Zaglebie Lubin 2-1 Miedz Legnica – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Miedz Legnica at 39% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Zaglebie Lubin vs Miedz Legnica encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Zaglebie Lubin and Miedz Legnica meet at Stadion Zagłębia Lubin in Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 22. This fixture gets under way on Monday 27 February 2023 at 18:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Zaglebie Lubin have collected 0.70 PPG across 10 Ekstraklasa outings this season: 2W 1D 7L. Last five: L W L L W. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 1.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Zaglebie Lubin, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Zaglebie Lubin have posted 1W 3D 6L at Stadion Zagłębia Lubin — 0.60 PPG. At home they are averaging 0.70 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Miedz Legnica (all games): 3W 4D 3L across 10 Ekstraklasa outings this term — 1.30 points per game. Last five: D D L D W. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Miedz Legnica, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Miedz Legnica's form when playing away from home: 1W 2D 7L across 10 road games this term (0.50 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 0.50 is notably below their overall 1.30 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
On a straight form reading, Miedz Legnica are the stronger side — 0.60 PPG clear of the hosts (1.30 vs 0.70). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Zaglebie Lubin have seen both teams score in 60% of their games, Miedz Legnica in 60%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
Head-to-Head
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 1 head-to-head meetings have produced 1 wins for Zaglebie Lubin, 0 for Miedz Legnica and 0 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
Historically, goals have been at a premium in this fixture — just 1.0 per game from 1 meetings. The Under 2.5 has a clear base rate from the H2H record alone. The most recent clash, on 12 Aug 2022, ended 1–0 with Zaglebie Lubin winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading
Zaglebie Lubin half-time and goal-timing data (21 games, 10 at home): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (home games); they fail to score in 43% of games.
Miedz Legnica half-time and goal-timing data (21 games, 10 at away): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Zaglebie Lubin 43% versus Miedz Legnica 62%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Zaglebie Lubin 52% | Miedz Legnica 52%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Zaglebie Lubin 1.00 xG and Miedz Legnica 1.17 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Zaglebie Lubin attack 0.778 / defence 1.268 | Miedz Legnica attack 0.817 / defence 1.051. League average goals — home 1.220 / away 1.127. Zaglebie Lubin's attack strength of 0.778 is below the league average — the 1.00 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 55 Zaglebie Lubin games / 21 Miedz Legnica games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Zaglebie Lubin 31% | Draw 30% | Miedz Legnica 39%. Fair-value odds: Zaglebie Lubin 3.23 | Draw 3.33 | Miedz Legnica 2.56. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 37% | BTTS probability 44% | Total xG 2.17. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 63% — total xG of 2.17 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 44% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Miedz Legnica at 39% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 30% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Miedz Legnica if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.17 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 37% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 44% on No. This conflicts with form data: Zaglebie Lubin 60% | Miedz Legnica 60% from recent games — a notable divergence.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Zaglebie Lubin vs Miedz Legnica | Competition: Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 22 | Venue: Stadion Zagłębia Lubin • Kick-off: Monday 27 Feb 2023, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Zaglebie Lubin 31% | Draw 30% | Miedz Legnica 39% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 37% | BTTS 44% | xG Zaglebie Lubin 1.00 / Miedz Legnica 1.17 • Poisson strength factors: Zaglebie Lubin attack 0.778 / def 1.268 | Miedz Legnica attack 0.817 / def 1.051 | league avg home 1.220 / away 1.127 • Poisson stance: Miedz Legnica (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.00
Zaglebie Lubin xG
Expected Goals
1.17
Miedz Legnica xG
44%
BTTS
64%
Over 1.5
37%
Over 2.5
17%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Zaglebie Lubin vs Miedz Legnica kick off?
Zaglebie Lubin vs Miedz Legnica kicked off at 18:00 on Monday 27 February 2023 at Stadion Zagłębia Lubin.
What was the final score in Zaglebie Lubin vs Miedz Legnica?
Zaglebie Lubin 2 - 1 Miedz Legnica.
Where is Zaglebie Lubin vs Miedz Legnica being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Zagłębia Lubin.
What competition is Zaglebie Lubin vs Miedz Legnica part of?
Zaglebie Lubin vs Miedz Legnica is a Regular Season - 22 fixture in the Ekstraklasa (Poland).
Who is favourite to win Zaglebie Lubin vs Miedz Legnica?
Our statistical model gives Zaglebie Lubin a 31% chance of winning, Miedz Legnica a 39% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Miedz Legnica the favourite.
Will both teams score in Zaglebie Lubin vs Miedz Legnica?
Our model estimates a 44% probability that both Zaglebie Lubin and Miedz Legnica will score (BTTS).
Will Zaglebie Lubin vs Miedz Legnica have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 37%.
What is the head-to-head record between Zaglebie Lubin and Miedz Legnica?
Record (1 meetings): Zaglebie Lubin 1W | Draws 0 | Miedz Legnica 0W.
What form are Zaglebie Lubin and Miedz Legnica in?
Zaglebie Lubin (all comps): 2W-1D-7L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.90 | L5 L-W-L-L-W. Miedz Legnica (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.10 | L5 D-D-L-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Zaglebie Lubin's attack at 0.78x the league average against Miedz Legnica's defence at 1.05x — combine the two and it projects 1.00 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Miedz Legnica's attack (0.82x) against Zaglebie Lubin's defence (1.27x) — and the away total comes out at 1.17.
