Widzew Łódź vs Piast Gliwice – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson rates Widzew Łódź at 41% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Widzew Łódź vs Piast Gliwice encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Widzew Łódź host Piast Gliwice at in Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 27. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 3 April 2027 at 16:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Widzew Łódź — All Games: 3W 3D 4L from 10 Ekstraklasa outings this season, averaging 1.20 points per game. Last five: D W L D L. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.40 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Widzew Łódź have played only a handful of Ekstraklasa games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
At home at , Widzew Łódź have gone 5W 3D 2L this season (10 games, 1.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.80 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.20 — Widzew Łódź are significantly better at than their overall form suggests.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Piast Gliwice stand at 2W 3D 5L from 10 Ekstraklasa matches — 0.90 PPG. Last five: W L L D W. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Piast Gliwice have played only a handful of Ekstraklasa games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Piast Gliwice's away record: 3W 2D 5L from 10 road trips in Ekstraklasa this season (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Widzew Łódź 1.20 PPG, Piast Gliwice 0.90 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Widzew Łódź register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, Piast Gliwice in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
Head to Head
Widzew Łódź hold a clear advantage in this fixture, picking up 6 wins from 8 previous encounters compared to 2 for Piast Gliwice, with 0 draws in between.
The 8 previous meetings have averaged 2.8 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 23 May 2026, ended 2–1 with Widzew Łódź winning.
From a betting standpoint, the H2H backs both Widzew Łódź and goals. The home side's 6 wins from 8 meetings, combined with an average of 2.8 goals per game, gives the home win and Over 2.5 combination a historically grounded case.
In-Play Profile
Widzew Łódź in-play tendencies (40 games, 20 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 55% of games (home games).
Piast Gliwice in-play tendencies (40 games, 20 at away): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (away games); they fail to score in 30% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Widzew Łódź 52% versus Piast Gliwice 58%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Widzew Łódź 50% | Piast Gliwice 52%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Widzew Łódź 1.68 xG and Piast Gliwice 1.41 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Widzew Łódź attack 1.051 / defence 1.184 | Piast Gliwice attack 0.914 / defence 1.036. League average goals — home 1.542 / away 1.303. Data: 40 Widzew Łódź games / 40 Piast Gliwice games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Widzew Łódź 41% | Draw 29% | Piast Gliwice 30%. Fair-value odds: Widzew Łódź 2.44 | Draw 3.45 | Piast Gliwice 3.33. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 60% | BTTS probability 64% | Total xG 3.09. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 60% — the 3.09 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 64% reflects that both xG figures (1.68 / 1.41) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Widzew Łódź at 41% — marginal model lean. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Widzew Łódź offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 3.09 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 60% probability — strong conviction, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game and H2H averaging 2.8 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 64%. Form rates corroborate: Widzew Łódź 60% | Piast Gliwice 60% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Widzew Łódź vs Piast Gliwice | Competition: Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 27 | Venue: • Kick-off: Saturday 3 Apr 2027, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Widzew Łódź 41% | Draw 29% | Piast Gliwice 30% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 60% | BTTS 64% | xG Widzew Łódź 1.68 / Piast Gliwice 1.41 • Poisson strength factors: Widzew Łódź attack 1.051 / def 1.184 | Piast Gliwice attack 0.914 / def 1.036 | league avg home 1.542 / away 1.303 • Poisson stance: Widzew Łódź (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.68
Widzew Łódź xG
Expected Goals
1.41
Piast Gliwice xG
64%
BTTS
84%
Over 1.5
60%
Over 2.5
37%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Widzew Łódź vs Piast Gliwice kick off?
Widzew Łódź vs Piast Gliwice is scheduled to kick off at 16:00 on Saturday 3 April 2027.
What competition is Widzew Łódź vs Piast Gliwice part of?
Widzew Łódź vs Piast Gliwice is a Regular Season - 27 fixture in the Ekstraklasa (Poland).
Who is favourite to win Widzew Łódź vs Piast Gliwice?
Our statistical model gives Widzew Łódź a 41% chance of winning, Piast Gliwice a 30% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Widzew Łódź the favourite.
Will both teams score in Widzew Łódź vs Piast Gliwice?
Our model estimates a 64% probability that both Widzew Łódź and Piast Gliwice will score (BTTS).
Will Widzew Łódź vs Piast Gliwice have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 60%.
What is the head-to-head record between Widzew Łódź and Piast Gliwice?
Record (8 meetings): Widzew Łódź 6W | Draws 0 | Piast Gliwice 2W.
What form are Widzew Łódź and Piast Gliwice in?
