Zaglebie Lubin 1-0 GKS Katowice – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Zaglebie Lubin at 39% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Zaglebie Lubin face GKS Katowice.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Zaglebie Lubin host GKS Katowice at Stadion Zagłębia Lubin in Ekstraklasa (matchday 7). Kick-off is Saturday 31 August 2024 at 17:30 UK time.
Form Guide
Zaglebie Lubin — last 10 games: 4W 2D 4L, averaging 1.40 points per game. Last five: D W D L L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%).
In front of their own supporters, Zaglebie Lubin have posted 4W 3D 3L from their last 10 home games — 1.50 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from their last 10 home games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Looking at their last 6 matches, GKS Katowice stand at 2W 2D 2L — 1.33 PPG. Last five: W L D D W. Their scoring rate of 1.17 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 6 outings (33%).
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Zaglebie Lubin at 1.40 PPG versus GKS Katowice's 1.33. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
In-Play Profile
Zaglebie Lubin in-play tendencies (last 6 games): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 50% of their matches; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 17% of games; they fail to score in 50% of games.
GKS Katowice in-play tendencies (last 6 games): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 83% of their matches; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games; they fail to score in 33% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Zaglebie Lubin 33% versus GKS Katowice 50%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Zaglebie Lubin 17% | GKS Katowice 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Zaglebie Lubin 1.30 xG and GKS Katowice 1.09 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Zaglebie Lubin attack 0.920 / defence 1.008 | GKS Katowice attack 1.018 / defence 1.052. League average goals — home 1.342 / away 1.065. Data: built from Zaglebie Lubin's last 40 games and GKS Katowice's last 6.
Result probabilities: Zaglebie Lubin 39% | Draw 32% | GKS Katowice 29%. Fair-value odds: Zaglebie Lubin 2.58 | Draw 3.08 | GKS Katowice 3.47. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 32% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 43% | BTTS Yes probability 51% | Total xG 2.39. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 57% — total xG of 2.39 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS Yes at 51% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Zaglebie Lubin at 39% — marginal model lean. With a 32% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Zaglebie Lubin offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.39 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 57% — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Zaglebie Lubin's last 10 home games and GKS Katowice's last 6 games) averaging 2.1 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 51% on Yes. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Zaglebie Lubin 50% (last 10 home games) | GKS Katowice 50% (last 6 games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Zaglebie Lubin vs GKS Katowice | Competition: Ekstraklasa, matchday 7 | Venue: Stadion Zagłębia Lubin • Kick-off: Saturday 31 August 2024 at 17:30 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Zaglebie Lubin 39% | Draw 32% | GKS Katowice 29% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 43% (Under 57%) | BTTS Yes 51% (No 49%) | xG Zaglebie Lubin 1.30 / GKS Katowice 1.09 • Poisson strength factors: Zaglebie Lubin attack 0.920 / def 1.008 | GKS Katowice attack 1.018 / def 1.052 | league avg home 1.342 / away 1.065 • Poisson stance: Zaglebie Lubin (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.30
Zaglebie Lubin xG
Expected Goals
1.09
GKS Katowice xG
51%
BTTS
71%
Over 1.5
43%
Over 2.5
22%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Zaglebie Lubin vs GKS Katowice FAQs
What time does Zaglebie Lubin vs GKS Katowice kick off?
Zaglebie Lubin vs GKS Katowice kicked off at 17:30 UK time on Saturday 31 August 2024 at Stadion Zagłębia Lubin.
What was the final score in Zaglebie Lubin vs GKS Katowice?
Zaglebie Lubin 1 - 0 GKS Katowice.
Where is Zaglebie Lubin vs GKS Katowice being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Zagłębia Lubin.
What competition is Zaglebie Lubin vs GKS Katowice part of?
Zaglebie Lubin vs GKS Katowice is a Ekstraklasa fixture (matchday 7) (Poland).
Who is favourite to win Zaglebie Lubin vs GKS Katowice?
Our statistical model gives Zaglebie Lubin a 39% chance of winning, GKS Katowice a 29% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making Zaglebie Lubin the favourite.
Will both teams score in Zaglebie Lubin vs GKS Katowice?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both Zaglebie Lubin and GKS Katowice will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Zaglebie Lubin vs GKS Katowice have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 43%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (57%).
