Warta Poznań 1-1 Miedz Legnica – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Warta Poznań at 41% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Warta Poznań vs Miedz Legnica encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Warta Poznań host Miedz Legnica at Stadion Groclinu Dyskobolii in Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 20. Kick-off is scheduled for Monday 13 February 2023 at 18:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Warta Poznań stand at 4W 4D 2L from 10 Ekstraklasa matches — 1.60 PPG. Last five: D W W D D. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 0.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for Warta Poznań, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Warta Poznań have posted 1W 4D 5L at Stadion Groclinu Dyskobolii — 0.70 PPG. At home they are averaging 0.80 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 0.70 lags behind their overall 1.60 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at Stadion Groclinu Dyskobolii this season.
Across all Ekstraklasa games this season, Miedz Legnica have recorded 2W 3D 5L from 10 outings — 0.90 PPG. Last five: W W D D L. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for Miedz Legnica, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Miedz Legnica's away record: 1W 1D 7L from 9 road trips in Ekstraklasa this season (0.44 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.67 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 56% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Warta Poznań are in the better shape of the two on current Ekstraklasa data — 0.70 PPG ahead (1.60 vs 0.90). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 1 previous meetings, Warta Poznań have won 1, Miedz Legnica 0, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 1 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 30 Jul 2022, ended 2–1 with Warta Poznań winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Warta Poznań in-play tendencies (19 games, 9 at home): they score before half-time in 44% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time; they fail to score in 37% of games.
Miedz Legnica in-play tendencies (19 games, 9 at away): they score before half-time in 89% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (away games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Warta Poznań 32% versus Miedz Legnica 58%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Warta Poznań 26% | Miedz Legnica 53%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Warta Poznań 1.19 xG and Miedz Legnica 0.90 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Warta Poznań attack 0.911 / defence 0.983 | Miedz Legnica attack 0.802 / defence 1.102. League average goals — home 1.181 / away 1.143. Data: 52 Warta Poznań games / 19 Miedz Legnica games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Warta Poznań 41% | Draw 33% | Miedz Legnica 26%. Fair-value odds: Warta Poznań 2.44 | Draw 3.03 | Miedz Legnica 3.85. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 33% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 35% | BTTS probability 43% | Total xG 2.09. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 65% probability — total xG of 2.09 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 43% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Warta Poznań at 41% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 33% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Warta Poznań offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.09 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 35% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 43% on No. Form rates are neutral: Warta Poznań 50% | Miedz Legnica 56%.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Warta Poznań vs Miedz Legnica | Competition: Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 20 | Venue: Stadion Groclinu Dyskobolii • Kick-off: Monday 13 Feb 2023, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Warta Poznań 41% | Draw 33% | Miedz Legnica 26% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 35% | BTTS 43% | xG Warta Poznań 1.19 / Miedz Legnica 0.90 • Poisson strength factors: Warta Poznań attack 0.911 / def 0.983 | Miedz Legnica attack 0.802 / def 1.102 | league avg home 1.181 / away 1.143 • Poisson stance: Warta Poznań (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.19
Warta Poznań xG
Expected Goals
0.90
Miedz Legnica xG
43%
BTTS
64%
Over 1.5
35%
Over 2.5
16%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Warta Poznań vs Miedz Legnica kick off?
Warta Poznań vs Miedz Legnica kicked off at 18:00 on Monday 13 February 2023 at Stadion Groclinu Dyskobolii.
What was the final score in Warta Poznań vs Miedz Legnica?
Warta Poznań 1 - 1 Miedz Legnica.
Where is Warta Poznań vs Miedz Legnica being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Groclinu Dyskobolii.
What competition is Warta Poznań vs Miedz Legnica part of?
Warta Poznań vs Miedz Legnica is a Regular Season - 20 fixture in the Ekstraklasa (Poland).
Who is favourite to win Warta Poznań vs Miedz Legnica?
Our statistical model gives Warta Poznań a 41% chance of winning, Miedz Legnica a 26% chance, and a 33% chance of a draw — making Warta Poznań the favourite.
Will both teams score in Warta Poznań vs Miedz Legnica?
Our model estimates a 43% probability that both Warta Poznań and Miedz Legnica will score (BTTS).
Will Warta Poznań vs Miedz Legnica have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 35%.
What is the head-to-head record between Warta Poznań and Miedz Legnica?
Record (1 meetings): Warta Poznań 1W | Draws 0 | Miedz Legnica 0W.
What form are Warta Poznań and Miedz Legnica in?
