Stal Mielec 1-0 Motor Lublin – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Stal Mielec at 50%, yet in-form Motor Lublin provide a compelling counter-argument — this Stal Mielec vs Motor Lublin fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Stal Mielec host Motor Lublin at Stadion Miejski w Mielcu in Ekstraklasa (matchday 9). Kick-off is Sunday 22 September 2024 at 12:15 UK time.
Form Guide
Stal Mielec — last 10 games: 1W 3D 6L, averaging 0.60 points per game. Last five: L L W L L. They are averaging 0.70 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%).
Stal Mielec's form when playing at home: 3W 4D 3L across their last 10 home games (1.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from their last 10 home games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. Their home PPG of 1.30 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.60 — Stal Mielec are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.
Across their last 7 games, Motor Lublin have recorded 2W 3D 2L — 1.29 PPG. Last five: D D D L W. Their scoring rate of 0.86 per game is modest, conceding 1.14 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets from 7 games (57%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in just 29% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets.
Motor Lublin away from home: 1W 1D 1L from their last 3 away games — 1.33 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.33 goals scored and 1.67 conceded per game. 2 away clean sheets from their last 3 away games (67%) — they are hard to break down on the road.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Motor Lublin — 0.69 PPG ahead of the hosts (1.29 vs 0.60). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
Trading Patterns
Stal Mielec in-play and half-time data (last 7 games, 3 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 57% of their matches; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 29% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 14% of games; they fail to score in 57% of games.
Motor Lublin in-play and half-time data (last 7 games, 3 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 43% of their matches; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 29% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 14% of games; they keep a clean sheet 57% of the time; they fail to score in 43% of games.
The in-play data supports BTTS No — both teams scored in only 29% of Stal Mielec's games and 29% of Motor Lublin's. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Stal Mielec 14% | Motor Lublin 14%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Stal Mielec 1.50 xG and Motor Lublin 0.97 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Stal Mielec attack 0.810 / defence 1.015 | Motor Lublin attack 0.947 / defence 1.228. League average goals — home 1.509 / away 1.009. Motor Lublin's defence rating of 1.228 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Stal Mielec's projected output up. Data: built from Stal Mielec's last 41 games and Motor Lublin's last 7.
Result probabilities: Stal Mielec 50% | Draw 26% | Motor Lublin 24%. Fair-value odds: Stal Mielec 2.02 | Draw 3.84 | Motor Lublin 4.10. Stal Mielec hold a narrow Poisson edge at 50% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 45% | BTTS Yes probability 48% | Total xG 2.47. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 55% — total xG of 2.47 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 52% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Stal Mielec at 50% — moderate model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Motor Lublin (1.29 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — the model adjusts for opposition strength, which raw form results do not. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Stal Mielec offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.47 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 55% — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 52% on No. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Stal Mielec 40% (last 10 home games) | Motor Lublin 33% (last 3 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Stal Mielec vs Motor Lublin | Competition: Ekstraklasa, matchday 9 | Venue: Stadion Miejski w Mielcu • Kick-off: Sunday 22 September 2024 at 12:15 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Stal Mielec 50% | Draw 26% | Motor Lublin 24% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 45% (Under 55%) | BTTS Yes 48% (No 52%) | xG Stal Mielec 1.50 / Motor Lublin 0.97 • Poisson strength factors: Stal Mielec attack 0.810 / def 1.015 | Motor Lublin attack 0.947 / def 1.228 | league avg home 1.509 / away 1.009 • Poisson stance: Stal Mielec (50%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.50
Stal Mielec xG
Expected Goals
0.97
Motor Lublin xG
48%
BTTS
71%
Over 1.5
45%
Over 2.5
24%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Stal Mielec vs Motor Lublin FAQs
What time does Stal Mielec vs Motor Lublin kick off?
Stal Mielec vs Motor Lublin kicked off at 12:15 UK time on Sunday 22 September 2024 at Stadion Miejski w Mielcu.
What was the final score in Stal Mielec vs Motor Lublin?
Stal Mielec 1 - 0 Motor Lublin.
Where is Stal Mielec vs Motor Lublin being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Miejski w Mielcu.
What competition is Stal Mielec vs Motor Lublin part of?
Stal Mielec vs Motor Lublin is a Ekstraklasa fixture (matchday 9) (Poland).
Who is favourite to win Stal Mielec vs Motor Lublin?
Our statistical model gives Stal Mielec a 50% chance of winning, Motor Lublin a 24% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Stal Mielec the favourite.
Will both teams score in Stal Mielec vs Motor Lublin?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both Stal Mielec and Motor Lublin will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (52%).
Will Stal Mielec vs Motor Lublin have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 45%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (55%).
