Wisla Plock 2-1 Korona Kielce – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Wisla Plock at 59%, yet other data sources diverge — this Wisla Plock vs Korona Kielce fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Ekstraklasa clash, Regular Season - 6 as Wisla Plock welcome Korona Kielce to Stadion im. Kazimierza Górskiego. Kick-off is set for Saturday 20 August 2022 at 14:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Ekstraklasa games this season, Wisla Plock have gone 6W 1D 3L from 10 outings — a 1.90 PPG return. Last five: W W W W D. They are averaging 2.30 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Wisla Plock have played only a handful of Ekstraklasa games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Wisla Plock's home record at Stadion im. Kazimierza Górskiego: 6W 0D 4L from 10 Ekstraklasa appearances (1.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Korona Kielce stand at 2W 1D 2L from 5 Ekstraklasa matches — 1.40 PPG. Last five: D L W W L. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 5 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Korona Kielce have played only a handful of Ekstraklasa games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
On current form, Wisla Plock have the edge — a 0.50 PPG advantage (1.90 vs 1.40) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
In-Play Data
Wisla Plock trading profile (5 games): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures; they lead at the break 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 100% of games; Over 3.5 in 80%; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time.
Korona Kielce trading profile (5 games): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 20% of games; they fail to score in 40% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Wisla Plock 60% versus Korona Kielce 40%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Wisla Plock 100% | Korona Kielce 20%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Wisla Plock 1.74 xG and Korona Kielce 0.85 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Wisla Plock attack 1.328 / defence 0.892 | Korona Kielce attack 0.772 / defence 1.027. League average goals — home 1.278 / away 1.229. Wisla Plock carry an above-average attack strength of 1.328 — their λ of 1.74 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 39 Wisla Plock games / 5 Korona Kielce games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Wisla Plock 59% | Draw 23% | Korona Kielce 18%. Fair-value odds: Wisla Plock 1.69 | Draw 4.35 | Korona Kielce 5.56. The model has a clear lean to Wisla Plock (59%) — a 41pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 48% | BTTS probability 47% | Total xG 2.59. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 48%/52% — the total xG of 2.59 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 47% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Wisla Plock as the most likely outcome at 59% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 23% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 2.59 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 48% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 47% on No. Form rates corroborate: Wisla Plock 40% | Korona Kielce 40% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Wisla Plock vs Korona Kielce | Competition: Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 6 | Venue: Stadion im. Kazimierza Górskiego • Kick-off: Saturday 20 Aug 2022, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Wisla Plock 59% | Draw 23% | Korona Kielce 18% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 48% | BTTS 47% | xG Wisla Plock 1.74 / Korona Kielce 0.85 • Poisson strength factors: Wisla Plock attack 1.328 / def 0.892 | Korona Kielce attack 0.772 / def 1.027 | league avg home 1.278 / away 1.229 • Poisson stance: Wisla Plock (59%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.74
Wisla Plock xG
Expected Goals
0.85
Korona Kielce xG
47%
BTTS
73%
Over 1.5
48%
Over 2.5
26%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Wisla Plock vs Korona Kielce kick off?
Wisla Plock vs Korona Kielce kicked off at 14:00 on Saturday 20 August 2022 at Stadion im. Kazimierza Górskiego.
What was the final score in Wisla Plock vs Korona Kielce?
Wisla Plock 2 - 1 Korona Kielce.
Where is Wisla Plock vs Korona Kielce being played?
The match is being played at Stadion im. Kazimierza Górskiego.
What competition is Wisla Plock vs Korona Kielce part of?
Wisla Plock vs Korona Kielce is a Regular Season - 6 fixture in the Ekstraklasa (Poland).
Who is favourite to win Wisla Plock vs Korona Kielce?
Our statistical model gives Wisla Plock a 59% chance of winning, Korona Kielce a 18% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Wisla Plock the favourite.
Will both teams score in Wisla Plock vs Korona Kielce?
Our model estimates a 47% probability that both Wisla Plock and Korona Kielce will score (BTTS).
Will Wisla Plock vs Korona Kielce have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 48%.
What is the head-to-head record between Wisla Plock and Korona Kielce?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Wisla Plock and Korona Kielce in?
