Widzew Łódź 3-0 Zaglebie Lubin – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Widzew Łódź at 39%, yet other data sources diverge — this Widzew Łódź vs Zaglebie Lubin fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Ekstraklasa encounter, Regular Season - 13 sees Zaglebie Lubin travel to Stadion Miejski Widzewa Łódź to take on Widzew Łódź. The game is scheduled for Sunday 16 October 2022, 14:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Ekstraklasa games this season, Widzew Łódź have gone 5W 2D 3L from 10 outings — a 1.70 PPG return. Last five: L W W D W. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 0.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. This season is still relatively young for Widzew Łódź, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Widzew Łódź's home record at Stadion Miejski Widzewa Łódź: 2W 1D 2L from 5 Ekstraklasa appearances (1.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. 2 home clean sheets from 5 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Zaglebie Lubin — All Games: 4W 4D 2L from 10 Ekstraklasa fixtures this season — 1.60 PPG. Last five: D D W W D. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Zaglebie Lubin, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Zaglebie Lubin have gone 4W 1D 5L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.30 PPG). Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.70 PPG (Widzew Łódź) versus 1.60 (Zaglebie Lubin). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
Trading Patterns
Widzew Łódź in-play and half-time data (12 games, 5 at home): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time.
Zaglebie Lubin in-play and half-time data (12 games, 5 at away): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (away games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Widzew Łódź 42% versus Zaglebie Lubin 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Widzew Łódź 50% | Zaglebie Lubin 33%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Widzew Łódź 1.34 xG and Zaglebie Lubin 1.26 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Widzew Łódź attack 0.923 / defence 1.023 | Zaglebie Lubin attack 1.063 / defence 1.098. League average goals — home 1.319 / away 1.160. Data: 12 Widzew Łódź games / 46 Zaglebie Lubin games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Widzew Łódź 39% | Draw 26% | Zaglebie Lubin 35%. Fair-value odds: Widzew Łódź 2.56 | Draw 3.85 | Zaglebie Lubin 2.86. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 48% | BTTS probability 53% | Total xG 2.60. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 48%/52% — the total xG of 2.60 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 53% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Widzew Łódź as the most likely outcome at 39% — marginal model lean. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Widzew Łódź offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.60 combined xG gives a 48% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 53% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Widzew Łódź 60% | Zaglebie Lubin 50% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Widzew Łódź vs Zaglebie Lubin | Competition: Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 13 | Venue: Stadion Miejski Widzewa Łódź • Kick-off: Sunday 16 Oct 2022, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Widzew Łódź 39% | Draw 26% | Zaglebie Lubin 35% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 48% | BTTS 53% | xG Widzew Łódź 1.34 / Zaglebie Lubin 1.26 • Poisson strength factors: Widzew Łódź attack 0.923 / def 1.023 | Zaglebie Lubin attack 1.063 / def 1.098 | league avg home 1.319 / away 1.160 • Poisson stance: Widzew Łódź (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.34
Widzew Łódź xG
Expected Goals
1.26
Zaglebie Lubin xG
53%
BTTS
73%
Over 1.5
48%
Over 2.5
26%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Widzew Łódź vs Zaglebie Lubin kick off?
Widzew Łódź vs Zaglebie Lubin kicked off at 14:00 on Sunday 16 October 2022 at Stadion Miejski Widzewa Łódź.
What was the final score in Widzew Łódź vs Zaglebie Lubin?
Widzew Łódź 3 - 0 Zaglebie Lubin.
Where is Widzew Łódź vs Zaglebie Lubin being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Miejski Widzewa Łódź.
What competition is Widzew Łódź vs Zaglebie Lubin part of?
Widzew Łódź vs Zaglebie Lubin is a Regular Season - 13 fixture in the Ekstraklasa (Poland).
Who is favourite to win Widzew Łódź vs Zaglebie Lubin?
Our statistical model gives Widzew Łódź a 39% chance of winning, Zaglebie Lubin a 35% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Widzew Łódź the favourite.
Will both teams score in Widzew Łódź vs Zaglebie Lubin?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both Widzew Łódź and Zaglebie Lubin will score (BTTS).
Will Widzew Łódź vs Zaglebie Lubin have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 48%.
What is the head-to-head record between Widzew Łódź and Zaglebie Lubin?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Widzew Łódź and Zaglebie Lubin in?
Widzew Łódź (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 0.90 | L5 L-W-W-D-W. Zaglebie Lubin (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.20 | L5 D-D-W-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Widzew Łódź's attack rating (0.92) and Zaglebie Lubin's defence rating (1.10), the model arrives at 1.34 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Zaglebie Lubin's attack versus Widzew Łódź's defence, projects 1.26 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 12/46 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.2%. Close behind: 0-0 (9.1%), 2-1 (8.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Widzew Łódź Win
39%
2.59
26%
3.79
35%
2.85
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.5%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.0%
Home win
0 – 1
9.4%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.34
Widzew Łódź xG
Total xG
2.60
1.26
Zaglebie Lubin xG
2.59
39%
Home win
3.79
26%
Draw
2.85
35%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
48%
Over 2.5
2.08
52%
Under 2.5
1.92
26%
Over 3.5
3.85
74%
Under 3.5
1.35
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.89
47%
BTTS No
2.12
Clean Sheet
28%
3.53
26%
3.81
Win to Nil
11%
9.15
9%
10.86
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.4 | 9.4 | 5.9 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 10.0 | 12.5 | 7.9 | 3.3 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.7 | 8.4 | 5.3 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.0 | 3.7 | 2.4 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.2 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Widzew Łódź vs Zaglebie Lubin?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.2%.
