebie Arena plays host to Zaglebie Lubin versus Nieciecza in Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 30. Kick-off: Friday 24 April 2026 at 17:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Zaglebie Lubin have collected 1.60 PPG across 10 Ekstraklasa outings this season: 5W 1D 4L. Last five: L L L W L. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 0.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes.
Zaglebie Lubin's form when playing at home: 6W 2D 2L across 10 games at KGHM Zaglebie Arena this term (2.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 0.50 conceded per game. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at KGHM Zaglebie Arena. At home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Nieciecza (all games): 1W 3D 6L across 10 Ekstraklasa outings this term — 0.60 points per game. Last five: L L W L L. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play.
Nieciecza away from home this season: 1W 2D 7L from 10 away games — 0.50 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 2.30 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The points-per-game gap of 1.00 in Zaglebie Lubin's favour (1.60 vs 0.60) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 3 meetings: Zaglebie Lubin 2W, Nieciecza 0W, 1D.
The 3 previous meetings have averaged 2.3 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 24 Oct 2025, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading
Zaglebie Lubin half-time and goal-timing data (29 games, 14 at home): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 57% of the time; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (home games).
Nieciecza half-time and goal-timing data (29 games, 14 at away): they score before half-time in 93% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Zaglebie Lubin 52% and Nieciecza 69% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Zaglebie Lubin 48% | Nieciecza 52%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Zaglebie Lubin 1.59 xG and Nieciecza 0.66 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Zaglebie Lubin attack 0.885 / defence 0.777 | Nieciecza attack 0.757 / defence 1.256. League average goals — home 1.431 / away 1.129. Nieciecza bring a strong defensive rating of 1.256 — this is suppressing Zaglebie Lubin's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Zaglebie Lubin's defence rating of 0.777 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 63 Zaglebie Lubin games / 29 Nieciecza games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Zaglebie Lubin 59% | Draw 26% | Nieciecza 15%. Fair-value odds: Zaglebie Lubin 1.69 | Draw 3.85 | Nieciecza 6.67. The model has a clear lean to Zaglebie Lubin (59%) — a 44pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 39% | BTTS probability 39% | Total xG 2.25. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 61% — total xG of 2.25 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 39% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Zaglebie Lubin at 59% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 26% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 2.25 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 39% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 39% on No. Form rates are neutral: Zaglebie Lubin 20% | Nieciecza 80%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Zaglebie Lubin vs Nieciecza | Competition: Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 30 | Venue: KGHM Zaglebie Arena • Kick-off: Friday 24 Apr 2026, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Zaglebie Lubin 59% | Draw 26% | Nieciecza 15% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 39% | BTTS 39% | xG Zaglebie Lubin 1.59 / Nieciecza 0.66 • Poisson strength factors: Zaglebie Lubin attack 0.885 / def 0.777 | Nieciecza attack 0.757 / def 1.256 | league avg home 1.431 / away 1.129 • Poisson stance: Zaglebie Lubin (59%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.59
Zaglebie Lubin xG
Expected Goals
0.66
Nieciecza xG
39%
BTTS
67%
Over 1.5
39%
Over 2.5
19%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Zaglebie Lubin vs Nieciecza kick off?
Zaglebie Lubin vs Nieciecza kicked off at 17:00 on Friday 24 April 2026 at KGHM Zaglebie Arena.
What was the final score in Zaglebie Lubin vs Nieciecza?
Zaglebie Lubin 1 - 2 Nieciecza.
Where is Zaglebie Lubin vs Nieciecza being played?
The match is being played at KGHM Zaglebie Arena.
What competition is Zaglebie Lubin vs Nieciecza part of?
Zaglebie Lubin vs Nieciecza is a Regular Season - 30 fixture in the Ekstraklasa (Poland).
Who is favourite to win Zaglebie Lubin vs Nieciecza?
Our statistical model gives Zaglebie Lubin a 59% chance of winning, Nieciecza a 15% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Zaglebie Lubin the favourite.
Will both teams score in Zaglebie Lubin vs Nieciecza?
Our model estimates a 39% probability that both Zaglebie Lubin and Nieciecza will score (BTTS).
Will Zaglebie Lubin vs Nieciecza have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 39%.
What is the head-to-head record between Zaglebie Lubin and Nieciecza?
Record (3 meetings): Zaglebie Lubin 2W | Draws 1 | Nieciecza 0W.
What form are Zaglebie Lubin and Nieciecza in?
Zaglebie Lubin (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 0.80 | L5 L-L-L-W-L. Nieciecza (all comps): 1W-3D-6L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.80 | L5 L-L-W-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Zaglebie Lubin's attack rating (0.89) and Nieciecza's defence rating (1.26), the model arrives at 1.59 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Nieciecza's attack (0.76x) against Zaglebie Lubin's defence (0.78x) — and the away total comes out at 0.66.
