Zaglebie Lubin 2-1 Gornik Zabrze – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Gornik Zabrze at 44% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Zaglebie Lubin vs Gornik Zabrze encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Zaglebie Lubin host Gornik Zabrze at Stadion Zagłębia Lubin in Ekstraklasa (matchday 28). Kick-off is Friday 11 April 2025 at 18:00 UK time.
Form Guide
Zaglebie Lubin — last 10 games: 2W 1D 7L, averaging 0.70 points per game. Last five: L L D L W. They are averaging 0.60 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%).
In front of their own supporters, Zaglebie Lubin have posted 3W 1D 6L from their last 10 home games — 1.00 PPG. At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game.
Looking at their last 10 matches, Gornik Zabrze stand at 4W 1D 5L — 1.30 PPG. Last five: L W W L L. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Gornik Zabrze's form when playing away from home: 4W 1D 5L across their last 10 road games (1.30 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Gornik Zabrze are 0.60 PPG ahead (1.30 vs 0.70), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides in our head-to-head data. From 7 H2H matches, Zaglebie Lubin have won 3, Gornik Zabrze 3, with 1 draw — a balanced record that offers no clear steer on its own.
The 7 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.7 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 5 Oct 2024, ended Zaglebie Lubin 1–0 Gornik Zabrze — a Zaglebie Lubin win.
The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
Zaglebie Lubin in-play and half-time data (last 61 games, 30 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 67% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 93% of the time; of the 18 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 39%; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (home games).
Gornik Zabrze in-play and half-time data (last 61 games, 30 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 80% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; of the 23 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 35%; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Zaglebie Lubin 49% versus Gornik Zabrze 52%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Zaglebie Lubin 44% | Gornik Zabrze 49%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Zaglebie Lubin 1.11 xG and Gornik Zabrze 1.44 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Zaglebie Lubin attack 0.727 / defence 1.221 | Gornik Zabrze attack 1.011 / defence 1.050. League average goals — home 1.456 / away 1.162. Zaglebie Lubin's attack rating of 0.727 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 1.11. Zaglebie Lubin's defence rating of 1.221 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Gornik Zabrze's projected output up. Data: built from Zaglebie Lubin's last 61 games and Gornik Zabrze's last 61.
Result probabilities: Zaglebie Lubin 29% | Draw 26% | Gornik Zabrze 44%. Fair-value odds: Zaglebie Lubin 3.42 | Draw 3.80 | Gornik Zabrze 2.25. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 47% | BTTS Yes probability 51% | Total xG 2.55. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 47%/53% — the total xG of 2.55 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 51% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Gornik Zabrze as the most likely outcome at 44% — marginal model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Gornik Zabrze offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.55 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 53% — low conviction — though the H2H data averaging 2.7 goals per game across 7 H2H matches points the other way.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 51% on Yes. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Zaglebie Lubin 40% (last 10 home games) | Gornik Zabrze 50% (last 10 away games).
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Zaglebie Lubin vs Gornik Zabrze | Competition: Ekstraklasa, matchday 28 | Venue: Stadion Zagłębia Lubin • Kick-off: Friday 11 April 2025 at 18:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Zaglebie Lubin 29% | Draw 26% | Gornik Zabrze 44% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 47% (Under 53%) | BTTS Yes 51% (No 49%) | xG Zaglebie Lubin 1.11 / Gornik Zabrze 1.44 • Poisson strength factors: Zaglebie Lubin attack 0.727 / def 1.221 | Gornik Zabrze attack 1.011 / def 1.050 | league avg home 1.456 / away 1.162 • Poisson stance: Gornik Zabrze (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.11
Zaglebie Lubin xG
Expected Goals
1.44
Gornik Zabrze xG
51%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
47%
Over 2.5
25%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Zaglebie Lubin vs Gornik Zabrze FAQs
What time does Zaglebie Lubin vs Gornik Zabrze kick off?
Zaglebie Lubin vs Gornik Zabrze kicked off at 18:00 UK time on Friday 11 April 2025 at Stadion Zagłębia Lubin.
What was the final score in Zaglebie Lubin vs Gornik Zabrze?
Zaglebie Lubin 2 - 1 Gornik Zabrze.
Where is Zaglebie Lubin vs Gornik Zabrze being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Zagłębia Lubin.
What competition is Zaglebie Lubin vs Gornik Zabrze part of?
Zaglebie Lubin vs Gornik Zabrze is a Ekstraklasa fixture (matchday 28) (Poland).
Who is favourite to win Zaglebie Lubin vs Gornik Zabrze?
Our statistical model gives Zaglebie Lubin a 29% chance of winning, Gornik Zabrze a 44% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Gornik Zabrze the favourite.
Will both teams score in Zaglebie Lubin vs Gornik Zabrze?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both Zaglebie Lubin and Gornik Zabrze will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Zaglebie Lubin vs Gornik Zabrze have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 47%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (53%).
