Widzew Łódź 1-3 Zaglebie Lubin – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Widzew Łódź at 42% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Widzew Łódź face Zaglebie Lubin.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
Zaglebie Lubin travel to Stadion Miejski Widzewa Łódź to take on Widzew Łódź in Ekstraklasa (matchday 32). The game is scheduled for Sunday 12 May 2024 at 15:00 UK time.
Recent Form
Across their last 10 games, Widzew Łódź have gone 5W 2D 3L — a 1.70 PPG return. Last five: W D W L L. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.10 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Widzew Łódź's home record over their last 10 home games: 5W 0D 5L (1.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game.
Zaglebie Lubin — last 10 games: 4W 3D 3L — 1.50 PPG. Last five: L L L W W. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.
On the road, Zaglebie Lubin have gone 3W 3D 4L in their last 10 away fixtures (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.70 PPG (Widzew Łódź) versus 1.50 (Zaglebie Lubin). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
H2H
There is little to separate the sides in our head-to-head data. From 3 H2H matches, Widzew Łódź have won 1, Zaglebie Lubin 1, with 1 draw — a balanced record that offers no clear steer on its own. With only 3 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
The 3 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.3 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 11 Nov 2023, ended Widzew Łódź 1–1 Zaglebie Lubin — a draw.
The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
Widzew Łódź in-play and half-time data (last 65 games, 32 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 75% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (home games).
Zaglebie Lubin in-play and half-time data (last 65 games, 32 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 81% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; of the 19 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 37%; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (away games); they fail to score in 31% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Widzew Łódź 52% versus Zaglebie Lubin 46%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Widzew Łódź 49% | Zaglebie Lubin 45%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Widzew Łódź 1.53 xG and Zaglebie Lubin 1.28 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Widzew Łódź attack 0.899 / defence 0.967 | Zaglebie Lubin attack 1.177 / defence 1.108. League average goals — home 1.537 / away 1.127. Data: built from Widzew Łódź's last 65 games and Zaglebie Lubin's last 65.
Result probabilities: Widzew Łódź 42% | Draw 28% | Zaglebie Lubin 30%. Fair-value odds: Widzew Łódź 2.40 | Draw 3.58 | Zaglebie Lubin 3.29. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 53% | BTTS Yes probability 58% | Total xG 2.81. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 53%/47% — the total xG of 2.81 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 58% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Widzew Łódź as the most likely outcome at 42% — marginal model lean. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Widzew Łódź offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.81 combined xG gives a 53% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Widzew Łódź's last 10 home games and Zaglebie Lubin's last 10 away games) averaging 2.9 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 58% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Widzew Łódź 50% (last 10 home games) | Zaglebie Lubin 40% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Widzew Łódź vs Zaglebie Lubin | Competition: Ekstraklasa, matchday 32 | Venue: Stadion Miejski Widzewa Łódź • Kick-off: Sunday 12 May 2024 at 15:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Widzew Łódź 42% | Draw 28% | Zaglebie Lubin 30% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 53% (Under 47%) | BTTS Yes 58% (No 42%) | xG Widzew Łódź 1.53 / Zaglebie Lubin 1.28 • Poisson strength factors: Widzew Łódź attack 0.899 / def 0.967 | Zaglebie Lubin attack 1.177 / def 1.108 | league avg home 1.537 / away 1.127 • Poisson stance: Widzew Łódź (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.53
Widzew Łódź xG
Expected Goals
1.28
Zaglebie Lubin xG
58%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
53%
Over 2.5
31%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Widzew Łódź vs Zaglebie Lubin FAQs
What time does Widzew Łódź vs Zaglebie Lubin kick off?
Widzew Łódź vs Zaglebie Lubin kicked off at 15:00 UK time on Sunday 12 May 2024 at Stadion Miejski Widzewa Łódź.
What was the final score in Widzew Łódź vs Zaglebie Lubin?
Widzew Łódź 1 - 3 Zaglebie Lubin.
Where is Widzew Łódź vs Zaglebie Lubin being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Miejski Widzewa Łódź.
What competition is Widzew Łódź vs Zaglebie Lubin part of?
Widzew Łódź vs Zaglebie Lubin is a Ekstraklasa fixture (matchday 32) (Poland).
Who is favourite to win Widzew Łódź vs Zaglebie Lubin?
Our statistical model gives Widzew Łódź a 42% chance of winning, Zaglebie Lubin a 30% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Widzew Łódź the favourite.
Will both teams score in Widzew Łódź vs Zaglebie Lubin?
Our model estimates a 58% probability that both Widzew Łódź and Zaglebie Lubin will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Widzew Łódź vs Zaglebie Lubin have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 53%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Widzew Łódź's attack rating (0.90) and Zaglebie Lubin's defence rating (1.11), the model arrives at 1.53 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Zaglebie Lubin's attack versus Widzew Łódź's defence, projects 1.28 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Widzew Łódź's last 65 games and Zaglebie Lubin's last 65 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.3%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.0%), 1-0 (7.7%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Widzew Łódź Win
42%
2.40
28%
3.58
30%
3.29
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.8%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
9.2%
Home win
2 – 1
9.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.53
Widzew Łódź xG
Total xG
2.81
1.28
Zaglebie Lubin xG
2.40
42%
Home win
3.58
28%
Draw
3.29
30%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
53%
Over 2.5
1.89
47%
Under 2.5
2.13
31%
Over 3.5
3.23
69%
Under 3.5
1.45
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
58%
BTTS Yes
1.72
42%
BTTS No
2.39
Clean Sheet
28%
3.60
22%
4.62
Win to Nil
12%
8.66
7%
15.18
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.0 | 7.7 | 4.9 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 9.2 | 11.8 | 7.6 | 3.2 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 7.0 | 9.0 | 5.8 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.6 | 4.6 | 2.9 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.4 | 1.8 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Widzew Łódź vs Zaglebie Lubin Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Widzew Łódź vs Zaglebie Lubin?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.3%.