These ratings are built from 63/29 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 15.3%. Close behind: 2-0 (13.3%), 1-1 (12.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 41% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Zaglebie Lubin Win
59%
1.70
26%
3.78
15%
6.85
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
16.7%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
13.3%
Home win
1 – 1
11.1%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.59
Zaglebie Lubin xG
Total xG
2.25
0.66
Nieciecza xG
1.70
59%
Home win
3.78
26%
Draw
6.85
15%
Away win
Goals Markets
66%
Over 1.5
1.52
34%
Under 1.5
2.94
39%
Over 2.5
2.56
61%
Under 2.5
1.64
19%
Over 3.5
5.26
81%
Under 3.5
1.23
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
39%
BTTS Yes
2.54
61%
BTTS No
1.65
Clean Sheet
52%
1.94
20%
4.90
Win to Nil
30%
3.29
3%
33.55
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.5 | 7.0 | 2.3 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 16.7 | 11.1 | 3.7 | 0.8 | 0.1 | – |
| 2 | 13.3 | 8.8 | 2.9 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 7.0 | 4.7 | 1.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 2.8 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.9 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Zaglebie Lubin vs Nieciecza?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.3%.
How many goals are Zaglebie Lubin and Nieciecza expected to score?
The model projects 1.59 expected goals for Zaglebie Lubin and 0.66 for Nieciecza, a combined total of 2.25.
How confident is the prediction model for Zaglebie Lubin vs Nieciecza?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 59%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 29 outings, Zaglebie Lubin have picked up 1.52 PPG on a 12W 8D 9L record — L-L-L-W-L across the most recent five.
Nieciecza's form line: 6W 7D 16L from 29 games, 0.86 PPG, last five L-L-W-L-L.
Put side by side, Zaglebie Lubin are the form team by 0.66 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Nieciecza.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Zaglebie Lubin have posted 1.86 PPG from 14 outings (7W 5D 2L).
On the road, Nieciecza have gone 3W 3D 8L from 14 away games — 0.86 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Zaglebie Lubin come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Zaglebie Lubin are averaging 1.45 goals scored and 1.17 conceded per game recently; Nieciecza are on 1.17 scored and 1.86 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Nieciecza in 69%.
Last 29 Results — Ekstraklasa
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Zaglebie Lubin
Current Season
Nieciecza
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Zaglebie Lubin and Nieciecza in coming into this match?
Zaglebie Lubin have gone 12W 8D 9L in their last 29 games (1.52 PPG), while Nieciecza have gone 6W 7D 16L in their last 29 (0.86 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Zaglebie Lubin at home or Nieciecza away?
Zaglebie Lubin's home record (1.86 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Zaglebie Lubin at home: 1.86 PPG; Nieciecza away: 0.86 PPG.
Have Zaglebie Lubin or Nieciecza been keeping clean sheets recently?
Zaglebie Lubin have kept a clean sheet in 31% of their recent games, Nieciecza in 10%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 4 times that we have on record, stretching back to September 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Ekstraklasa. They last met on 24 April 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Zaglebie Lubin have gone 1W 0D 1L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Nieciecza — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
2
Zaglebie Lubin
1
Draws
1
Nieciecza
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Zaglebie Lubin and Nieciecza?
From 4 meetings on record, Zaglebie Lubin have won 2, Nieciecza have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Zaglebie Lubin and Nieciecza last play each other?
They last met on 24 April 2026, when Zaglebie Lubin 1-2 Nieciecza.
Who has won more matches between Zaglebie Lubin and Nieciecza?
Zaglebie Lubin have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Zaglebie Lubin are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time.
Nieciecza are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 93% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Zaglebie Lubin 43%, Nieciecza 64% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 43% (Zaglebie Lubin) and 50% (Nieciecza).
On the defensive side: Zaglebie Lubin keep a clean sheet in 43% of their matches; Zaglebie Lubin have failed to score in 29% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Zaglebie Lubin home games / Nieciecza away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Zaglebie Lubin play Nieciecza?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 43% of Zaglebie Lubin's recent matches and 64% of Nieciecza's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Zaglebie Lubin vs Nieciecza usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 43% of Zaglebie Lubin's recent games and 50% of Nieciecza's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Zaglebie Lubin and Nieciecza tend to score early?
Zaglebie Lubin have had a goal before half-time in 79% of their recent matches, Nieciecza in 93% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Nieciecza defy the odds to beat Zaglebie Lubin 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Nieciecza beat Zaglebie Lubin 1-2 at KGHM Zaglebie Arena, Regular Season - 30, in the Ekstraklasa. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Zaglebie Lubin 1.59 xG and Nieciecza 0.66 xG, a combined 2.25. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Nieciecza outscored their 0.66 projection by 1.3. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Zaglebie Lubin attack 0.89 / defence 0.78 against Nieciecza attack 0.76 / defence 1.26, drawn from 63/29 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Zaglebie Lubin 59% | Draw 26% | Nieciecza 15%, with Zaglebie Lubin to win its most likely call at 59%. Instead the game produced a Nieciecza win, an outcome the model had rated at just 15% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 39%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 67% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 39% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Zaglebie Lubin 48%, Nieciecza 52%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Zaglebie Lubin's trading profile (29 games, 14 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.
Nieciecza's trading profile (29 games, 14 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 69% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Zaglebie Lubin arrived the stronger side — 1.52 PPG against 0.86. Form was overturned, with Nieciecza winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Zaglebie Lubin (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 0.86 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Nieciecza (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.14 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 1 against a 1.86 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.