Zaglebie Lubin 2-1 ŁKS Łódź – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Zaglebie Lubin at 62% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Zaglebie Lubin vs ŁKS Łódź encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Zaglebie Lubin host ŁKS Łódź at Stadion Zagłębia Lubin in Ekstraklasa (matchday 33). Kick-off is Monday 20 May 2024 at 19:00 UK time.
Form Guide
Zaglebie Lubin — last 10 games: 5W 2D 3L, averaging 1.70 points per game. Last five: L L W W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.10 conceded. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.
Zaglebie Lubin's form when playing at home: 2W 3D 5L across their last 10 home games (0.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 0.90 lags behind their overall 1.70 — home advantage has not translated into better results recently.
Across their last 10 games, ŁKS Łódź have recorded 3W 2D 5L — 1.10 PPG. Last five: W L L L L. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 2.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.60 per game is a high rate — their defence has been exposed regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
When travelling, ŁKS Łódź have posted 1W 1D 8L from their last 10 away outings — 0.40 PPG. Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 2.80 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 0.40 is notably below their overall 1.10 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.
Zaglebie Lubin carry the stronger recent momentum — 0.60 PPG ahead of their opponents on 1.70 vs 1.10. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Both teams have scored in 60% of Zaglebie Lubin's games and 60% of ŁKS Łódź's (from Zaglebie Lubin's last 10 home games and ŁKS Łódź's last 10 away games) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H Record
The H2H picture is flat: the 1 H2H match we hold have produced 1 wins for Zaglebie Lubin, 0 for ŁKS Łódź and 0 draws. Form and model data should carry more weight here. With only 1 H2H match to go on, treat this as a light input.
The 1 H2H match in our data averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 24 Nov 2023, ended Zaglebie Lubin 2–0 ŁKS Łódź — a Zaglebie Lubin win.
The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.
In-Play Profile
Zaglebie Lubin in-play tendencies (last 32 games, 16 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 62% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; of the 12 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 42%; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (home games).
ŁKS Łódź in-play tendencies (last 32 games, 16 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 88% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; of the 4 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 50%; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 69% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 38%; they fail to score in 41% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Zaglebie Lubin 53% versus ŁKS Łódź 53%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Zaglebie Lubin 47% | ŁKS Łódź 59%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Zaglebie Lubin 1.95 xG and ŁKS Łódź 0.84 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Zaglebie Lubin attack 0.824 / defence 0.972 | ŁKS Łódź attack 0.782 / defence 1.596. League average goals — home 1.483 / away 1.112. ŁKS Łódź's defence rating of 1.596 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Zaglebie Lubin's projected output up. ŁKS Łódź's attack rating of 0.782 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 0.84. Data: built from Zaglebie Lubin's last 66 games and ŁKS Łódź's last 32.
Result probabilities: Zaglebie Lubin 62% | Draw 24% | ŁKS Łódź 14%. Fair-value odds: Zaglebie Lubin 1.62 | Draw 4.10 | ŁKS Łódź 7.18. The model has a clear lean to Zaglebie Lubin (62%) — a 38pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 53% | BTTS Yes probability 51% | Total xG 2.79. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 53%/47% — the total xG of 2.79 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 51% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Zaglebie Lubin as the most likely outcome at 62% — clear model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 24% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 2.79 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 53% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Zaglebie Lubin's last 10 home games and ŁKS Łódź's last 10 away games) averaging 3.0 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 51%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Zaglebie Lubin 60% (last 10 home games) | ŁKS Łódź 60% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Zaglebie Lubin vs ŁKS Łódź | Competition: Ekstraklasa, matchday 33 | Venue: Stadion Zagłębia Lubin • Kick-off: Monday 20 May 2024 at 19:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Zaglebie Lubin 62% | Draw 24% | ŁKS Łódź 14% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 53% (Under 47%) | BTTS Yes 51% (No 49%) | xG Zaglebie Lubin 1.95 / ŁKS Łódź 0.84 • Poisson strength factors: Zaglebie Lubin attack 0.824 / def 0.972 | ŁKS Łódź attack 0.782 / def 1.596 | league avg home 1.483 / away 1.112 • Poisson stance: Zaglebie Lubin (62%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.95
Zaglebie Lubin xG
Expected Goals
0.84
ŁKS Łódź xG
51%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
53%
Over 2.5
31%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Zaglebie Lubin vs ŁKS Łódź FAQs
What time does Zaglebie Lubin vs ŁKS Łódź kick off?
Zaglebie Lubin vs ŁKS Łódź kicked off at 19:00 UK time on Monday 20 May 2024 at Stadion Zagłębia Lubin.
What was the final score in Zaglebie Lubin vs ŁKS Łódź?
Zaglebie Lubin 2 - 1 ŁKS Łódź.
Where is Zaglebie Lubin vs ŁKS Łódź being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Zagłębia Lubin.
What competition is Zaglebie Lubin vs ŁKS Łódź part of?
Zaglebie Lubin vs ŁKS Łódź is a Ekstraklasa fixture (matchday 33) (Poland).
Who is favourite to win Zaglebie Lubin vs ŁKS Łódź?
Our statistical model gives Zaglebie Lubin a 62% chance of winning, ŁKS Łódź a 14% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Zaglebie Lubin the favourite.
