Wisla Krakow 2-1 Slask Wroclaw – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Wisla Krakow at 54% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Wisla Krakow vs Slask Wroclaw encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Wisla Krakow host Slask Wroclaw at Synerise Arena - Stadion Miejski im. Henryka Reymana in Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 9. Kick-off is scheduled for Friday 18 September 2026 at 18:30 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Wisla Krakow stand at 4W 2D 2L from 8 Ekstraklasa matches — 1.75 PPG. Last five: L D W D W. Offensively they are averaging 1.88 goals per game, with 1.38 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 8 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 75% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Wisla Krakow, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Wisla Krakow at Synerise Arena - Stadion Miejski im. Henryka Reymana this season: 4W 0D 0L from 4 home games — 3.00 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 2 clean sheets from 4 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Synerise Arena - Stadion Miejski im. Henryka Reymana. Their home PPG of 3.00 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.75 — Wisla Krakow are significantly better at Synerise Arena - Stadion Miejski im. Henryka Reymana than their overall form suggests.
Across all Ekstraklasa games this season, Slask Wroclaw have recorded 1W 3D 4L from 8 outings — 0.75 PPG. Last five: L D D L L. Their scoring rate of 1.25 per game is modest, conceding 1.62 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 8 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 88% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Slask Wroclaw, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Ekstraklasa this season, Slask Wroclaw have posted 0W 1D 3L from 4 away outings — 0.25 PPG. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.75 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 100% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 0.25 is notably below their overall 0.75 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
On current form, Wisla Krakow have the edge — a 1.00 PPG advantage (1.75 vs 0.75) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 0 wins apiece for Wisla Krakow, 1 for Slask Wroclaw and 1 shared spoils from 2 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 2 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.5 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 18 Apr 2022, ended 1–1 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.5 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
Wisla Krakow in-play and half-time data (8 games, 4 at home): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in home games; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games).
Slask Wroclaw in-play and half-time data (8 games, 4 at away): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures in away games; when winning at HT they fail to see it out 38% of the time; BTTS occurs in 100% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 75% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Wisla Krakow 75% and Slask Wroclaw 88% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Wisla Krakow 62% | Slask Wroclaw 75%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Wisla Krakow 1.68 xG and Slask Wroclaw 0.85 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Wisla Krakow attack 1.000 / defence 0.793 | Slask Wroclaw attack 0.867 / defence 1.114. League average goals — home 1.512 / away 1.243. Wisla Krakow's defence rating of 0.793 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 8 Wisla Krakow games / 8 Slask Wroclaw games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Wisla Krakow 54% | Draw 31% | Slask Wroclaw 15%. Fair-value odds: Wisla Krakow 1.85 | Draw 3.23 | Slask Wroclaw 6.67. Wisla Krakow hold a narrow Poisson edge at 54% — the draw (31%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 47% | BTTS probability 50% | Total xG 2.54. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 47%/53% — the total xG of 2.54 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 50% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Wisla Krakow at 54% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 31% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Wisla Krakow offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.54 combined xG gives a 47% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 50% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Wisla Krakow 50% | Slask Wroclaw 100% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Wisla Krakow vs Slask Wroclaw | Competition: Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 9 | Venue: Synerise Arena - Stadion Miejski im. Henryka Reymana • Kick-off: Friday 18 Sep 2026, 18:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Wisla Krakow 54% | Draw 31% | Slask Wroclaw 15% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 47% | BTTS 50% | xG Wisla Krakow 1.68 / Slask Wroclaw 0.85 • Poisson strength factors: Wisla Krakow attack 1.000 / def 0.793 | Slask Wroclaw attack 0.867 / def 1.114 | league avg home 1.512 / away 1.243 • Poisson stance: Wisla Krakow (54%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.68
Wisla Krakow xG
Expected Goals
0.85
Slask Wroclaw xG
50%
BTTS
75%
Over 1.5
47%
Over 2.5
25%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Wisla Krakow vs Slask Wroclaw kick off?
Wisla Krakow vs Slask Wroclaw kicked off at 18:30 on Friday 18 September 2026 at Synerise Arena - Stadion Miejski im. Henryka Reymana.
What was the final score in Wisla Krakow vs Slask Wroclaw?
Wisla Krakow 2 - 1 Slask Wroclaw.
Where is Wisla Krakow vs Slask Wroclaw being played?
The match is being played at Synerise Arena - Stadion Miejski im. Henryka Reymana.
What competition is Wisla Krakow vs Slask Wroclaw part of?
Wisla Krakow vs Slask Wroclaw is a Regular Season - 9 fixture in the Ekstraklasa (Poland).
Who is favourite to win Wisla Krakow vs Slask Wroclaw?
Our statistical model gives Wisla Krakow a 54% chance of winning, Slask Wroclaw a 15% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Wisla Krakow the favourite.
Will both teams score in Wisla Krakow vs Slask Wroclaw?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both Wisla Krakow and Slask Wroclaw will score (BTTS).
Will Wisla Krakow vs Slask Wroclaw have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 47%.
What is the head-to-head record between Wisla Krakow and Slask Wroclaw?
Record (2 meetings): Wisla Krakow 0W | Draws 1 | Slask Wroclaw 1W.
What form are Wisla Krakow and Slask Wroclaw in?
