Stal Mielec 1-0 Radomiak Radom – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Radomiak Radom at 43%, yet other data sources diverge — this Stal Mielec vs Radomiak Radom fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Ekstraklasa clash, Regular Season - 9 as Stal Mielec welcome Radomiak Radom to Stadion MOSiR. Kick-off is set for Saturday 25 September 2021 at 14:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Stal Mielec stand at 2W 2D 4L from 8 Ekstraklasa matches — 1.00 PPG. Last five: W L W D L. They are averaging 0.88 goals per game and conceding 1.62 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 8 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Stal Mielec, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Stal Mielec at Stadion MOSiR this season: 2W 0D 2L from 4 home games — 1.50 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. At home, both teams have scored in only 25% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Their home PPG of 1.50 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.00 — Stal Mielec are significantly better at Stadion MOSiR than their overall form suggests.
Across all Ekstraklasa games this season, Radomiak Radom have recorded 2W 4D 1L from 7 outings — 1.43 PPG. Last five: L W D D D. Their scoring rate of 1.14 per game is modest, conceding 0.86 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 7 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Radomiak Radom have played only a handful of Ekstraklasa games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
On the road, Radomiak Radom have gone 0W 2D 1L from 3 away fixtures this term (0.67 PPG). Away from home they average 0.67 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.67 is notably below their overall 1.43 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.00 PPG (Stal Mielec) versus 1.43 (Radomiak Radom). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
In-Play Data
Stal Mielec trading profile (7 games, 3 at home): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games; they fail to score in 43% of games.
Radomiak Radom trading profile (7 games, 3 at away): they score before half-time in 57% of fixtures; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; when trailing at the break they recover to draw or win in 29% of cases; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 29% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Stal Mielec 43% versus Radomiak Radom 57%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Stal Mielec 43% | Radomiak Radom 29%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Stal Mielec 0.94 xG and Radomiak Radom 1.25 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Stal Mielec attack 0.803 / defence 1.314 | Radomiak Radom attack 0.840 / defence 1.035. League average goals — home 1.129 / away 1.129. Data: 8 Stal Mielec games / 7 Radomiak Radom games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Stal Mielec 27% | Draw 30% | Radomiak Radom 43%. Fair-value odds: Stal Mielec 3.70 | Draw 3.33 | Radomiak Radom 2.33. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 37% | BTTS probability 44% | Total xG 2.18. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 63% — total xG of 2.18 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 44% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Radomiak Radom as the most likely outcome at 43% — marginal model lean. With a 30% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Radomiak Radom offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.18 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 37% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.1 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 44% on No. Form rates corroborate: Stal Mielec 25% | Radomiak Radom 33% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Stal Mielec vs Radomiak Radom | Competition: Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 9 | Venue: Stadion MOSiR • Kick-off: Saturday 25 Sep 2021, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Stal Mielec 27% | Draw 30% | Radomiak Radom 43% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 37% | BTTS 44% | xG Stal Mielec 0.94 / Radomiak Radom 1.25 • Poisson strength factors: Stal Mielec attack 0.803 / def 1.314 | Radomiak Radom attack 0.840 / def 1.035 | league avg home 1.129 / away 1.129 • Poisson stance: Radomiak Radom (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.94
Stal Mielec xG
Expected Goals
1.25
Radomiak Radom xG
44%
BTTS
65%
Over 1.5
37%
Over 2.5
18%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Stal Mielec vs Radomiak Radom kick off?
Stal Mielec vs Radomiak Radom kicked off at 14:00 on Saturday 25 September 2021 at Stadion MOSiR.
What was the final score in Stal Mielec vs Radomiak Radom?
Stal Mielec 1 - 0 Radomiak Radom.
Where is Stal Mielec vs Radomiak Radom being played?
The match is being played at Stadion MOSiR.
What competition is Stal Mielec vs Radomiak Radom part of?
Stal Mielec vs Radomiak Radom is a Regular Season - 9 fixture in the Ekstraklasa (Poland).
Who is favourite to win Stal Mielec vs Radomiak Radom?
Our statistical model gives Stal Mielec a 27% chance of winning, Radomiak Radom a 43% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Radomiak Radom the favourite.
Will both teams score in Stal Mielec vs Radomiak Radom?
Our model estimates a 44% probability that both Stal Mielec and Radomiak Radom will score (BTTS).
Will Stal Mielec vs Radomiak Radom have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 37%.
What is the head-to-head record between Stal Mielec and Radomiak Radom?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Stal Mielec and Radomiak Radom in?
