Warta Poznań 1-1 Pogon Szczecin – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model projects a closely fought contest — draw probability sits at 35% as Warta Poznań take on Pogon Szczecin.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Pogon Szczecin make the trip to Stadion Groclinu Dyskobolii to face Warta Poznań in Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 2. The match kicks off on Sunday 1 August 2021 at 14:00 UTC.
Form
Warta Poznań (all games): 0W 1D 0L across 1 Ekstraklasa fixtures this term — 1.00 PPG. Last five: D. They are averaging 2.00 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. However, 2.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Both teams have scored in 100% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. Warta Poznań have played only a handful of Ekstraklasa games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Pogon Szczecin's overall Ekstraklasa record this term: 1W 0D 0L from 1 games (3.00 PPG). Last five: W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.00 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 1 clean sheet from 1 games (100%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Pogon Szczecin have played only a handful of Ekstraklasa games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
The travelling side arrive in better shape. Pogon Szczecin are 2.00 PPG clear of Warta Poznań in recent Ekstraklasa fixtures (3.00 vs 1.00). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Warta Poznań 1.26 xG and Pogon Szczecin 1.20 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Warta Poznań attack 0.968 / defence 1.150 | Pogon Szczecin attack 0.850 / defence 1.150. League average goals — home 1.136 / away 1.226. Data: 1 Warta Poznań games / 1 Pogon Szczecin games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Warta Poznań 34% | Draw 35% | Pogon Szczecin 31%. Fair-value odds: Warta Poznań 2.94 | Draw 2.86 | Pogon Szczecin 3.23. The draw (35%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 45% | BTTS probability 54% | Total xG 2.46. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 55% — total xG of 2.46 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 54% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 35% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 34% and away win at 31% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
The Poisson model projects 2.46 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 45% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence — though form averaging only 3.0 goals per game points in the other direction.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects. The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (1 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Warta Poznań vs Pogon Szczecin | Competition: Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 2 | Venue: Stadion Groclinu Dyskobolii • Kick-off: Sunday 1 Aug 2021, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Warta Poznań 34% | Draw 35% | Pogon Szczecin 31% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 45% | BTTS 54% | xG Warta Poznań 1.26 / Pogon Szczecin 1.20 • Poisson strength factors: Warta Poznań attack 0.968 / def 1.150 | Pogon Szczecin attack 0.850 / def 1.150 | league avg home 1.136 / away 1.226 • Poisson stance: Draw (35%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.26
Warta Poznań xG
Expected Goals
1.20
Pogon Szczecin xG
54%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
45%
Over 2.5
23%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Warta Poznań vs Pogon Szczecin kick off?
Warta Poznań vs Pogon Szczecin kicked off at 14:00 on Sunday 1 August 2021 at Stadion Groclinu Dyskobolii.
What was the final score in Warta Poznań vs Pogon Szczecin?
Warta Poznań 1 - 1 Pogon Szczecin.
Where is Warta Poznań vs Pogon Szczecin being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Groclinu Dyskobolii.
What competition is Warta Poznań vs Pogon Szczecin part of?
Warta Poznań vs Pogon Szczecin is a Regular Season - 2 fixture in the Ekstraklasa (Poland).
Who is favourite to win Warta Poznań vs Pogon Szczecin?
Our statistical model gives Warta Poznań a 34% chance of winning, Pogon Szczecin a 31% chance, and a 35% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in Warta Poznań vs Pogon Szczecin?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both Warta Poznań and Pogon Szczecin will score (BTTS).
Will Warta Poznań vs Pogon Szczecin have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 45%.
What is the head-to-head record between Warta Poznań and Pogon Szczecin?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Warta Poznań and Pogon Szczecin in?
Warta Poznań (all comps): 0W-1D-0L in 1 | 1.00 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 2.00 | L5 D. Pogon Szczecin (all comps): 1W-0D-0L in 1 | 3.00 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 0.00 | L5 W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Warta Poznań's attack rating (0.97) and Pogon Szczecin's defence rating (1.15), the model arrives at 1.26 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Pogon Szczecin's attack (0.85x) against Warta Poznań's defence (1.15x) — and the away total comes out at 1.20.