Will both teams score in Zaglebie Lubin vs ŁKS Łódź?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both Zaglebie Lubin and ŁKS Łódź will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Zaglebie Lubin vs ŁKS Łódź have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 53%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Zaglebie Lubin's attack rating (0.82) and ŁKS Łódź's defence rating (1.60), the model arrives at 1.95 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, ŁKS Łódź's attack versus Zaglebie Lubin's defence, projects 0.84 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Zaglebie Lubin's last 66 games and ŁKS Łódź's last 32 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 2-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 11.6%. Close behind: 1-1 (11.4%), 1-0 (10.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Zaglebie Lubin Win
62%
1.62
24%
4.10
14%
7.18
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
11.9%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
11.6%
Home win
1 – 1
10.1%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.95
Zaglebie Lubin xG
Total xG
2.79
0.84
ŁKS Łódź xG
1.62
62%
Home win
4.10
24%
Draw
7.18
14%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
53%
Over 2.5
1.89
47%
Under 2.5
2.13
31%
Over 3.5
3.23
69%
Under 3.5
1.45
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.98
49%
BTTS No
2.02
Clean Sheet
43%
2.33
14%
7.03
Win to Nil
27%
3.77
2%
50.49
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.1 | 5.2 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 11.9 | 10.1 | 4.2 | 1.2 | 0.3 | – |
| 2 | 11.6 | 9.8 | 4.1 | 1.2 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 7.6 | 6.4 | 2.7 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 3.7 | 3.1 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.4 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Zaglebie Lubin vs ŁKS Łódź Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Zaglebie Lubin vs ŁKS Łódź?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.6%.
How many goals are Zaglebie Lubin and ŁKS Łódź expected to score?
The model projects 1.95 expected goals for Zaglebie Lubin and 0.84 for ŁKS Łódź, a combined total of 2.79.
How confident is the prediction model for Zaglebie Lubin vs ŁKS Łódź?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 62%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Zaglebie Lubin's recent record stands at 12W 8D 12L from 32 games, a 1.38 PPG return, with L-L-W-W-W in the last five.
ŁKS Łódź, meanwhile, have gone 5W 6D 21L across 32 games — 0.66 PPG, with W-L-L-L-L in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours Zaglebie Lubin by 0.72 — a real, if not enormous, edge over ŁKS Łódź heading into this one.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Zaglebie Lubin have managed 6W 5D 5L from their last 16 home games — 1.44 PPG in front of their own supporters.
ŁKS Łódź's away record stands at 1W 1D 14L across their last 16 away games, a 0.25 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 0.66 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of ŁKS Łódź's recent record.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Zaglebie Lubin come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Zaglebie Lubin are averaging 1.25 goals scored and 1.47 conceded per game recently; ŁKS Łódź are on 0.94 scored and 2.22 conceded.
Last 32 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Zaglebie Lubin
Current Season
ŁKS Łódź
Current Season
Zaglebie Lubin (Home) vs ŁKS Łódź (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Zaglebie Lubin
Current Season
ŁKS Łódź
Current Season
❓ Zaglebie Lubin vs ŁKS Łódź Form FAQs
What form are Zaglebie Lubin and ŁKS Łódź in coming into this match?
Zaglebie Lubin have gone 12W 8D 12L in their last 32 games (1.38 PPG), while ŁKS Łódź have gone 5W 6D 21L in their last 32 (0.66 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Zaglebie Lubin at home or ŁKS Łódź away?
Zaglebie Lubin's home record (1.44 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Zaglebie Lubin at home: 1.44 PPG; ŁKS Łódź away: 0.25 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 2 H2H matches in our data, going back to November 2023. All of them came in Ekstraklasa. The most recent in our data was on 20 May 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
2
Zaglebie Lubin
0
Draws
0
ŁKS Łódź
Recent Meetings
❓ Zaglebie Lubin vs ŁKS Łódź H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Zaglebie Lubin and ŁKS Łódź?
Across the 2 head-to-head matches in our data, Zaglebie Lubin have won 2, ŁKS Łódź have won 0, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Zaglebie Lubin and ŁKS Łódź last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 20 May 2024: Zaglebie Lubin 2-1 ŁKS Łódź.
Who has won more matches between Zaglebie Lubin and ŁKS Łódź?
Zaglebie Lubin have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from the 2 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Zaglebie Lubin are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 31% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 60% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
ŁKS Łódź are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 88% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Zaglebie Lubin 56%, ŁKS Łódź 44% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 38% (Zaglebie Lubin) and 69% (ŁKS Łódź).
On the defensive side: Zaglebie Lubin keep a clean sheet in 38% of their matches; ŁKS Łódź in 50%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Zaglebie Lubin home games / ŁKS Łódź away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Zaglebie Lubin vs ŁKS Łódź Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Zaglebie Lubin and ŁKS Łódź matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 56% of Zaglebie Lubin's recent matches and 44% of ŁKS Łódź's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Zaglebie Lubin and ŁKS Łódź matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 38% of Zaglebie Lubin's recent games and 69% of ŁKS Łódź's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Zaglebie Lubin and ŁKS Łódź matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 62% of Zaglebie Lubin's recent matches and 88% of ŁKS Łódź's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Zaglebie Lubin edge out ŁKS Łódź 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Zaglebie Lubin beat ŁKS Łódź 2-1 at Stadion Zagłębia Lubin, Regular Season - 33, in the Ekstraklasa. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Zaglebie Lubin 1.95 xG and ŁKS Łódź 0.84 xG, a combined 2.79. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Zaglebie Lubin attack 0.82 / defence 0.97 against ŁKS Łódź attack 0.78 / defence 1.60, drawn from 66/32 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Zaglebie Lubin 62% | Draw 24% | ŁKS Łódź 14%, with Zaglebie Lubin to win its most likely call at 62%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 53%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 78% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Zaglebie Lubin 47%, ŁKS Łódź 59%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Zaglebie Lubin's trading profile (32 games, 16 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did.
ŁKS Łódź's trading profile (32 games, 16 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Zaglebie Lubin arrived the stronger side — 1.38 PPG against 0.66. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Zaglebie Lubin (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.06 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.