Widzew Łódź 0-0 Wisla Krakow – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Widzew Łódź at 43%, yet in-form Wisla Krakow provide a compelling counter-argument — this Widzew Łódź vs Wisla Krakow fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Stadion Widzewa Łódź plays host to Widzew Łódź versus Wisla Krakow in Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 11. Kick-off: Friday 16 October 2026 at 18:30 UTC.
Current Form
Widzew Łódź's overall Ekstraklasa record this term: 1W 6D 3L from 10 games (0.90 PPG). Last five: L D D D L. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Widzew Łódź, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Stadion Widzewa Łódź, Widzew Łódź have gone 4W 4D 2L this season (10 games, 1.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.60 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.90 — Widzew Łódź are significantly better at Stadion Widzewa Łódź than their overall form suggests.
Wisla Krakow have collected 1.70 PPG across 10 Ekstraklasa outings this season: 5W 2D 3L. Last five: W D W W L. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 1.40. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Wisla Krakow, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Wisla Krakow away from home this season: 0W 2D 3L from 5 away games — 0.40 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 2.20 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 0.40 is notably below their overall 1.70 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
On a straight form reading, Wisla Krakow are the stronger side — 0.80 PPG clear of the hosts (1.70 vs 0.90). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Widzew Łódź have seen both teams score in 60% of their games, Wisla Krakow in 80%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
Trading & In-Play
Widzew Łódź — key trading statistics (10 games, 5 at home): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 80% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 80% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 40%.
Wisla Krakow — key trading statistics (10 games, 5 at away): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures in away games; BTTS occurs in 80% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Widzew Łódź 70% and Wisla Krakow 70% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Widzew Łódź 60% | Wisla Krakow 60%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Widzew Łódź 1.69 xG and Wisla Krakow 1.32 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Widzew Łódź attack 0.898 / defence 1.090 | Wisla Krakow attack 0.906 / defence 1.198. League average goals — home 1.571 / away 1.334. Data: 44 Widzew Łódź games / 10 Wisla Krakow games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Widzew Łódź 43% | Draw 30% | Wisla Krakow 27%. Fair-value odds: Widzew Łódź 2.33 | Draw 3.33 | Wisla Krakow 3.70. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 58% | BTTS probability 63% | Total xG 3.01. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 58% — the 3.01 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 63% reflects that both xG figures (1.69 / 1.32) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Widzew Łódź are the pick at 43% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Wisla Krakow (1.70 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. Draw probability of 30% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Widzew Łódź if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 3.01 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 58% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.1 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 63% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Widzew Łódź 60% | Wisla Krakow 80% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Widzew Łódź vs Wisla Krakow | Competition: Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 11 | Venue: Stadion Widzewa Łódź • Kick-off: Friday 16 Oct 2026, 18:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Widzew Łódź 43% | Draw 30% | Wisla Krakow 27% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 58% | BTTS 63% | xG Widzew Łódź 1.69 / Wisla Krakow 1.32 • Poisson strength factors: Widzew Łódź attack 0.898 / def 1.090 | Wisla Krakow attack 0.906 / def 1.198 | league avg home 1.571 / away 1.334 • Poisson stance: Widzew Łódź (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.69
Widzew Łódź xG
Expected Goals
1.32
Wisla Krakow xG
63%
BTTS
84%
Over 1.5
58%
Over 2.5
35%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Widzew Łódź vs Wisla Krakow kick off?
Widzew Łódź vs Wisla Krakow kicked off at 18:30 on Friday 16 October 2026 at Stadion Widzewa Łódź.
What was the final score in Widzew Łódź vs Wisla Krakow?
Widzew Łódź 0 - 0 Wisla Krakow.
Where is Widzew Łódź vs Wisla Krakow being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Widzewa Łódź.
What competition is Widzew Łódź vs Wisla Krakow part of?
Widzew Łódź vs Wisla Krakow is a Regular Season - 11 fixture in the Ekstraklasa (Poland).
Who is favourite to win Widzew Łódź vs Wisla Krakow?
Our statistical model gives Widzew Łódź a 43% chance of winning, Wisla Krakow a 27% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Widzew Łódź the favourite.
Will both teams score in Widzew Łódź vs Wisla Krakow?
Our model estimates a 63% probability that both Widzew Łódź and Wisla Krakow will score (BTTS).
Will Widzew Łódź vs Wisla Krakow have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 58%.
What is the head-to-head record between Widzew Łódź and Wisla Krakow?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Widzew Łódź and Wisla Krakow in?
Widzew Łódź (all comps): 1W-6D-3L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-D-D-D-L. Wisla Krakow (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-D-W-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Widzew Łódź's attack at 0.90x the league average against Wisla Krakow's defence at 1.20x — combine the two and it projects 1.69 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Wisla Krakow's attack (0.91x) against Widzew Łódź's defence (1.09x) — and the away total comes out at 1.32.
