Wieczysta Kraków vs Motor Lublin – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model rates Wieczysta Kraków at 39%, yet other data sources diverge — this Wieczysta Kraków vs Motor Lublin fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Ekstraklasa encounter, Regular Season - 15 sees Motor Lublin travel to Synerise Arena - Stadion Miejski im. Henryka Reymana to take on Wieczysta Kraków. The game is scheduled for Saturday 21 November 2026, 17:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Wieczysta Kraków stand at 2W 2D 6L from 10 Ekstraklasa matches — 0.80 PPG. Last five: L D W L L. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.90 conceded. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Wieczysta Kraków, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Wieczysta Kraków have posted 1W 1D 2L at Synerise Arena - Stadion Miejski im. Henryka Reymana — 1.00 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.25 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 75% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Across all Ekstraklasa games this season, Motor Lublin have recorded 3W 2D 5L from 10 outings — 1.10 PPG. Last five: L L D W W. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Motor Lublin, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Motor Lublin's away record: 2W 3D 5L from 10 road trips in Ekstraklasa this season (0.90 PPG). Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Wieczysta Kraków 0.80 PPG, Motor Lublin 1.10 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
Both teams score in over 70% of each side's relevant games (using home/away splits). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.
In-Play Data
Wieczysta Kraków trading profile (11 games, 4 at home): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 100% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 75% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 75% of games (home games).
Motor Lublin trading profile (11 games, 4 at away): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; when trailing at the break they recover to draw or win in 27% of cases; BTTS occurs in 100% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 75% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 46%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Wieczysta Kraków 73% and Motor Lublin 73% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Wieczysta Kraków 73% | Motor Lublin 64%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Wieczysta Kraków 1.69 xG and Motor Lublin 1.48 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Wieczysta Kraków attack 0.917 / defence 1.033 | Motor Lublin attack 1.078 / defence 1.195. League average goals — home 1.539 / away 1.332. Data: 11 Wieczysta Kraków games / 45 Motor Lublin games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Wieczysta Kraków 39% | Draw 30% | Motor Lublin 31%. Fair-value odds: Wieczysta Kraków 2.56 | Draw 3.33 | Motor Lublin 3.23. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 61% | BTTS probability 66% | Total xG 3.17. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 61% — the 3.17 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 66% reflects that both xG figures (1.69 / 1.48) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Wieczysta Kraków as the most likely outcome at 39% — marginal model lean. With a 30% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Wieczysta Kraków offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.17 combined xG gives a 61% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.1 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 66% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Wieczysta Kraków 75% | Motor Lublin 70% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Wieczysta Kraków vs Motor Lublin | Competition: Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 15 | Venue: Synerise Arena - Stadion Miejski im. Henryka Reymana • Kick-off: Saturday 21 Nov 2026, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Wieczysta Kraków 39% | Draw 30% | Motor Lublin 31% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 61% | BTTS 66% | xG Wieczysta Kraków 1.69 / Motor Lublin 1.48 • Poisson strength factors: Wieczysta Kraków attack 0.917 / def 1.033 | Motor Lublin attack 1.078 / def 1.195 | league avg home 1.539 / away 1.332 • Poisson stance: Wieczysta Kraków (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.69
Wieczysta Kraków xG
Expected Goals
1.48
Motor Lublin xG
66%
BTTS
86%
Over 1.5
61%
Over 2.5
39%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Wieczysta Kraków vs Motor Lublin kick off?
Wieczysta Kraków vs Motor Lublin is scheduled to kick off at 17:00 on Saturday 21 November 2026 at Synerise Arena - Stadion Miejski im. Henryka Reymana.
Where is Wieczysta Kraków vs Motor Lublin being played?
The match is being played at Synerise Arena - Stadion Miejski im. Henryka Reymana.
What competition is Wieczysta Kraków vs Motor Lublin part of?
Wieczysta Kraków vs Motor Lublin is a Regular Season - 15 fixture in the Ekstraklasa (Poland).
Who is favourite to win Wieczysta Kraków vs Motor Lublin?
Our statistical model gives Wieczysta Kraków a 39% chance of winning, Motor Lublin a 31% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Wieczysta Kraków the favourite.
Will both teams score in Wieczysta Kraków vs Motor Lublin?