How many goals are Widzew Łódź and Zaglebie Lubin expected to score?
The model projects 1.53 expected goals for Widzew Łódź and 1.28 for Zaglebie Lubin, a combined total of 2.81.
How confident is the prediction model for Widzew Łódź vs Zaglebie Lubin?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Widzew Łódź's recent record stands at 23W 14D 28L from 65 games, a 1.28 PPG return, with W-D-W-L-L in the last five.
Zaglebie Lubin, meanwhile, have gone 23W 17D 25L across 65 games — 1.32 PPG, with L-L-L-W-W in their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Widzew Łódź on 1.28 PPG, Zaglebie Lubin on 1.32. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Widzew Łódź have managed 14W 3D 15L from their last 32 home games — 1.41 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Zaglebie Lubin's away record stands at 13W 7D 12L across their last 32 away games, a 1.44 PPG haul.
Goals in Recent Form
Widzew Łódź are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.35 conceded per game recently; Zaglebie Lubin are on 1.11 scored and 1.38 conceded.
Last 65 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Widzew Łódź
Current Season
Zaglebie Lubin
Current Season
Widzew Łódź (Home) vs Zaglebie Lubin (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Widzew Łódź
Current Season
Zaglebie Lubin
Current Season
❓ Widzew Łódź vs Zaglebie Lubin Form FAQs
What form are Widzew Łódź and Zaglebie Lubin in coming into this match?
Widzew Łódź have gone 23W 14D 28L in their last 65 games (1.28 PPG), while Zaglebie Lubin have gone 23W 17D 25L in their last 65 (1.32 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Widzew Łódź at home or Zaglebie Lubin away?
Zaglebie Lubin's away record (1.44 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Widzew Łódź at home: 1.41 PPG; Zaglebie Lubin away: 1.44 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 8 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 3 years from October 2022. All of them came in Ekstraklasa. The most recent was on 6 December 2025, roughly 11 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 16 Oct 2022, when Widzew Łódź won Widzew Łódź 3-0 Zaglebie Lubin.
Widzew Łódź's record when hosting Zaglebie Lubin specifically: 3W 0D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
3
Widzew Łódź
1
Draws
4
Zaglebie Lubin
Recent Meetings
❓ Widzew Łódź vs Zaglebie Lubin H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Widzew Łódź and Zaglebie Lubin?
Across the 8 head-to-head matches in our data, Widzew Łódź have won 3, Zaglebie Lubin have won 4, and 1 has been drawn.
When did Widzew Łódź and Zaglebie Lubin last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 6 December 2025: Zaglebie Lubin 2-1 Widzew Łódź.
Who has won more matches between Widzew Łódź and Zaglebie Lubin?
Zaglebie Lubin have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from the 8 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Widzew Łódź are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Zaglebie Lubin are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 81% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 34% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 27% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Widzew Łódź 47%, Zaglebie Lubin 44% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 53% (Widzew Łódź) and 56% (Zaglebie Lubin).
On the defensive side: Widzew Łódź keep a clean sheet in 31% of their matches; Zaglebie Lubin in 31%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Widzew Łódź home games / Zaglebie Lubin away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Widzew Łódź vs Zaglebie Lubin Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Widzew Łódź and Zaglebie Lubin matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 47% of Widzew Łódź's recent matches and 44% of Zaglebie Lubin's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Widzew Łódź and Zaglebie Lubin matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 53% of Widzew Łódź's recent games and 56% of Zaglebie Lubin's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Widzew Łódź and Zaglebie Lubin matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 75% of Widzew Łódź's recent matches and 81% of Zaglebie Lubin's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Zaglebie Lubin cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over Widzew Łódź.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Zaglebie Lubin beat Widzew Łódź 1-3 at Stadion Miejski Widzewa Łódź, Regular Season - 32, in the Ekstraklasa. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Widzew Łódź 1.53 xG and Zaglebie Lubin 1.28 xG, a combined 2.81. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. Zaglebie Lubin outscored their 1.28 projection by 1.7. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Widzew Łódź attack 0.90 / defence 0.97 against Zaglebie Lubin attack 1.18 / defence 1.11, drawn from 65/65 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Widzew Łódź 42% | Draw 28% | Zaglebie Lubin 30%, with Widzew Łódź to win its most likely call at 42%. The actual Zaglebie Lubin win had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 53%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 79% and landed. Over 3.5 was 31% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Widzew Łódź 49%, Zaglebie Lubin 45%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Widzew Łódź's trading profile (65 games, 32 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did.
Zaglebie Lubin's trading profile (65 games, 32 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Widzew Łódź 1.28 PPG, Zaglebie Lubin 1.32 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Zaglebie Lubin win broke the near-deadlock. Widzew Łódź (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.41 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Zaglebie Lubin (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.31 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.