Warta Poznań 1-1 Stal Mielec – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Warta Poznań at 37%, yet other data sources diverge — this Warta Poznań vs Stal Mielec fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Warta Poznań host Stal Mielec at Stadion Groclinu Dyskobolii in Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 17. Kick-off is scheduled for Friday 11 November 2022 at 17:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Warta Poznań stand at 5W 3D 2L from 10 Ekstraklasa matches — 1.80 PPG. Last five: L W D W W. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 0.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.60 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence. This season is still relatively young for Warta Poznań, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Stadion Groclinu Dyskobolii, Warta Poznań have gone 2W 2D 6L this season (10 games, 0.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 0.80 lags behind their overall 1.80 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at Stadion Groclinu Dyskobolii this season.
Stal Mielec — All Games: 5W 1D 4L from 10 Ekstraklasa fixtures this season — 1.60 PPG. Last five: W W D L W. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No. This season is still relatively young for Stal Mielec, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Stal Mielec away from home this season: 4W 0D 6L from 10 away games — 1.20 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Warta Poznań at 1.80 PPG versus Stal Mielec's 1.60. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 2 previous meetings, Warta Poznań have won 1, Stal Mielec 0, with 1 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The last 2 meetings have been tight affairs, averaging just 0.5 goals per game. That low-scoring pattern is a meaningful historical input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent clash, on 16 Apr 2022, ended 1–0 with Warta Poznań winning.
With a balanced win record and just 0.5 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Profile
Warta Poznań in-play tendencies (50 games, 24 at home): they score before half-time in 54% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 81% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (home games); they fail to score in 40% of games.
Stal Mielec in-play tendencies (50 games, 24 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 57% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Warta Poznań 34% versus Stal Mielec 52%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Warta Poznań 32% | Stal Mielec 48%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Warta Poznań 1.14 xG and Stal Mielec 1.09 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Warta Poznań attack 0.771 / defence 0.939 | Stal Mielec attack 0.934 / defence 1.108. League average goals — home 1.339 / away 1.248. Warta Poznań's attack strength of 0.771 is below the league average — the 1.14 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 50 Warta Poznań games / 50 Stal Mielec games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Warta Poznań 37% | Draw 29% | Stal Mielec 34%. Fair-value odds: Warta Poznań 2.70 | Draw 3.45 | Stal Mielec 2.94. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 39% | BTTS probability 45% | Total xG 2.24. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 61% — total xG of 2.24 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 45% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Warta Poznań as the most likely outcome at 37% — marginal model lean. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Warta Poznań offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.24 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 39% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 45%. Form rates corroborate: Warta Poznań 40% | Stal Mielec 30% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Warta Poznań vs Stal Mielec | Competition: Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 17 | Venue: Stadion Groclinu Dyskobolii • Kick-off: Friday 11 Nov 2022, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Warta Poznań 37% | Draw 29% | Stal Mielec 34% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 39% | BTTS 45% | xG Warta Poznań 1.14 / Stal Mielec 1.09 • Poisson strength factors: Warta Poznań attack 0.771 / def 0.939 | Stal Mielec attack 0.934 / def 1.108 | league avg home 1.339 / away 1.248 • Poisson stance: Warta Poznań (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.14
Warta Poznań xG
Expected Goals
1.09
Stal Mielec xG
45%
BTTS
65%
Over 1.5
39%
Over 2.5
19%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Warta Poznań vs Stal Mielec kick off?
Warta Poznań vs Stal Mielec kicked off at 17:00 on Friday 11 November 2022 at Stadion Groclinu Dyskobolii.
What was the final score in Warta Poznań vs Stal Mielec?
Warta Poznań 1 - 1 Stal Mielec.
Where is Warta Poznań vs Stal Mielec being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Groclinu Dyskobolii.
What competition is Warta Poznań vs Stal Mielec part of?
Warta Poznań vs Stal Mielec is a Regular Season - 17 fixture in the Ekstraklasa (Poland).
Who is favourite to win Warta Poznań vs Stal Mielec?
Our statistical model gives Warta Poznań a 37% chance of winning, Stal Mielec a 34% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Warta Poznań the favourite.
Will both teams score in Warta Poznań vs Stal Mielec?
Our model estimates a 45% probability that both Warta Poznań and Stal Mielec will score (BTTS).
Will Warta Poznań vs Stal Mielec have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 39%.
What is the head-to-head record between Warta Poznań and Stal Mielec?
Record (2 meetings): Warta Poznań 1W | Draws 1 | Stal Mielec 0W.
What form are Warta Poznań and Stal Mielec in?