Our model estimates a 66% probability that both Wieczysta Kraków and Motor Lublin will score (BTTS).
Will Wieczysta Kraków vs Motor Lublin have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 61%.
What is the head-to-head record between Wieczysta Kraków and Motor Lublin?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Wieczysta Kraków and Motor Lublin in?
Wieczysta Kraków (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.90 | L5 L-D-W-L-L. Motor Lublin (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-L-D-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Wieczysta Kraków's attack rating (0.92) and Motor Lublin's defence rating (1.20), the model arrives at 1.69 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Motor Lublin's attack versus Wieczysta Kraków's defence, projects 1.48 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 11/45 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 11.9%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.9%), 1-2 (7.8%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Wieczysta Kraków Win
39%
2.53
30%
3.36
31%
3.25
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.5%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
8.9%
Home win
1 – 2
7.8%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.69
Wieczysta Kraków xG
Total xG
3.17
1.48
Motor Lublin xG
2.53
39%
Home win
3.36
30%
Draw
3.25
31%
Away win
Goals Markets
82%
Over 1.5
1.22
18%
Under 1.5
5.56
61%
Over 2.5
1.64
39%
Under 2.5
2.56
39%
Over 3.5
2.56
61%
Under 3.5
1.64
21%
Over 4.5
4.76
79%
Under 4.5
1.27
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
66%
BTTS Yes
1.51
34%
BTTS No
2.95
Clean Sheet
23%
4.41
19%
5.40
Win to Nil
9%
11.16
6%
17.53
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.2 | 6.2 | 4.6 | 2.3 | 0.8 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 7.1 | 10.5 | 7.8 | 3.9 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 6.0 | 8.9 | 6.6 | 3.2 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 3.4 | 5.0 | 3.7 | 1.8 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.4 | 2.1 | 1.6 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Wieczysta Kraków vs Motor Lublin?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.9%.
How many goals are Wieczysta Kraków and Motor Lublin expected to score?
The model projects 1.69 expected goals for Wieczysta Kraków and 1.48 for Motor Lublin, a combined total of 3.17.
How confident is the prediction model for Wieczysta Kraków vs Motor Lublin?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Wieczysta Kraków's recent record stands at 2W 2D 7L from 11 games, a 0.73 PPG return, with L-D-W-L-L in the last five. The sample for Wieczysta Kraków is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Motor Lublin, meanwhile, have gone 3W 3D 5L across 11 games — 1.09 PPG, with L-L-D-W-W in their last five. The sample for Motor Lublin is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Wieczysta Kraków on 0.73 PPG, Motor Lublin on 1.09. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Wieczysta Kraków have managed 1W 1D 2L from 4 games — 1.00 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Motor Lublin's away record stands at 1W 1D 2L across 4 trips, a 1.00 PPG haul.
Goals in Recent Form
Wieczysta Kraków are averaging 1.45 goals scored and 1.91 conceded per game recently; Motor Lublin are on 1.36 scored and 1.73 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Wieczysta Kraków have seen both teams score in 73% of their recent games; Motor Lublin in 73%.
Last 11 Results — Ekstraklasa
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Wieczysta Kraków
Blended
Motor Lublin
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Wieczysta Kraków and Motor Lublin in coming into this match?
Wieczysta Kraków have gone 2W 2D 7L in their last 11 games (0.73 PPG), while Motor Lublin have gone 3W 3D 5L in their last 11 (1.09 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Wieczysta Kraków at home or Motor Lublin away?
Wieczysta Kraków's home record (1.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Wieczysta Kraków at home: 1.00 PPG; Motor Lublin away: 1.00 PPG.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Wieczysta Kraków see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
Motor Lublin are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Wieczysta Kraków at 75%, Motor Lublin at 100%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 75% for Wieczysta Kraków and 75% for Motor Lublin. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 0% and 50% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Wieczysta Kraków home games / Motor Lublin away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Wieczysta Kraków play Motor Lublin?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 75% of Wieczysta Kraków's games and 100% of Motor Lublin's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Wieczysta Kraków vs Motor Lublin usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 75% of Wieczysta Kraków's matches and 75% of Motor Lublin's.
Do Wieczysta Kraków and Motor Lublin tend to score early?
Wieczysta Kraków have had a goal before half-time in 50% of their recent matches, Motor Lublin in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.