Zaglebie Lubin 1-1 Korona Kielce – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Korona Kielce at 45% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Zaglebie Lubin vs Korona Kielce encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
Korona Kielce travel to Stadion Zagłębia Lubin to take on Zaglebie Lubin in Ekstraklasa (matchday 25). The game is scheduled for Sunday 16 March 2025 at 13:45 UK time.
Recent Form
Across their last 10 games, Zaglebie Lubin have gone 1W 1D 8L — a 0.40 PPG return. Last five: W L L L L. They are averaging 0.60 goals per game and conceding 1.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market.
Zaglebie Lubin's form when playing at home: 4W 0D 6L across their last 10 home games (1.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from their last 10 home games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Their home PPG of 1.20 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.40 — Zaglebie Lubin are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.
Looking at their last 10 matches, Korona Kielce stand at 4W 5D 1L — 1.70 PPG. Last five: W D W W W. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 0.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not.
When travelling, Korona Kielce have posted 3W 5D 2L from their last 10 away outings — 1.40 PPG. Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Korona Kielce are 1.30 PPG ahead (1.70 vs 0.40), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
H2H
The H2H picture is flat: the 5 H2H matches we hold have produced 1 wins for Zaglebie Lubin, 2 for Korona Kielce and 2 draws. Form and model data should carry more weight here.
The 5 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.2 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 15 Sep 2024, ended Zaglebie Lubin 0–2 Korona Kielce — a Korona Kielce win.
The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.
In-Play Data
Zaglebie Lubin trading profile (last 58 games, 28 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 68% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 92% of the time; of the 16 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 38%; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (home games).
Korona Kielce trading profile (last 58 games, 28 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 64% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; of the 12 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 33%; of the 19 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 32%; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 36% of games (away games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Zaglebie Lubin 50% versus Korona Kielce 52%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Zaglebie Lubin 47% | Korona Kielce 36%). There is an in-play dynamic worth noting: Zaglebie Lubin surrender their half-time lead 38% of the time, while Korona Kielce have come from behind at the break to draw or win in 32% of cases — a combination that makes laying the hosts at HT a potential angle.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Zaglebie Lubin 0.90 xG and Korona Kielce 1.26 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Zaglebie Lubin attack 0.756 / defence 1.202 | Korona Kielce attack 0.879 / defence 0.832. League average goals — home 1.434 / away 1.197. Zaglebie Lubin's attack rating of 0.756 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 0.90. Zaglebie Lubin's defence rating of 1.202 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Korona Kielce's projected output up. Data: built from Zaglebie Lubin's last 58 games and Korona Kielce's last 58.
Result probabilities: Zaglebie Lubin 26% | Draw 29% | Korona Kielce 45%. Fair-value odds: Zaglebie Lubin 3.78 | Draw 3.48 | Korona Kielce 2.23. Korona Kielce hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (29%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 37% | BTTS Yes probability 43% | Total xG 2.17. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 63% — total xG of 2.17 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 57% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Korona Kielce as the most likely outcome at 45% — moderate model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Korona Kielce offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.17 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 63% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Zaglebie Lubin's last 10 home games and Korona Kielce's last 10 away games) averaging 2.2 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 57%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Zaglebie Lubin 30% (last 10 home games) | Korona Kielce 60% (last 10 away games).
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Zaglebie Lubin vs Korona Kielce | Competition: Ekstraklasa, matchday 25 | Venue: Stadion Zagłębia Lubin • Kick-off: Sunday 16 March 2025 at 13:45 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Zaglebie Lubin 26% | Draw 29% | Korona Kielce 45% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 37% (Under 63%) | BTTS Yes 43% (No 57%) | xG Zaglebie Lubin 0.90 / Korona Kielce 1.26 • Poisson strength factors: Zaglebie Lubin attack 0.756 / def 1.202 | Korona Kielce attack 0.879 / def 0.832 | league avg home 1.434 / away 1.197 • Poisson stance: Korona Kielce (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.90
Zaglebie Lubin xG
Expected Goals
1.26
Korona Kielce xG
43%
BTTS
64%
Over 1.5
37%
Over 2.5
17%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Zaglebie Lubin vs Korona Kielce FAQs
What time does Zaglebie Lubin vs Korona Kielce kick off?
Zaglebie Lubin vs Korona Kielce kicked off at 13:45 UK time on Sunday 16 March 2025 at Stadion Zagłębia Lubin.
What was the final score in Zaglebie Lubin vs Korona Kielce?
Zaglebie Lubin 1 - 1 Korona Kielce.
Where is Zaglebie Lubin vs Korona Kielce being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Zagłębia Lubin.
What competition is Zaglebie Lubin vs Korona Kielce part of?
Zaglebie Lubin vs Korona Kielce is a Ekstraklasa fixture (matchday 25) (Poland).
Who is favourite to win Zaglebie Lubin vs Korona Kielce?
Our statistical model gives Zaglebie Lubin a 26% chance of winning, Korona Kielce a 45% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Korona Kielce the favourite.
Will both teams score in Zaglebie Lubin vs Korona Kielce?
Our model estimates a 43% probability that both Zaglebie Lubin and Korona Kielce will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (57%).
Will Zaglebie Lubin vs Korona Kielce have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 37%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (63%).