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Zaglebie Lubin's attack at 0.92x the league average against GKS Katowice's defence at 1.05x — combine the two and it projects 1.30 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, GKS Katowice's attack versus Zaglebie Lubin's defence, projects 1.09 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Zaglebie Lubin's last 40 games and GKS Katowice's last 6 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.7% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (10.8%), 1-0 (10.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Zaglebie Lubin Win
39%
2.58
32%
3.08
29%
3.47
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.0%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.9%
Home win
0 – 1
10.0%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.30
Zaglebie Lubin xG
Total xG
2.39
1.09
GKS Katowice xG
2.58
39%
Home win
3.08
32%
Draw
3.47
29%
Away win
Goals Markets
69%
Over 1.5
1.45
31%
Under 1.5
3.23
43%
Over 2.5
2.33
57%
Under 2.5
1.75
22%
Over 3.5
4.55
78%
Under 3.5
1.28
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.97
49%
BTTS No
2.03
Clean Sheet
34%
2.98
27%
3.66
Win to Nil
13%
7.70
8%
12.72
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.2 | 10.0 | 5.5 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.9 | 13.0 | 7.1 | 2.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.7 | 8.4 | 4.6 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.3 | 3.6 | 2.0 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.2 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Zaglebie Lubin vs GKS Katowice Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Zaglebie Lubin vs GKS Katowice?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.7%.
How many goals are Zaglebie Lubin and GKS Katowice expected to score?
The model projects 1.30 expected goals for Zaglebie Lubin and 1.09 for GKS Katowice, a combined total of 2.39.
How confident is the prediction model for Zaglebie Lubin vs GKS Katowice?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Zaglebie Lubin come into this having played 6 games, going 1W 2D 3L for 0.83 points per game. Their last five reads D-W-D-L-L.
On the other side, GKS Katowice sit at 1.33 PPG from 6 outings (2W 2D 2L), a run that reads W-L-D-D-W across their last five.
GKS Katowice carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.50 PPG clear of Zaglebie Lubin — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Goals in Recent Form
Zaglebie Lubin are averaging 0.67 goals scored and 1.17 conceded per game recently; GKS Katowice are on 1.17 scored and 1.00 conceded.
Last 6 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Zaglebie Lubin
Early Season
GKS Katowice
Early Season
Zaglebie Lubin (Home) vs GKS Katowice (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Zaglebie Lubin
Early Season
GKS Katowice
Early Season
❓ Zaglebie Lubin vs GKS Katowice Form FAQs
What form are Zaglebie Lubin and GKS Katowice in coming into this match?
Zaglebie Lubin have gone 1W 2D 3L in their last 6 games (0.83 PPG), while GKS Katowice have gone 2W 2D 2L in their last 6 (1.33 PPG).
Have Zaglebie Lubin or GKS Katowice been keeping clean sheets recently?
Zaglebie Lubin have kept a clean sheet in 17% of their recent games, GKS Katowice in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 5 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 2 years from August 2024. All of them came in Ekstraklasa. The most recent was as recently as 12 September 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Streaks & Records
Zaglebie Lubin's record when hosting GKS Katowice specifically: 2W 0D 1L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 5 Meetings
2
Zaglebie Lubin
1
Draws
2
GKS Katowice
Recent Meetings
❓ Zaglebie Lubin vs GKS Katowice H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Zaglebie Lubin and GKS Katowice?
Across the 5 head-to-head matches in our data, Zaglebie Lubin have won 2, GKS Katowice have won 2, and 1 has been drawn.
When did Zaglebie Lubin and GKS Katowice last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 12 September 2026: Zaglebie Lubin 2-1 GKS Katowice.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Zaglebie Lubin see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches.
GKS Katowice are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Zaglebie Lubin 33%, GKS Katowice 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 17% for Zaglebie Lubin and 50% for GKS Katowice.
On the defensive side: GKS Katowice in 33%; Zaglebie Lubin have failed to score in 50% of games; GKS Katowice in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Zaglebie Lubin home games / GKS Katowice away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Zaglebie Lubin vs GKS Katowice Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Zaglebie Lubin and GKS Katowice matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 33% of Zaglebie Lubin's recent matches and 50% of GKS Katowice's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Zaglebie Lubin and GKS Katowice matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 17% of Zaglebie Lubin's recent games and 50% of GKS Katowice's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Zaglebie Lubin and GKS Katowice matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 50% of Zaglebie Lubin's recent matches and 83% of GKS Katowice's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Zaglebie Lubin edge out GKS Katowice 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Zaglebie Lubin beat GKS Katowice 1-0 at Stadion Zagłębia Lubin, Regular Season - 7, in the Ekstraklasa. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Zaglebie Lubin 1.30 xG and GKS Katowice 1.09 xG, a combined 2.39. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. GKS Katowice landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Zaglebie Lubin attack 0.92 / defence 1.01 against GKS Katowice attack 1.02 / defence 1.05, drawn from 40/6 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Zaglebie Lubin 39% | Draw 32% | GKS Katowice 29%, with Zaglebie Lubin to win its most likely call at 39%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 43%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 71% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 33% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Zaglebie Lubin 17%, GKS Katowice 50%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 42%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Zaglebie Lubin's trading profile (6 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 33% of their matches — today it did not.
GKS Katowice's trading profile (6 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 33% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, GKS Katowice arrived the stronger side — 1.33 PPG against 0.83. Form was overturned, with Zaglebie Lubin winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Zaglebie Lubin conceded 0 against a 1.17 average — tighter than their form line. GKS Katowice managed 0 against a 1.17 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.