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Stal Mielec's attack rating (0.81) and Motor Lublin's defence rating (1.23), the model arrives at 1.50 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Motor Lublin's attack versus Stal Mielec's defence, projects 0.97 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Stal Mielec's last 41 games and Motor Lublin's last 7 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.9%. Close behind: 1-0 (11.1%), 0-0 (10.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Stal Mielec Win
50%
2.02
26%
3.84
24%
4.10
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
12.7%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.3%
Draw
2 – 0
9.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.50
Stal Mielec xG
Total xG
2.47
0.97
Motor Lublin xG
2.02
50%
Home win
3.84
26%
Draw
4.10
24%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
45%
Over 2.5
2.22
55%
Under 2.5
1.82
24%
Over 3.5
4.17
76%
Under 3.5
1.32
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.07
52%
BTTS No
1.93
Clean Sheet
38%
2.64
22%
4.49
Win to Nil
19%
5.31
5%
18.41
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.5 | 8.2 | 4.0 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.7 | 12.3 | 6.0 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.5 | 9.2 | 4.5 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.8 | 4.6 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.8 | 1.7 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Stal Mielec vs Motor Lublin Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Stal Mielec vs Motor Lublin?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.9%.
How many goals are Stal Mielec and Motor Lublin expected to score?
The model projects 1.50 expected goals for Stal Mielec and 0.97 for Motor Lublin, a combined total of 2.47.
How confident is the prediction model for Stal Mielec vs Motor Lublin?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 50%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Stal Mielec's recent record stands at 1W 1D 5L from 7 games, a 0.57 PPG return, with L-L-W-L-L in the last five.
Motor Lublin, meanwhile, have gone 2W 3D 2L across 7 games — 1.29 PPG, with D-D-D-L-W in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours Motor Lublin by 0.72 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Stal Mielec heading into this one.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Stal Mielec have managed 1W 0D 2L from their last 3 home games — 1.00 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 0.57 PPG overall — Stal Mielec are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Motor Lublin's away record stands at 1W 1D 1L across their last 3 away games, a 1.33 PPG haul.
The Goals Picture
Stal Mielec are averaging 0.57 goals scored and 1.29 conceded per game recently; Motor Lublin are on 0.86 scored and 1.14 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Stal Mielec have seen both teams score in 29% of their recent games; Motor Lublin in 29%.
Defensively: Motor Lublin in 57% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 7 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Stal Mielec
Early Season
Motor Lublin
Early Season
Stal Mielec (Home) vs Motor Lublin (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Stal Mielec
Early Season
Motor Lublin
Early Season
❓ Stal Mielec vs Motor Lublin Form FAQs
What form are Stal Mielec and Motor Lublin in coming into this match?
Stal Mielec have gone 1W 1D 5L in their last 7 games (0.57 PPG), while Motor Lublin have gone 2W 3D 2L in their last 7 (1.29 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Stal Mielec at home or Motor Lublin away?
Motor Lublin's away record (1.33 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Stal Mielec at home: 1.00 PPG; Motor Lublin away: 1.33 PPG.
Have Stal Mielec or Motor Lublin been keeping clean sheets recently?
Stal Mielec have kept a clean sheet in 14% of their recent games, Motor Lublin in 57%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 2 H2H matches in our data, going back to September 2024. All of them came in Ekstraklasa. The most recent in our data was on 30 March 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
1
Stal Mielec
0
Draws
1
Motor Lublin
Recent Meetings
❓ Stal Mielec vs Motor Lublin H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Stal Mielec and Motor Lublin?
Across the 2 head-to-head matches in our data, Stal Mielec have won 1, Motor Lublin have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Stal Mielec and Motor Lublin last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 30 March 2025: Motor Lublin 4-1 Stal Mielec.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Stal Mielec are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches.
Motor Lublin see a goal before the break in 33% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
Clean sheets have been more common than shared scoring for these two — Stal Mielec 0% BTTS, Motor Lublin 33%. That points toward BTTS No as the trading lean.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 0% for Stal Mielec and 33% for Motor Lublin.
On the defensive side: Stal Mielec keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Motor Lublin in 67%; Stal Mielec have failed to score in 67% of games; Motor Lublin in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Stal Mielec home games / Motor Lublin away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Stal Mielec vs Motor Lublin Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Stal Mielec and Motor Lublin matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 0% of Stal Mielec's recent matches and 33% of Motor Lublin's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Stal Mielec and Motor Lublin matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 0% of Stal Mielec's recent games and 33% of Motor Lublin's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Stal Mielec and Motor Lublin matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 67% of Stal Mielec's recent matches and 33% of Motor Lublin's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Stal Mielec edge out Motor Lublin 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Stal Mielec beat Motor Lublin 1-0 at Stadion Miejski w Mielcu, Regular Season - 9, in the Ekstraklasa. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Stal Mielec 1.50 xG and Motor Lublin 0.97 xG, a combined 2.47. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Motor Lublin landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Stal Mielec attack 0.81 / defence 1.01 against Motor Lublin attack 0.95 / defence 1.23, drawn from 41/7 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Stal Mielec 50% | Draw 26% | Motor Lublin 24%, with Stal Mielec to win its most likely call at 50%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 71% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 14% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Stal Mielec 14%, Motor Lublin 14%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 29%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Stal Mielec's trading profile (7 games, 3 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 29% of their matches — today it did not.
Motor Lublin's trading profile (7 games, 3 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 29% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 57% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 43% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Motor Lublin arrived the stronger side — 1.29 PPG against 0.57. Form was overturned, with Stal Mielec winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Stal Mielec (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.00 average — tighter than their form line. Motor Lublin (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.33 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.