Wisla Plock (all comps): 6W-1D-3L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 2.30 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-W-W-W-D. Korona Kielce (all comps): 2W-1D-2L in 5 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.00 | L5 D-L-W-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Wisla Plock's attack at 1.33x the league average against Korona Kielce's defence at 1.03x — combine the two and it projects 1.74 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Korona Kielce's attack versus Wisla Plock's defence, projects 0.85 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 39/5 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.5% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (11.7%), 2-0 (11.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Wisla Plock Win
59%
1.71
23%
4.27
18%
5.57
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.1%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
11.4%
Home win
1 – 1
11.1%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.74
Wisla Plock xG
Total xG
2.59
0.85
Korona Kielce xG
1.71
59%
Home win
4.27
23%
Draw
5.57
18%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
48%
Over 2.5
2.08
52%
Under 2.5
1.92
26%
Over 3.5
3.85
74%
Under 3.5
1.35
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
47%
BTTS Yes
2.12
53%
BTTS No
1.89
Clean Sheet
43%
2.33
18%
5.70
Win to Nil
25%
3.98
3%
31.75
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.5 | 6.4 | 2.7 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 13.1 | 11.1 | 4.7 | 1.3 | 0.3 | – |
| 2 | 11.4 | 9.6 | 4.1 | 1.2 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 6.6 | 5.6 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 2.9 | 2.4 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.0 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Wisla Plock vs Korona Kielce?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.5%.
How many goals are Wisla Plock and Korona Kielce expected to score?
The model projects 1.74 expected goals for Wisla Plock and 0.85 for Korona Kielce, a combined total of 2.59.
How confident is the prediction model for Wisla Plock vs Korona Kielce?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 59%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Wisla Plock's recent record stands at 4W 1D 0L from 5 games, a 2.60 PPG return, with W-W-W-W-D in the last five. It's still early in the season for Wisla Plock, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Korona Kielce, meanwhile, have gone 2W 1D 2L across 5 games — 1.40 PPG, with D-L-W-W-L in their last five. It's still early in the season for Korona Kielce, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
The points-per-game comparison favours Wisla Plock by 1.20 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Korona Kielce heading into this one.
The Goals Picture
Wisla Plock are averaging 3.20 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game recently; Korona Kielce are on 1.00 scored and 1.00 conceded. Wisla Plock's scoring rate against Korona Kielce's tighter defensive record is one of the more interesting match-ups in the goals markets here.
On BTTS specifically: Wisla Plock have seen both teams score in 60% of their recent games.
Defensively: Wisla Plock have kept a clean sheet in 40% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 5 Results — Ekstraklasa
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Wisla Plock
Early Season
Korona Kielce
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Wisla Plock and Korona Kielce in coming into this match?
Wisla Plock have gone 4W 1D 0L in their last 5 games (2.60 PPG), while Korona Kielce have gone 2W 1D 2L in their last 5 (1.40 PPG).
Have Wisla Plock or Korona Kielce been keeping clean sheets recently?
Wisla Plock have kept a clean sheet in 40% of their recent games, Korona Kielce in 20%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Wisla Plock and Korona Kielce runs to 4 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to August 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Ekstraklasa. They last met on 8 December 2025, roughly 8 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
Wisla Plock's record when hosting Korona Kielce specifically: 2W 0D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
2
Wisla Plock
1
Draws
1
Korona Kielce
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Wisla Plock and Korona Kielce?
From 4 meetings on record, Wisla Plock have won 2, Korona Kielce have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Wisla Plock and Korona Kielce last play each other?
They last met on 8 December 2025, when Korona Kielce 1-1 Wisla Plock.
Who has won more matches between Wisla Plock and Korona Kielce?
Wisla Plock have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Wisla Plock are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 80% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
Korona Kielce are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Wisla Plock 60%, Korona Kielce 40% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 100% for Wisla Plock and 20% for Korona Kielce. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 80% and 20% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Wisla Plock keep a clean sheet in 40% of their matches; Korona Kielce in 40%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Wisla Plock home games / Korona Kielce away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Wisla Plock play Korona Kielce?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 60% of Wisla Plock's recent matches and 40% of Korona Kielce's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Wisla Plock vs Korona Kielce usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 100% of Wisla Plock's matches and 20% of Korona Kielce's.
Do Wisla Plock and Korona Kielce tend to score early?
Wisla Plock have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, Korona Kielce in 80% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Wisla Plock edge out Korona Kielce 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Wisla Plock beat Korona Kielce 2-1 at Stadion im. Kazimierza Górskiego, Regular Season - 6, in the Ekstraklasa. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Wisla Plock 1.74 xG and Korona Kielce 0.85 xG, a combined 2.59. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Wisla Plock attack 1.33 / defence 0.89 against Korona Kielce attack 0.77 / defence 1.03, drawn from 39/5 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Wisla Plock 59% | Draw 23% | Korona Kielce 18%, with Wisla Plock to win its most likely call at 59%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 48%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 73% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 60% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Wisla Plock 100%, Korona Kielce 20%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Wisla Plock's trading profile (5 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time, and conceded here.
Korona Kielce's trading profile (5 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Wisla Plock arrived the stronger side — 2.60 PPG against 1.40. That form edge translated into the three points. Wisla Plock managed 2 against a 3.20 scoring average — below par going forward. Korona Kielce shipped 2 against a 1.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.