Widzew Łódź (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.40 | L5 D-W-L-D-L. Piast Gliwice (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.90 | L5 W-L-L-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Widzew Łódź's attacking strength (1.05x league average) is weighed against Piast Gliwice's defensive record (1.04x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.68. The same calculation in reverse, Piast Gliwice's attack versus Widzew Łódź's defence, projects 1.41 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 40/40 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.2%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.0%), 1-2 (7.6%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Widzew Łódź Win
41%
2.42
29%
3.44
30%
3.37
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.8%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.0%
Home win
1 – 0
7.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.68
Widzew Łódź xG
Total xG
3.09
1.41
Piast Gliwice xG
2.42
41%
Home win
3.44
29%
Draw
3.37
30%
Away win
Goals Markets
81%
Over 1.5
1.23
19%
Under 1.5
5.26
60%
Over 2.5
1.67
40%
Under 2.5
2.50
37%
Over 3.5
2.70
63%
Under 3.5
1.59
20%
Over 4.5
5.00
80%
Under 4.5
1.25
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
64%
BTTS Yes
1.56
36%
BTTS No
2.79
Clean Sheet
24%
4.10
19%
5.36
Win to Nil
10%
9.93
6%
18.07
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.6 | 6.4 | 4.5 | 2.1 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 7.6 | 10.8 | 7.6 | 3.6 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 6.4 | 9.0 | 6.4 | 3.0 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 3.6 | 5.1 | 3.6 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.5 | 2.1 | 1.5 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Widzew Łódź vs Piast Gliwice?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.2%.
How many goals are Widzew Łódź and Piast Gliwice expected to score?
The model projects 1.68 expected goals for Widzew Łódź and 1.41 for Piast Gliwice, a combined total of 3.09.
How confident is the prediction model for Widzew Łódź vs Piast Gliwice?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 40 outings, Widzew Łódź have picked up 1.20 PPG on a 13W 9D 18L record — D-W-L-D-L across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Widzew Łódź, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Piast Gliwice's form line: 13W 9D 18L from 40 games, 1.20 PPG, last five W-L-L-D-W. It's still early in the season for Piast Gliwice, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: Widzew Łódź on 1.20 PPG, Piast Gliwice on 1.20. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, Widzew Łódź have posted 1.60 PPG from 20 outings (9W 5D 6L). That's noticeably better than their 1.20 PPG overall — Widzew Łódź are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Piast Gliwice have gone 6W 4D 10L from 20 away games — 1.10 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Widzew Łódź come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Widzew Łódź are averaging 1.27 goals scored and 1.27 conceded per game recently; Piast Gliwice are on 1.30 scored and 1.48 conceded.
Last 40 Results — Ekstraklasa
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Widzew Łódź
Early Season
Piast Gliwice
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Widzew Łódź and Piast Gliwice in coming into this match?
Widzew Łódź have gone 13W 9D 18L in their last 40 games (1.20 PPG), while Piast Gliwice have gone 13W 9D 18L in their last 40 (1.20 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Widzew Łódź at home or Piast Gliwice away?
Widzew Łódź's home record (1.60 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Widzew Łódź at home: 1.60 PPG; Piast Gliwice away: 1.10 PPG.
Have Widzew Łódź or Piast Gliwice been keeping clean sheets recently?
Widzew Łódź have kept a clean sheet in 30% of their recent games, Piast Gliwice in 22%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
8 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Ekstraklasa. They last met on 23 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Widzew Łódź go into this on the back of 5 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
Widzew Łódź's record when hosting Piast Gliwice specifically: 3W 0D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
6
Widzew Łódź
0
Draws
2
Piast Gliwice
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Widzew Łódź and Piast Gliwice?
From 8 meetings on record, Widzew Łódź have won 6, Piast Gliwice have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Widzew Łódź and Piast Gliwice last play each other?
They last met on 23 May 2026, when Widzew Łódź 2-1 Piast Gliwice.
Who has won more matches between Widzew Łódź and Piast Gliwice?
Widzew Łódź have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Widzew Łódź are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time.
Piast Gliwice are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Widzew Łódź 60%, Piast Gliwice 60% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 55% (Widzew Łódź) and 60% (Piast Gliwice). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 30% and 25% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Widzew Łódź keep a clean sheet in 35% of their matches; Piast Gliwice in 30%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Widzew Łódź home games / Piast Gliwice away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Widzew Łódź play Piast Gliwice?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 60% of Widzew Łódź's games and 60% of Piast Gliwice's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Widzew Łódź vs Piast Gliwice usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 55% of Widzew Łódź's matches and 60% of Piast Gliwice's.
Do Widzew Łódź and Piast Gliwice tend to score early?
Widzew Łódź have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, Piast Gliwice in 60% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.