Wisla Krakow (all comps): 4W-2D-2L in 8 | 1.75 PPG | GF 1.88 / GA 1.38 | L5 L-D-W-D-W. Slask Wroclaw (all comps): 1W-3D-4L in 8 | 0.75 PPG | GF 1.25 / GA 1.62 | L5 L-D-D-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Wisla Krakow's attacking strength (1.00x league average) is weighed against Slask Wroclaw's defensive record (1.11x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.68. The same calculation in reverse, Slask Wroclaw's attack versus Wisla Krakow's defence, projects 0.85 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 8/8 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.8%. Close behind: 1-0 (11.8%), 2-0 (11.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Wisla Krakow Win
54%
1.86
31%
3.24
15%
6.46
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.3%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.4%
Draw
2 – 0
11.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.68
Wisla Krakow xG
Total xG
2.54
0.85
Slask Wroclaw xG
1.86
54%
Home win
3.24
31%
Draw
6.46
15%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
47%
Over 2.5
2.13
53%
Under 2.5
1.89
25%
Over 3.5
4.00
75%
Under 3.5
1.33
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
1.99
50%
BTTS No
2.01
Clean Sheet
43%
2.35
19%
5.39
Win to Nil
23%
4.39
3%
34.78
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.9 | 6.7 | 2.9 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 13.3 | 11.4 | 4.9 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 11.2 | 9.6 | 4.1 | 1.2 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 6.3 | 5.4 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 2.6 | 2.3 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.9 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Wisla Krakow vs Slask Wroclaw?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.8%.
How many goals are Wisla Krakow and Slask Wroclaw expected to score?
The model projects 1.68 expected goals for Wisla Krakow and 0.85 for Slask Wroclaw, a combined total of 2.54.
How confident is the prediction model for Wisla Krakow vs Slask Wroclaw?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 54%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Wisla Krakow come into this having played 8 games, going 4W 2D 2L for 1.75 points per game. Their last five reads L-D-W-D-W. The sample for Wisla Krakow is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Slask Wroclaw sit at 0.75 PPG from 8 outings (1W 3D 4L), a run that reads L-D-D-L-L across their last five. The sample for Slask Wroclaw is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Wisla Krakow carry the stronger recent form of the two, 1.00 PPG clear of Slask Wroclaw — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
Wisla Krakow's home form reads 4W 0D 0L across 4 games on their own ground, a 3.00 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.75 PPG overall — Wisla Krakow are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Slask Wroclaw have taken 0.25 points per game from 4 outings (0W 1D 3L). That's a step down from their 0.75 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Slask Wroclaw's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Wisla Krakow come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Wisla Krakow are averaging 1.88 goals scored and 1.38 conceded per game recently; Slask Wroclaw are on 1.25 scored and 1.62 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Wisla Krakow have seen both teams score in 75% of their recent games; Slask Wroclaw in 88%.
Last 8 Results — Ekstraklasa
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Wisla Krakow
Blended
Slask Wroclaw
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Wisla Krakow and Slask Wroclaw in coming into this match?
Wisla Krakow have gone 4W 2D 2L in their last 8 games (1.75 PPG), while Slask Wroclaw have gone 1W 3D 4L in their last 8 (0.75 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Wisla Krakow at home or Slask Wroclaw away?
Wisla Krakow's home record (3.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Wisla Krakow at home: 3.00 PPG; Slask Wroclaw away: 0.25 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
3 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Ekstraklasa. The two were last together as recently as 18 September 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 23 Oct 2021, when Slask Wroclaw won 0-5 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Wisla Krakow's record when hosting Slask Wroclaw specifically: 1W 0D 1L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 3 Meetings
1
Wisla Krakow
1
Draws
1
Slask Wroclaw
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Wisla Krakow and Slask Wroclaw?
From 3 meetings on record, Wisla Krakow have won 1, Slask Wroclaw have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Wisla Krakow and Slask Wroclaw last play each other?
They last met on 18 September 2026, when Wisla Krakow 2-1 Slask Wroclaw.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Wisla Krakow see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time.
Slask Wroclaw are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 75% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 75% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Trends
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Wisla Krakow at 50%, Slask Wroclaw at 100%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 50% for Wisla Krakow and 75% for Slask Wroclaw. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 0% and 0% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Wisla Krakow keep a clean sheet in 50% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Wisla Krakow home games / Slask Wroclaw away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Wisla Krakow play Slask Wroclaw?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 50% of Wisla Krakow's games and 100% of Slask Wroclaw's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Wisla Krakow vs Slask Wroclaw usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 50% of Wisla Krakow's matches and 75% of Slask Wroclaw's.
Do Wisla Krakow and Slask Wroclaw tend to score early?
Wisla Krakow have had a goal before half-time in 50% of their recent matches, Slask Wroclaw in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Wisla Krakow edge out Slask Wroclaw 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Wisla Krakow beat Slask Wroclaw 2-1 at Synerise Arena - Stadion Miejski im. Henryka Reymana, Regular Season - 9, in the Ekstraklasa. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Wisla Krakow 1.68 xG and Slask Wroclaw 0.85 xG, a combined 2.54. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Wisla Krakow attack 1.00 / defence 0.79 against Slask Wroclaw attack 0.87 / defence 1.11, drawn from 8/8 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Wisla Krakow 54% | Draw 31% | Slask Wroclaw 15%, with Wisla Krakow to win its most likely call at 54%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 47%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 75% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 69% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Wisla Krakow 62%, Slask Wroclaw 75%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 81%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Wisla Krakow's trading profile (8 games, 4 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 75% of their matches — today it did.
Slask Wroclaw's trading profile (8 games, 4 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 88% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Wisla Krakow arrived the stronger side — 1.75 PPG against 0.75. That form edge translated into the three points.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.