Stal Mielec (all comps): 2W-2D-4L in 8 | 1.00 PPG | GF 0.88 / GA 1.62 | L5 W-L-W-D-L. Radomiak Radom (all comps): 2W-4D-1L in 7 | 1.43 PPG | GF 1.14 / GA 0.86 | L5 L-W-D-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Stal Mielec's attack at 0.80x the league average against Radomiak Radom's defence at 1.03x — combine the two and it projects 0.94 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Radomiak Radom's attack versus Stal Mielec's defence, projects 1.25 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 8/7 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.9% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (13.0%), 0-1 (12.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 40% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Radomiak Radom Win
27%
3.69
30%
3.29
43%
2.35
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
14.0%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.2%
Draw
0 – 0
11.3%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.94
Stal Mielec xG
Total xG
2.18
1.25
Radomiak Radom xG
3.69
27%
Home win
3.29
30%
Draw
2.35
43%
Away win
Goals Markets
64%
Over 1.5
1.56
36%
Under 1.5
2.78
37%
Over 2.5
2.70
63%
Under 2.5
1.59
18%
Over 3.5
5.56
82%
Under 3.5
1.22
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
44%
BTTS Yes
2.27
56%
BTTS No
1.79
Clean Sheet
29%
3.48
39%
2.55
Win to Nil
8%
12.84
17%
6.00
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.3 | 14.0 | 8.7 | 3.6 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 10.6 | 13.2 | 8.2 | 3.4 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 5.0 | 6.2 | 3.8 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.5 | 1.9 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Stal Mielec vs Radomiak Radom?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.9%.
How many goals are Stal Mielec and Radomiak Radom expected to score?
The model projects 0.94 expected goals for Stal Mielec and 1.25 for Radomiak Radom, a combined total of 2.18.
How confident is the prediction model for Stal Mielec vs Radomiak Radom?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Stal Mielec's recent record stands at 2W 1D 4L from 7 games, a 1.00 PPG return, with W-L-W-D-L in the last five. It's still early in the season for Stal Mielec, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Radomiak Radom, meanwhile, have gone 2W 4D 1L across 7 games — 1.43 PPG, with L-W-D-D-D in their last five. It's still early in the season for Radomiak Radom, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
The points-per-game comparison favours Radomiak Radom by 0.43 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Stal Mielec heading into this one.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Stal Mielec have managed 2W 0D 1L from 3 games — 2.00 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.00 PPG overall — Stal Mielec are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Radomiak Radom's away record stands at 0W 2D 1L across 3 trips, a 0.67 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 1.43 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Radomiak Radom's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Stal Mielec come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Stal Mielec are averaging 0.86 goals scored and 1.71 conceded per game recently; Radomiak Radom are on 1.14 scored and 0.86 conceded.
Last 7 Results — Ekstraklasa
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Stal Mielec
Early Season
Radomiak Radom
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Stal Mielec and Radomiak Radom in coming into this match?
Stal Mielec have gone 2W 1D 4L in their last 7 games (1.00 PPG), while Radomiak Radom have gone 2W 4D 1L in their last 7 (1.43 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Stal Mielec at home or Radomiak Radom away?
Stal Mielec's home record (2.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Stal Mielec at home: 2.00 PPG; Radomiak Radom away: 0.67 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
8 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Ekstraklasa. It has been a while since the last meeting — 16 May 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
Stal Mielec's record when hosting Radomiak Radom specifically: 2W 2D 0L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
3
Stal Mielec
3
Draws
2
Radomiak Radom
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Stal Mielec and Radomiak Radom?
From 8 meetings on record, Stal Mielec have won 3, Radomiak Radom have won 2, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Stal Mielec and Radomiak Radom last play each other?
They last met on 16 May 2025, when Stal Mielec 2-2 Radomiak Radom.
Who has won more matches between Stal Mielec and Radomiak Radom?
Stal Mielec have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Stal Mielec are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 67% of the time.
Radomiak Radom are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 33% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
Clean sheets have been more common than shared scoring for these two — Stal Mielec 33% BTTS, Radomiak Radom 33%. That points toward BTTS No as the trading lean.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 67% (Stal Mielec) and 33% (Radomiak Radom).
On the defensive side: Stal Mielec keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Radomiak Radom in 33%; Stal Mielec have failed to score in 33% of games; Radomiak Radom in 67%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Stal Mielec home games / Radomiak Radom away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Stal Mielec play Radomiak Radom?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 33% of Stal Mielec's recent matches and 33% of Radomiak Radom's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Stal Mielec vs Radomiak Radom usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 67% of Stal Mielec's recent games and 33% of Radomiak Radom's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Stal Mielec and Radomiak Radom tend to score early?
Stal Mielec have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Radomiak Radom in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Stal Mielec defy the odds to beat Radomiak Radom 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Stal Mielec beat Radomiak Radom 1-0 at Stadion MOSiR, Regular Season - 9, in the Ekstraklasa. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Stal Mielec 0.94 xG and Radomiak Radom 1.25 xG, a combined 2.18. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Radomiak Radom landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Stal Mielec attack 0.80 / defence 1.31 against Radomiak Radom attack 0.84 / defence 1.03, drawn from 8/7 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Stal Mielec 27% | Draw 30% | Radomiak Radom 43%, with Radomiak Radom to win its most likely call at 43%. The actual Stal Mielec win had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 37%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 65% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 44% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 36% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Stal Mielec 43%, Radomiak Radom 29%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Stal Mielec's trading profile (7 games, 3 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did not.
Radomiak Radom's trading profile (7 games, 3 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 29% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Radomiak Radom arrived the stronger side — 1.43 PPG against 1.00. Form was overturned, with Stal Mielec winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Stal Mielec (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.33 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.