These ratings are built from 44/10 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.4% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.3%), 1-2 (7.2%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Widzew Łódź Win
43%
2.33
30%
3.29
27%
3.75
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.0%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.3%
Home win
1 – 0
8.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.69
Widzew Łódź xG
Total xG
3.01
1.32
Wisla Krakow xG
2.33
43%
Home win
3.29
30%
Draw
3.75
27%
Away win
Goals Markets
80%
Over 1.5
1.25
20%
Under 1.5
5.00
58%
Over 2.5
1.72
42%
Under 2.5
2.38
35%
Over 3.5
2.86
65%
Under 3.5
1.54
19%
Over 4.5
5.26
81%
Under 4.5
1.23
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
63%
BTTS Yes
1.59
37%
BTTS No
2.70
Clean Sheet
27%
3.74
18%
5.42
Win to Nil
11%
8.70
5%
20.33
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.9 | 6.5 | 4.3 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 8.3 | 11.0 | 7.2 | 3.2 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 7.1 | 9.3 | 6.1 | 2.7 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 4.0 | 5.2 | 3.5 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.7 | 2.2 | 1.5 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Widzew Łódź vs Wisla Krakow?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.4%.
How many goals are Widzew Łódź and Wisla Krakow expected to score?
The model projects 1.69 expected goals for Widzew Łódź and 1.32 for Wisla Krakow, a combined total of 3.01.
How confident is the prediction model for Widzew Łódź vs Wisla Krakow?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 10 outings, Widzew Łódź have picked up 0.90 PPG on a 1W 6D 3L record — L-D-D-D-L across the most recent five. The sample for Widzew Łódź is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Wisla Krakow's form line: 5W 2D 3L from 10 games, 1.70 PPG, last five W-D-W-W-L. The sample for Wisla Krakow is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Wisla Krakow are the form team by 0.80 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Widzew Łódź.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Widzew Łódź have posted 0.60 PPG from 5 outings (0W 3D 2L).
On the road, Wisla Krakow have gone 0W 2D 3L from 5 away games — 0.40 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 1.70 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Wisla Krakow's season.
Attack vs Defence
Widzew Łódź are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game recently; Wisla Krakow are on 1.70 scored and 1.40 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Widzew Łódź have seen both teams score in 70% of their recent games; Wisla Krakow in 70%.
Last 10 Results — Ekstraklasa
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Widzew Łódź
Blended
Wisla Krakow
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Widzew Łódź and Wisla Krakow in coming into this match?
Widzew Łódź have gone 1W 6D 3L in their last 10 games (0.90 PPG), while Wisla Krakow have gone 5W 2D 3L in their last 10 (1.70 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Widzew Łódź at home or Wisla Krakow away?
Widzew Łódź's home record (0.60 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Widzew Łódź at home: 0.60 PPG; Wisla Krakow away: 0.40 PPG.
Have Widzew Łódź or Wisla Krakow been keeping clean sheets recently?
Widzew Łódź have kept a clean sheet in 30% of their recent games, Wisla Krakow in 20%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 1 times that we have on record, stretching back to October 2026 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Ekstraklasa. The two were last together as recently as 16 October 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Last 1 Meetings
0
Widzew Łódź
1
Draws
0
Wisla Krakow
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Widzew Łódź and Wisla Krakow?
From 1 meetings on record, Widzew Łódź have won 0, Wisla Krakow have won 0, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Widzew Łódź and Wisla Krakow last play each other?
They last met on 16 October 2026, when Widzew Łódź 0-0 Wisla Krakow.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Widzew Łódź are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches.
Wisla Krakow are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 80% for Widzew Łódź, 80% for Wisla Krakow — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 80% for Widzew Łódź and 60% for Wisla Krakow. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 60% and 40% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Widzew Łódź home games / Wisla Krakow away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Widzew Łódź play Wisla Krakow?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 80% of Widzew Łódź's games and 80% of Wisla Krakow's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Widzew Łódź vs Wisla Krakow usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 80% of Widzew Łódź's matches and 60% of Wisla Krakow's.
Do Widzew Łódź and Wisla Krakow tend to score early?
Widzew Łódź have had a goal before half-time in 80% of their recent matches, Wisla Krakow in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Widzew Łódź's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Stadion Widzewa Łódź, Regular Season - 11, as Widzew Łódź and Wisla Krakow drew 0-0 in the Ekstraklasa. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Widzew Łódź 1.69 xG and Wisla Krakow 1.32 xG, a combined 3.01. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Widzew Łódź fell 1.7 short of their projected output. Wisla Krakow landed 1.3 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Widzew Łódź attack 0.90 / defence 1.09 against Wisla Krakow attack 0.91 / defence 1.20, drawn from 44/10 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Widzew Łódź 43% | Draw 30% | Wisla Krakow 27%, with Widzew Łódź to win its most likely call at 43%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 58%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 84% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 63% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 60% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Widzew Łódź 60%, Wisla Krakow 60%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 70%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Widzew Łódź's trading profile (10 games, 5 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 70% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and duly kept one.
Wisla Krakow's trading profile (10 games, 5 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 70% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Wisla Krakow arrived the stronger side — 1.70 PPG against 0.90. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Widzew Łódź (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.40 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.80 average — tighter than their form line. Wisla Krakow (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.40 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 2.20 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.