Warta Poznań (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 0.80 | L5 D-W-W-D-D. Miedz Legnica (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-W-D-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Warta Poznań's attack rating (0.91) and Miedz Legnica's defence rating (1.10), the model arrives at 1.19 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Miedz Legnica's attack versus Warta Poznań's defence, projects 0.90 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 52/19 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 15.0%. Close behind: 0-0 (14.1%), 1-0 (13.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 42% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Warta Poznań Win
41%
2.46
33%
3.00
26%
3.84
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.7%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.3%
Draw
0 – 0
12.4%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.19
Warta Poznań xG
Total xG
2.09
0.90
Miedz Legnica xG
2.46
41%
Home win
3.00
33%
Draw
3.84
26%
Away win
Goals Markets
62%
Over 1.5
1.61
38%
Under 1.5
2.63
35%
Over 2.5
2.86
65%
Under 2.5
1.54
16%
Over 3.5
6.25
84%
Under 3.5
1.19
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
43%
BTTS Yes
2.32
57%
BTTS No
1.76
Clean Sheet
41%
2.46
31%
3.27
Win to Nil
16%
6.06
8%
12.58
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.4 | 11.2 | 5.0 | 1.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 14.7 | 13.3 | 6.0 | 1.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.7 | 7.9 | 3.5 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 3.4 | 3.1 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.0 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Warta Poznań vs Miedz Legnica?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.0%.
How many goals are Warta Poznań and Miedz Legnica expected to score?
The model projects 1.19 expected goals for Warta Poznań and 0.90 for Miedz Legnica, a combined total of 2.09.
How confident is the prediction model for Warta Poznań vs Miedz Legnica?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 19 outings, Warta Poznań have picked up 1.53 PPG on a 8W 5D 6L record — D-W-W-D-D across the most recent five. The sample for Warta Poznań is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Miedz Legnica's form line: 3W 5D 11L from 19 games, 0.74 PPG, last five W-W-D-D-L. The sample for Miedz Legnica is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Warta Poznań are the form team by 0.79 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Miedz Legnica.
Venue Form
On home soil, Warta Poznań have posted 0.78 PPG from 9 outings (1W 4D 4L). That actually lags their 1.53 PPG overall record — home advantage hasn't been translating into results for them lately.
On the road, Miedz Legnica have gone 1W 1D 7L from 9 away games — 0.44 PPG when travelling.
Goals in Recent Form
Warta Poznań are averaging 1.05 goals scored and 0.89 conceded per game recently; Miedz Legnica are on 1.05 scored and 1.58 conceded.
Defensively: Warta Poznań have kept a clean sheet in 42% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 19 Results — Ekstraklasa
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Warta Poznań
Blended
Miedz Legnica
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Warta Poznań and Miedz Legnica in coming into this match?
Warta Poznań have gone 8W 5D 6L in their last 19 games (1.53 PPG), while Miedz Legnica have gone 3W 5D 11L in their last 19 (0.74 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Warta Poznań at home or Miedz Legnica away?
Warta Poznań's home record (0.78 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Warta Poznań at home: 0.78 PPG; Miedz Legnica away: 0.44 PPG.
Have Warta Poznań or Miedz Legnica been keeping clean sheets recently?
Warta Poznań have kept a clean sheet in 42% of their recent games, Miedz Legnica in 16%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
2 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to July 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Ekstraklasa. It has been a while since the last meeting — 13 February 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
1
Warta Poznań
1
Draws
0
Miedz Legnica
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Warta Poznań and Miedz Legnica?
From 2 meetings on record, Warta Poznań have won 1, Miedz Legnica have won 0, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Warta Poznań and Miedz Legnica last play each other?
They last met on 13 February 2023, when Warta Poznań 1-1 Miedz Legnica.
Who has won more matches between Warta Poznań and Miedz Legnica?
Warta Poznań have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Warta Poznań see a goal before the break in 44% of their matches.
Miedz Legnica are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 89% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Warta Poznań 44%, Miedz Legnica 56% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 33% (Warta Poznań) and 56% (Miedz Legnica).
On the defensive side: Warta Poznań have failed to score in 44% of games; Miedz Legnica in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Warta Poznań home games / Miedz Legnica away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Warta Poznań play Miedz Legnica?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 44% of Warta Poznań's recent matches and 56% of Miedz Legnica's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Warta Poznań vs Miedz Legnica usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 33% of Warta Poznań's recent games and 56% of Miedz Legnica's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Warta Poznań and Miedz Legnica tend to score early?
Warta Poznań have had a goal before half-time in 44% of their recent matches, Miedz Legnica in 89% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Warta Poznań and Miedz Legnica share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Warta Poznań and Miedz Legnica finished level at 1-1 at Stadion Groclinu Dyskobolii, Regular Season - 20, in the Ekstraklasa. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Warta Poznań 1.19 xG and Miedz Legnica 0.90 xG, a combined 2.09. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Warta Poznań attack 0.91 / defence 0.98 against Miedz Legnica attack 0.80 / defence 1.10, drawn from 52/19 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Warta Poznań 41% | Draw 33% | Miedz Legnica 26%, with Warta Poznań to win its most likely call at 41%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 33%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 35%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 64% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 43% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 39% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Warta Poznań 26%, Miedz Legnica 53%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 45%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Warta Poznań's trading profile (19 games, 9 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 32% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time, and conceded here.
Miedz Legnica's trading profile (19 games, 9 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Warta Poznań arrived the stronger side — 1.53 PPG against 0.74. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.