How many goals are Widzew Łódź and Zaglebie Lubin expected to score?
The model projects 1.34 expected goals for Widzew Łódź and 1.26 for Zaglebie Lubin, a combined total of 2.60.
How confident is the prediction model for Widzew Łódź vs Zaglebie Lubin?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Widzew Łódź's recent record stands at 6W 2D 4L from 12 games, a 1.67 PPG return, with L-W-W-D-W in the last five. The sample for Widzew Łódź is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Zaglebie Lubin, meanwhile, have gone 4W 5D 3L across 12 games — 1.42 PPG, with D-D-W-W-D in their last five. The sample for Zaglebie Lubin is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Widzew Łódź on 1.67 PPG, Zaglebie Lubin on 1.42. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Widzew Łódź have managed 2W 1D 2L from 5 games — 1.40 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Zaglebie Lubin's away record stands at 3W 1D 1L across 5 trips, a 2.00 PPG haul. That's actually stronger than their 1.42 PPG overall record — Zaglebie Lubin travel well.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Zaglebie Lubin come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Widzew Łódź are averaging 1.33 goals scored and 0.92 conceded per game recently; Zaglebie Lubin are on 1.00 scored and 1.17 conceded.
Defensively: Widzew Łódź have kept a clean sheet in 50% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 12 Results — Ekstraklasa
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Widzew Łódź
Blended
Zaglebie Lubin
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Widzew Łódź and Zaglebie Lubin in coming into this match?
Widzew Łódź have gone 6W 2D 4L in their last 12 games (1.67 PPG), while Zaglebie Lubin have gone 4W 5D 3L in their last 12 (1.42 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Widzew Łódź at home or Zaglebie Lubin away?
Zaglebie Lubin's away record (2.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Widzew Łódź at home: 1.40 PPG; Zaglebie Lubin away: 2.00 PPG.
Have Widzew Łódź or Zaglebie Lubin been keeping clean sheets recently?
Widzew Łódź have kept a clean sheet in 50% of their recent games, Zaglebie Lubin in 25%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
8 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Ekstraklasa. They last met on 6 December 2025, roughly 8 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 16 Oct 2022, when Widzew Łódź won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Widzew Łódź's record when hosting Zaglebie Lubin specifically: 3W 0D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
3
Widzew Łódź
1
Draws
4
Zaglebie Lubin
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Widzew Łódź and Zaglebie Lubin?
From 8 meetings on record, Widzew Łódź have won 3, Zaglebie Lubin have won 4, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Widzew Łódź and Zaglebie Lubin last play each other?
They last met on 6 December 2025, when Zaglebie Lubin 2-1 Widzew Łódź.
Who has won more matches between Widzew Łódź and Zaglebie Lubin?
Zaglebie Lubin have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Widzew Łódź are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time.
Zaglebie Lubin are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Widzew Łódź 60%, Zaglebie Lubin 40% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 60% for Widzew Łódź and 60% for Zaglebie Lubin. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 20% and 40% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Widzew Łódź keep a clean sheet in 40% of their matches; Zaglebie Lubin in 40%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Widzew Łódź home games / Zaglebie Lubin away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Widzew Łódź play Zaglebie Lubin?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 60% of Widzew Łódź's recent matches and 40% of Zaglebie Lubin's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Widzew Łódź vs Zaglebie Lubin usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 60% of Widzew Łódź's matches and 60% of Zaglebie Lubin's.
Do Widzew Łódź and Zaglebie Lubin tend to score early?
Widzew Łódź have had a goal before half-time in 80% of their recent matches, Zaglebie Lubin in 60% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Widzew Łódź run riot with a 3-0 hammering of Zaglebie Lubin.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Widzew Łódź beat Zaglebie Lubin 3-0 at Stadion Miejski Widzewa Łódź, Regular Season - 13, in the Ekstraklasa. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Widzew Łódź 1.34 xG and Zaglebie Lubin 1.26 xG, a combined 2.60. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. Widzew Łódź beat their projection by 1.7 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Zaglebie Lubin landed 1.3 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Widzew Łódź attack 0.92 / defence 1.02 against Zaglebie Lubin attack 1.06 / defence 1.10, drawn from 12/46 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Widzew Łódź 39% | Draw 26% | Zaglebie Lubin 35%, with Widzew Łódź to win its most likely call at 39%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 48%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 73% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 42% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Widzew Łódź 50%, Zaglebie Lubin 33%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 46%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Widzew Łódź's trading profile (12 games, 5 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time, and duly kept one.
Zaglebie Lubin's trading profile (12 games, 5 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 33% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Widzew Łódź 1.67 PPG, Zaglebie Lubin 1.42 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Widzew Łódź win broke the near-deadlock. Widzew Łódź (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.40 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.20 average — tighter than their form line. Zaglebie Lubin (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.40 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.40 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.