Wisla Krakow 3-0 Zaglebie Lubin – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model projects a closely fought contest — draw probability sits at 40% as Wisla Krakow take on Zaglebie Lubin.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Ekstraklasa encounter, Regular Season - 1 sees Zaglebie Lubin travel to Stadion Miejski im. Henryka Reymana to take on Wisla Krakow. The game is scheduled for Monday 26 July 2021, 17:00 UTC.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Wisla Krakow 0.87 xG and Zaglebie Lubin 0.98 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Wisla Krakow attack 0.850 / defence 1.150 | Zaglebie Lubin attack 0.850 / defence 1.150. League average goals — home 0.893 / away 1.005. Data: 0 Wisla Krakow games / 0 Zaglebie Lubin games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Wisla Krakow 27% | Draw 40% | Zaglebie Lubin 33%. Fair-value odds: Wisla Krakow 3.70 | Draw 2.50 | Zaglebie Lubin 3.03. The draw (40%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 28% | BTTS probability 40% | Total xG 1.86. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 72% probability — total xG of 1.86 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 40% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 40% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 27% and away win at 33% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
Poisson projects 1.86 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 28% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (0 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Wisla Krakow vs Zaglebie Lubin | Competition: Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 1 | Venue: Stadion Miejski im. Henryka Reymana • Kick-off: Monday 26 Jul 2021, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Wisla Krakow 27% | Draw 40% | Zaglebie Lubin 33% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 28% | BTTS 40% | xG Wisla Krakow 0.87 / Zaglebie Lubin 0.98 • Poisson strength factors: Wisla Krakow attack 0.850 / def 1.150 | Zaglebie Lubin attack 0.850 / def 1.150 | league avg home 0.893 / away 1.005 • Poisson stance: Draw (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.87
Wisla Krakow xG
Expected Goals
0.98
Zaglebie Lubin xG
40%
BTTS
59%
Over 1.5
28%
Over 2.5
12%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Wisla Krakow vs Zaglebie Lubin kick off?
Wisla Krakow vs Zaglebie Lubin kicked off at 17:00 on Monday 26 July 2021 at Stadion Miejski im. Henryka Reymana.
What was the final score in Wisla Krakow vs Zaglebie Lubin?
Wisla Krakow 3 - 0 Zaglebie Lubin.
Where is Wisla Krakow vs Zaglebie Lubin being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Miejski im. Henryka Reymana.
What competition is Wisla Krakow vs Zaglebie Lubin part of?
Wisla Krakow vs Zaglebie Lubin is a Regular Season - 1 fixture in the Ekstraklasa (Poland).
Who is favourite to win Wisla Krakow vs Zaglebie Lubin?
Our statistical model gives Wisla Krakow a 27% chance of winning, Zaglebie Lubin a 33% chance, and a 40% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in Wisla Krakow vs Zaglebie Lubin?
Our model estimates a 40% probability that both Wisla Krakow and Zaglebie Lubin will score (BTTS).
Will Wisla Krakow vs Zaglebie Lubin have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 28%.
What is the head-to-head record between Wisla Krakow and Zaglebie Lubin?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Wisla Krakow and Zaglebie Lubin in?
Form data is not yet available for either side.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Wisla Krakow's attack rating (0.85) and Zaglebie Lubin's defence rating (1.15), the model arrives at 0.87 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Zaglebie Lubin's attack versus Wisla Krakow's defence, projects 0.98 expected goals for the visitors.
The sample (0/0 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 0-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 17.4%. Close behind: 1-1 (15.2%), 0-1 (13.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 46% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Draw
27%
3.71
40%
2.48
33%
3.05
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 0
15.6%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
15.4%
Away win
1 – 0
13.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.87
Wisla Krakow xG
Total xG
1.86
0.98
Zaglebie Lubin xG
3.71
27%
Home win
2.48
40%
Draw
3.05
33%
Away win
Goals Markets
55%
Over 1.5
1.82
45%
Under 1.5
2.22
28%
Over 2.5
3.57
72%
Under 2.5
1.39
12%
Over 3.5
8.33
88%
Under 3.5
1.14
4%
Over 4.5
25.00
96%
Under 4.5
1.04
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
40%
BTTS Yes
2.47
60%
BTTS No
1.68
Clean Sheet
37%
2.67
42%
2.39
Win to Nil
10%
9.93
14%
7.29
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 15.6 | 15.4 | 7.6 | 2.5 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.6 | 13.4 | 6.6 | 2.2 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 6.0 | 5.9 | 2.9 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 1.7 | 1.7 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Wisla Krakow vs Zaglebie Lubin?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 17.4%.
How many goals are Wisla Krakow and Zaglebie Lubin expected to score?
The model projects 0.87 expected goals for Wisla Krakow and 0.98 for Zaglebie Lubin, a combined total of 1.86.
How confident is the prediction model for Wisla Krakow vs Zaglebie Lubin?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
Last 0 Results — Ekstraklasa
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Wisla Krakow
Pre-Season
Zaglebie Lubin
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
2 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to July 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Ekstraklasa. It has been a while since the last meeting — 11 December 2021, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
1
Wisla Krakow
0
Draws
1
Zaglebie Lubin
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Wisla Krakow and Zaglebie Lubin?
From 2 meetings on record, Wisla Krakow have won 1, Zaglebie Lubin have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Wisla Krakow and Zaglebie Lubin last play each other?
They last met on 11 December 2021, when Zaglebie Lubin 2-1 Wisla Krakow.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Wisla Krakow home games / Zaglebie Lubin away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
Dominant Wisla Krakow run riot with a 3-0 hammering of Zaglebie Lubin.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Wisla Krakow beat Zaglebie Lubin 3-0 at Stadion Miejski im. Henryka Reymana, Regular Season - 1, in the Ekstraklasa. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Wisla Krakow 0.87 xG and Zaglebie Lubin 0.98 xG, a combined 1.86. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. Wisla Krakow beat their projection by 2.1 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Zaglebie Lubin landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Wisla Krakow attack 0.85 / defence 1.15 against Zaglebie Lubin attack 0.85 / defence 1.15, drawn from 0/0 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Wisla Krakow 27% | Draw 40% | Zaglebie Lubin 33%, with the draw its most likely call at 40%. The actual Wisla Krakow win had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 28%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 59% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 40% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.