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Zaglebie Lubin's attack rating (0.76) and Korona Kielce's defence rating (0.83), the model arrives at 0.90 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Korona Kielce's attack versus Zaglebie Lubin's defence, projects 1.26 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Zaglebie Lubin's last 58 games and Korona Kielce's last 58 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.8%. Close behind: 0-0 (13.2%), 0-1 (12.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 41% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Korona Kielce Win
26%
3.78
29%
3.48
45%
2.23
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
14.5%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.1%
Draw
0 – 0
11.5%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.90
Zaglebie Lubin xG
Total xG
2.17
1.26
Korona Kielce xG
3.78
26%
Home win
3.48
29%
Draw
2.23
45%
Away win
Goals Markets
64%
Over 1.5
1.56
36%
Under 1.5
2.78
37%
Over 2.5
2.70
63%
Under 2.5
1.59
17%
Over 3.5
5.88
83%
Under 3.5
1.20
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
43%
BTTS Yes
2.35
57%
BTTS No
1.74
Clean Sheet
28%
3.54
41%
2.46
Win to Nil
7%
13.38
18%
5.51
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.5 | 14.5 | 9.2 | 3.9 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 10.3 | 13.1 | 8.3 | 3.5 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 4.7 | 5.9 | 3.7 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.4 | 1.8 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Zaglebie Lubin vs Korona Kielce Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Zaglebie Lubin vs Korona Kielce?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.8%.
How many goals are Zaglebie Lubin and Korona Kielce expected to score?
The model projects 0.90 expected goals for Zaglebie Lubin and 1.26 for Korona Kielce, a combined total of 2.17.
How confident is the prediction model for Zaglebie Lubin vs Korona Kielce?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Zaglebie Lubin come into this having played 58 games, going 19W 12D 27L for 1.19 points per game. Their last five reads W-L-L-L-L.
On the other side, Korona Kielce sit at 1.21 PPG from 58 outings (16W 22D 20L), a run that reads W-D-W-W-W across their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Zaglebie Lubin on 1.19 PPG, Korona Kielce on 1.21. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
Zaglebie Lubin's home form reads 11W 6D 11L across their last 28 home games, a 1.39 PPG return.
Away from home, Korona Kielce have taken 0.96 points per game from their last 28 away games (5W 12D 11L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Zaglebie Lubin come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Zaglebie Lubin are averaging 1.09 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game recently; Korona Kielce are on 1.09 scored and 1.28 conceded.
Last 58 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Zaglebie Lubin
Blended
Korona Kielce
Blended
Zaglebie Lubin (Home) vs Korona Kielce (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Zaglebie Lubin
Blended
Korona Kielce
Blended
❓ Zaglebie Lubin vs Korona Kielce Form FAQs
What form are Zaglebie Lubin and Korona Kielce in coming into this match?
Zaglebie Lubin have gone 19W 12D 27L in their last 58 games (1.19 PPG), while Korona Kielce have gone 16W 22D 20L in their last 58 (1.21 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Zaglebie Lubin at home or Korona Kielce away?
Zaglebie Lubin's home record (1.39 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Zaglebie Lubin at home: 1.39 PPG; Korona Kielce away: 0.96 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 9 H2H matches in our data, going back to October 2022. All of them came in Ekstraklasa. The most recent was as recently as 2 November 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Digging Into the Numbers
Zaglebie Lubin have won each of the latest 2 H2H matches we hold, a run that gives them the edge coming in.
Zaglebie Lubin's record when hosting Korona Kielce specifically: 2W 3D 0L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 9 Meetings
3
Zaglebie Lubin
4
Draws
2
Korona Kielce
Recent Meetings
❓ Zaglebie Lubin vs Korona Kielce H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Zaglebie Lubin and Korona Kielce?
Across the 9 head-to-head matches in our data, Zaglebie Lubin have won 3, Korona Kielce have won 2, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Zaglebie Lubin and Korona Kielce last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 2 November 2026: Zaglebie Lubin 1-0 Korona Kielce.
Who has won more matches between Zaglebie Lubin and Korona Kielce?
Zaglebie Lubin have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from the 9 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Zaglebie Lubin are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 50% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Korona Kielce are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Zaglebie Lubin 50%, Korona Kielce 54% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 46% (Zaglebie Lubin) and 36% (Korona Kielce).
On the defensive side: Zaglebie Lubin keep a clean sheet in 36% of their matches; Korona Kielce in 39%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Zaglebie Lubin home games / Korona Kielce away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Zaglebie Lubin vs Korona Kielce Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Zaglebie Lubin and Korona Kielce matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Zaglebie Lubin's recent matches and 54% of Korona Kielce's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Zaglebie Lubin and Korona Kielce matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 46% of Zaglebie Lubin's recent games and 36% of Korona Kielce's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Zaglebie Lubin and Korona Kielce matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 68% of Zaglebie Lubin's recent matches and 64% of Korona Kielce's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Zaglebie Lubin and Korona Kielce share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Zaglebie Lubin and Korona Kielce finished level at 1-1 at Stadion Zagłębia Lubin, Regular Season - 25, in the Ekstraklasa. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Zaglebie Lubin 0.90 xG and Korona Kielce 1.26 xG, a combined 2.17. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Zaglebie Lubin attack 0.76 / defence 1.20 against Korona Kielce attack 0.88 / defence 0.83, drawn from 58/58 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Zaglebie Lubin 26% | Draw 29% | Korona Kielce 45%, with Korona Kielce to win its most likely call at 45%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 37%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 64% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 43% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 41% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Zaglebie Lubin 47%, Korona Kielce 36%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Zaglebie Lubin's trading profile (58 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.
Korona Kielce's trading profile (58 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Zaglebie Lubin 1.19 PPG, Korona Kielce 1.21 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.