The sample (1/1 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.6%. Close behind: 0-0 (10.2%), 1-0 (9.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Draw
34%
2.93
35%
2.86
31%
3.23
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.9%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.8%
Home win
0 – 1
10.2%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.26
Warta Poznań xG
Total xG
2.46
1.20
Pogon Szczecin xG
2.93
34%
Home win
2.86
35%
Draw
3.23
31%
Away win
Goals Markets
70%
Over 1.5
1.43
30%
Under 1.5
3.33
45%
Over 2.5
2.22
55%
Under 2.5
1.82
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.85
46%
BTTS No
2.17
Clean Sheet
30%
3.31
28%
3.54
Win to Nil
10%
9.72
9%
11.45
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.5 | 10.2 | 6.1 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 10.8 | 12.9 | 7.7 | 3.1 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.8 | 8.2 | 4.9 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.9 | 3.4 | 2.1 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.9 | 1.1 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Warta Poznań vs Pogon Szczecin?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.6%.
How many goals are Warta Poznań and Pogon Szczecin expected to score?
The model projects 1.26 expected goals for Warta Poznań and 1.20 for Pogon Szczecin, a combined total of 2.46.
How confident is the prediction model for Warta Poznań vs Pogon Szczecin?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 35%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Warta Poznań come into this having played 1 games, going 0W 1D 0L for 1.00 points per game. Their last five reads D. It's still early in the season for Warta Poznań, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Pogon Szczecin sit at 3.00 PPG from 1 outings (1W 0D 0L), a run that reads W across their last five. It's still early in the season for Pogon Szczecin, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Pogon Szczecin carry the stronger recent form of the two, 2.00 PPG clear of Warta Poznań — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Attack vs Defence
Warta Poznań are averaging 2.00 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game recently; Pogon Szczecin are on 2.00 scored and 0.00 conceded. Warta Poznań's scoring rate against Pogon Szczecin's tighter defensive record is one of the more interesting match-ups in the goals markets here.
On BTTS specifically: Warta Poznań have seen both teams score in 100% of their recent games; Pogon Szczecin in 0%.
Defensively: Pogon Szczecin in 100% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 1 Results — Ekstraklasa
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Warta Poznań
Early Season
Pogon Szczecin
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Warta Poznań and Pogon Szczecin in coming into this match?
Warta Poznań have gone 0W 1D 0L in their last 1 games (1.00 PPG), while Pogon Szczecin have gone 1W 0D 0L in their last 1 (3.00 PPG).
Have Warta Poznań or Pogon Szczecin been keeping clean sheets recently?
Warta Poznań have kept a clean sheet in 0% of their recent games, Pogon Szczecin in 100%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 6 times that we have on record, stretching back to August 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 2 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Ekstraklasa. It has been a while since the last meeting — 8 December 2023, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Warta Poznań have gone 0W 1D 2L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Pogon Szczecin — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
0
Warta Poznań
3
Draws
3
Pogon Szczecin
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Warta Poznań and Pogon Szczecin?
From 6 meetings on record, Warta Poznań have won 0, Pogon Szczecin have won 3, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Warta Poznań and Pogon Szczecin last play each other?
They last met on 8 December 2023, when Pogon Szczecin 3-3 Warta Poznań.
Who has won more matches between Warta Poznań and Pogon Szczecin?
Pogon Szczecin have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Warta Poznań home games / Pogon Szczecin away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Warta Poznań play Pogon Szczecin?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 100% of Warta Poznań's recent matches and 0% of Pogon Szczecin's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Warta Poznań vs Pogon Szczecin usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 100% of Warta Poznań's recent games and 0% of Pogon Szczecin's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Warta Poznań and Pogon Szczecin tend to score early?
Warta Poznań have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, Pogon Szczecin in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Warta Poznań and Pogon Szczecin share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Warta Poznań and Pogon Szczecin finished level at 1-1 at Stadion Groclinu Dyskobolii, Regular Season - 2, in the Ekstraklasa. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Warta Poznań 1.26 xG and Pogon Szczecin 1.20 xG, a combined 2.46. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Warta Poznań attack 0.97 / defence 1.15 against Pogon Szczecin attack 0.85 / defence 1.15, drawn from 1/1 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Warta Poznań 34% | Draw 35% | Pogon Szczecin 31%, with the draw its most likely call at 35%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 74% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Warta Poznań 100%, Pogon Szczecin 0%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Form vs Result
On form, Pogon Szczecin arrived the stronger side — 3.00 PPG against 1.00. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Warta Poznań managed 1 against a 2.00 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 1 against a 2.00 average — tighter than their form line. Pogon Szczecin managed 1 against a 2.00 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 1 against a 0.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.