These ratings are built from 55/21 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 15.1% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (13.2%), 0-1 (11.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 40% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Miedz Legnica Win
31%
3.25
30%
3.36
39%
2.54
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
13.4%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.4%
Draw
0 – 0
11.5%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.00
Zaglebie Lubin xG
Total xG
2.17
1.17
Miedz Legnica xG
3.25
31%
Home win
3.36
30%
Draw
2.54
39%
Away win
Goals Markets
64%
Over 1.5
1.56
36%
Under 1.5
2.78
37%
Over 2.5
2.70
63%
Under 2.5
1.59
17%
Over 3.5
5.88
83%
Under 3.5
1.20
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
44%
BTTS Yes
2.29
56%
BTTS No
1.78
Clean Sheet
31%
3.22
37%
2.71
Win to Nil
10%
10.45
15%
6.88
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.5 | 13.4 | 7.8 | 3.0 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 11.4 | 13.4 | 7.8 | 3.0 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 5.7 | 6.7 | 3.9 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.9 | 2.2 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Zaglebie Lubin vs Miedz Legnica?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.1%.
How many goals are Zaglebie Lubin and Miedz Legnica expected to score?
The model projects 1.00 expected goals for Zaglebie Lubin and 1.17 for Miedz Legnica, a combined total of 2.17.
How confident is the prediction model for Zaglebie Lubin vs Miedz Legnica?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Zaglebie Lubin's recent record stands at 6W 5D 10L from 21 games, a 1.10 PPG return, with L-W-L-L-W in the last five. The sample for Zaglebie Lubin is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Miedz Legnica, meanwhile, have gone 4W 6D 11L across 21 games — 0.86 PPG, with D-D-L-D-W in their last five. The sample for Miedz Legnica is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.10 PPG for Zaglebie Lubin against 0.86 for Miedz Legnica. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Zaglebie Lubin have managed 1W 3D 6L from 10 games — 0.60 PPG in front of their own supporters. That actually lags their 1.10 PPG overall record — home advantage hasn't been translating into results for them lately.
Miedz Legnica's away record stands at 1W 2D 7L across 10 trips, a 0.50 PPG haul.
Attack vs Defence
Zaglebie Lubin are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 1.52 conceded per game recently; Miedz Legnica are on 1.10 scored and 1.52 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Miedz Legnica in 62%.
Last 21 Results — Ekstraklasa
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Zaglebie Lubin
Blended
Miedz Legnica
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Zaglebie Lubin and Miedz Legnica in coming into this match?
Zaglebie Lubin have gone 6W 5D 10L in their last 21 games (1.10 PPG), while Miedz Legnica have gone 4W 6D 11L in their last 21 (0.86 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Zaglebie Lubin at home or Miedz Legnica away?
Zaglebie Lubin's home record (0.60 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Zaglebie Lubin at home: 0.60 PPG; Miedz Legnica away: 0.50 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 2 times that we have on record, stretching back to August 2022 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Ekstraklasa. It has been a while since the last meeting — 27 February 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
2
Zaglebie Lubin
0
Draws
0
Miedz Legnica
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Zaglebie Lubin and Miedz Legnica?
From 2 meetings on record, Zaglebie Lubin have won 2, Miedz Legnica have won 0, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Zaglebie Lubin and Miedz Legnica last play each other?
They last met on 27 February 2023, when Zaglebie Lubin 2-1 Miedz Legnica.
Who has won more matches between Zaglebie Lubin and Miedz Legnica?
Zaglebie Lubin have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Zaglebie Lubin are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches.
Miedz Legnica are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Zaglebie Lubin 60%, Miedz Legnica 60% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 40% (Zaglebie Lubin) and 50% (Miedz Legnica).
On the defensive side: Zaglebie Lubin have failed to score in 40% of games; Miedz Legnica in 30%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Zaglebie Lubin home games / Miedz Legnica away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Zaglebie Lubin play Miedz Legnica?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 60% of Zaglebie Lubin's games and 60% of Miedz Legnica's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Zaglebie Lubin vs Miedz Legnica usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 40% of Zaglebie Lubin's recent games and 50% of Miedz Legnica's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Zaglebie Lubin and Miedz Legnica tend to score early?
Zaglebie Lubin have had a goal before half-time in 60% of their recent matches, Miedz Legnica in 80% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Zaglebie Lubin defy the odds to beat Miedz Legnica 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Zaglebie Lubin beat Miedz Legnica 2-1 at Stadion Zagłębia Lubin, Regular Season - 22, in the Ekstraklasa. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Zaglebie Lubin 1.00 xG and Miedz Legnica 1.17 xG, a combined 2.17. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Zaglebie Lubin beat their projection by 1.0 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Zaglebie Lubin attack 0.78 / defence 1.27 against Miedz Legnica attack 0.82 / defence 1.05, drawn from 55/21 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Zaglebie Lubin 31% | Draw 30% | Miedz Legnica 39%, with Miedz Legnica to win its most likely call at 39%. The actual Zaglebie Lubin win had been the model's second-ranked read at 31%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 37%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 64% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 44% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Zaglebie Lubin 52%, Miedz Legnica 52%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Zaglebie Lubin's trading profile (21 games, 10 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did.
Miedz Legnica's trading profile (21 games, 10 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Zaglebie Lubin 1.10 PPG, Miedz Legnica 0.86 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Zaglebie Lubin win broke the near-deadlock. Zaglebie Lubin (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.70 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.