Warta Poznań (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 0.60 | L5 L-W-D-W-W. Stal Mielec (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-W-D-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Warta Poznań's attack at 0.77x the league average against Stal Mielec's defence at 1.11x — combine the two and it projects 1.14 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Stal Mielec's attack versus Warta Poznań's defence, projects 1.09 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 50/50 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 15.1% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (12.4%), 1-0 (10.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 38% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Warta Poznań Win
37%
2.72
29%
3.47
34%
2.91
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.3%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
12.2%
Home win
0 – 1
11.7%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.14
Warta Poznań xG
Total xG
2.24
1.09
Stal Mielec xG
2.72
37%
Home win
3.47
29%
Draw
2.91
34%
Away win
Goals Markets
65%
Over 1.5
1.54
35%
Under 1.5
2.86
39%
Over 2.5
2.56
61%
Under 2.5
1.64
19%
Over 3.5
5.26
81%
Under 3.5
1.23
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
45%
BTTS Yes
2.21
55%
BTTS No
1.83
Clean Sheet
33%
2.99
32%
3.14
Win to Nil
12%
8.12
11%
9.14
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.7 | 11.7 | 6.4 | 2.3 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.2 | 13.3 | 7.3 | 2.7 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.0 | 7.6 | 4.2 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.7 | 2.9 | 1.6 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.8 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Warta Poznań vs Stal Mielec?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.1%.
How many goals are Warta Poznań and Stal Mielec expected to score?
The model projects 1.14 expected goals for Warta Poznań and 1.09 for Stal Mielec, a combined total of 2.24.
How confident is the prediction model for Warta Poznań vs Stal Mielec?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 50 outings, Warta Poznań have picked up 1.32 PPG on a 18W 12D 20L record — L-W-D-W-W across the most recent five. The sample for Warta Poznań is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Stal Mielec's form line: 17W 12D 21L from 50 games, 1.26 PPG, last five W-W-D-L-W. The sample for Stal Mielec is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Warta Poznań on 1.32 PPG, Stal Mielec on 1.26. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Warta Poznań have posted 0.96 PPG from 24 outings (5W 8D 11L).
On the road, Stal Mielec have gone 6W 5D 13L from 24 away games — 0.96 PPG when travelling.
The Goals Picture
Warta Poznań are averaging 1.04 goals scored and 1.06 conceded per game recently; Stal Mielec are on 1.26 scored and 1.46 conceded.
Last 50 Results — Ekstraklasa
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Warta Poznań
Blended
Stal Mielec
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Warta Poznań and Stal Mielec in coming into this match?
Warta Poznań have gone 18W 12D 20L in their last 50 games (1.32 PPG), while Stal Mielec have gone 17W 12D 21L in their last 50 (1.26 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Warta Poznań at home or Stal Mielec away?
Warta Poznań's home record (0.96 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Warta Poznań at home: 0.96 PPG; Stal Mielec away: 0.96 PPG.
Have Warta Poznań or Stal Mielec been keeping clean sheets recently?
Warta Poznań have kept a clean sheet in 34% of their recent games, Stal Mielec in 24%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Warta Poznań and Stal Mielec runs to 6 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Ekstraklasa. It has been a while since the last meeting — 22 April 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
Warta Poznań go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 22 Apr 2024, when Warta Poznań won 5-2 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Warta Poznań's record when hosting Stal Mielec specifically: 1W 2D 0L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
3
Warta Poznań
2
Draws
1
Stal Mielec
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Warta Poznań and Stal Mielec?
From 6 meetings on record, Warta Poznań have won 3, Stal Mielec have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Warta Poznań and Stal Mielec last play each other?
They last met on 22 April 2024, when Warta Poznań 5-2 Stal Mielec.
Who has won more matches between Warta Poznań and Stal Mielec?
Warta Poznań have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Warta Poznań see a goal before the break in 54% of their matches.
Stal Mielec are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Warta Poznań 50%, Stal Mielec 54% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 38% (Warta Poznań) and 54% (Stal Mielec).
On the defensive side: Warta Poznań have failed to score in 42% of games; Stal Mielec in 29%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Warta Poznań home games / Stal Mielec away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Warta Poznań play Stal Mielec?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Warta Poznań's recent matches and 54% of Stal Mielec's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Warta Poznań vs Stal Mielec usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 38% of Warta Poznań's recent games and 54% of Stal Mielec's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Warta Poznań and Stal Mielec tend to score early?
Warta Poznań have had a goal before half-time in 54% of their recent matches, Stal Mielec in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Warta Poznań and Stal Mielec share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Stadion Groclinu Dyskobolii, Regular Season - 17, as Warta Poznań and Stal Mielec drew 1-1 in the Ekstraklasa. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Warta Poznań 1.14 xG and Stal Mielec 1.09 xG, a combined 2.24. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Warta Poznań attack 0.77 / defence 0.94 against Stal Mielec attack 0.93 / defence 1.11, drawn from 50/50 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Warta Poznań 37% | Draw 29% | Stal Mielec 34%, with Warta Poznań to win its most likely call at 37%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 39%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 65% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 45% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 40% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Warta Poznań 32%, Stal Mielec 48%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 43%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Warta Poznań's trading profile (50 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 34% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and conceded here.
Stal Mielec's trading profile (50 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Warta Poznań 1.32 PPG, Stal Mielec 1.26 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.