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Zaglebie Lubin's attacking strength (0.73x league average) is weighed against Gornik Zabrze's defensive record (1.05x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.11. The same calculation in reverse, Gornik Zabrze's attack versus Zaglebie Lubin's defence, projects 1.44 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Zaglebie Lubin's last 61 games and Gornik Zabrze's last 61 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.1%. Close behind: 0-1 (9.6%), 0-0 (9.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Gornik Zabrze Win
29%
3.42
26%
3.80
44%
2.25
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.5%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
11.2%
Away win
1 – 2
9.0%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.11
Zaglebie Lubin xG
Total xG
2.55
1.44
Gornik Zabrze xG
3.42
29%
Home win
3.80
26%
Draw
2.25
44%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
47%
Over 2.5
2.13
53%
Under 2.5
1.89
25%
Over 3.5
4.00
75%
Under 3.5
1.33
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.96
49%
BTTS No
2.05
Clean Sheet
24%
4.20
33%
3.04
Win to Nil
7%
14.35
15%
6.84
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.8 | 11.2 | 8.1 | 3.9 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 8.7 | 12.5 | 9.0 | 4.3 | 1.5 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 4.8 | 6.9 | 5.0 | 2.4 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 1.8 | 2.6 | 1.8 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Zaglebie Lubin vs Gornik Zabrze Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Zaglebie Lubin vs Gornik Zabrze?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.1%.
How many goals are Zaglebie Lubin and Gornik Zabrze expected to score?
The model projects 1.11 expected goals for Zaglebie Lubin and 1.44 for Gornik Zabrze, a combined total of 2.55.
How confident is the prediction model for Zaglebie Lubin vs Gornik Zabrze?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Zaglebie Lubin's recent record stands at 20W 13D 28L from 61 games, a 1.20 PPG return, with L-L-D-L-W in the last five.
Gornik Zabrze, meanwhile, have gone 27W 12D 22L across 61 games — 1.52 PPG, with L-W-W-L-L in their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Zaglebie Lubin on 1.20 PPG, Gornik Zabrze on 1.52. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Zaglebie Lubin have managed 11W 7D 12L from their last 30 home games — 1.33 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Gornik Zabrze's away record stands at 11W 5D 14L across their last 30 away games, a 1.27 PPG haul.
Goals in Recent Form
Zaglebie Lubin are averaging 1.07 goals scored and 1.48 conceded per game recently; Gornik Zabrze are on 1.36 scored and 1.21 conceded.
Last 61 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Zaglebie Lubin
Blended
Gornik Zabrze
Blended
Zaglebie Lubin (Home) vs Gornik Zabrze (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Zaglebie Lubin
Blended
Gornik Zabrze
Blended
❓ Zaglebie Lubin vs Gornik Zabrze Form FAQs
What form are Zaglebie Lubin and Gornik Zabrze in coming into this match?
Zaglebie Lubin have gone 20W 13D 28L in their last 61 games (1.20 PPG), while Gornik Zabrze have gone 27W 12D 22L in their last 61 (1.52 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Zaglebie Lubin at home or Gornik Zabrze away?
Zaglebie Lubin's home record (1.33 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Zaglebie Lubin at home: 1.33 PPG; Gornik Zabrze away: 1.27 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 10 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 4 years from October 2021. All of them came in Ekstraklasa. The most recent was on 9 May 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Zaglebie Lubin have won the most recent 4 H2H matches in our data — the current momentum in this pairing sits with them.
Zaglebie Lubin's record when hosting Gornik Zabrze specifically: 2W 0D 3L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
6
Zaglebie Lubin
1
Draws
3
Gornik Zabrze
Recent Meetings
❓ Zaglebie Lubin vs Gornik Zabrze H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Zaglebie Lubin and Gornik Zabrze?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Zaglebie Lubin have won 6, Gornik Zabrze have won 3, and 1 has been drawn.
When did Zaglebie Lubin and Gornik Zabrze last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 9 May 2026: Gornik Zabrze 0-2 Zaglebie Lubin.
Who has won more matches between Zaglebie Lubin and Gornik Zabrze?
Zaglebie Lubin have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Zaglebie Lubin are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 56% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Gornik Zabrze are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 44% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Zaglebie Lubin 50%, Gornik Zabrze 60% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 43% (Zaglebie Lubin) and 57% (Gornik Zabrze).
On the defensive side: Zaglebie Lubin keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Zaglebie Lubin home games / Gornik Zabrze away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Zaglebie Lubin vs Gornik Zabrze Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Zaglebie Lubin and Gornik Zabrze matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 50% of Zaglebie Lubin's games and 60% of Gornik Zabrze's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Zaglebie Lubin and Gornik Zabrze matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 43% of Zaglebie Lubin's recent games and 57% of Gornik Zabrze's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Zaglebie Lubin and Gornik Zabrze matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 67% of Zaglebie Lubin's recent matches and 80% of Gornik Zabrze's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Zaglebie Lubin defy the odds to beat Gornik Zabrze 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Zaglebie Lubin beat Gornik Zabrze 2-1 at Stadion Zagłębia Lubin, Regular Season - 28, in the Ekstraklasa. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Zaglebie Lubin 1.11 xG and Gornik Zabrze 1.44 xG, a combined 2.55. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Zaglebie Lubin beat their projection by 0.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Zaglebie Lubin attack 0.73 / defence 1.22 against Gornik Zabrze attack 1.01 / defence 1.05, drawn from 61/61 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Zaglebie Lubin 29% | Draw 26% | Gornik Zabrze 44%, with Gornik Zabrze to win its most likely call at 44%. The actual Zaglebie Lubin win had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 47%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 72% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Zaglebie Lubin 44%, Gornik Zabrze 49%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Zaglebie Lubin's trading profile (61 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did.
Gornik Zabrze's trading profile (61 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Zaglebie Lubin 1.20 PPG, Gornik Zabrze 1.52 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Zaglebie Lubin win broke the near-deadlock. Zaglebie Lubin (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.03 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.