Stal Mielec 0-1 Gornik Zabrze – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Stal Mielec at 47%, yet other data sources diverge — this Stal Mielec vs Gornik Zabrze fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Stal Mielec host Gornik Zabrze at Stadion Miejski w Mielcu in Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 22. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 26 February 2023 at 11:30 UTC.
Form Guide
Stal Mielec — All Games: 3W 4D 3L from 10 Ekstraklasa outings this season, averaging 1.30 points per game. Last five: D D L D L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 0.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for Stal Mielec, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Stal Mielec have posted 4W 4D 2L at Stadion Miejski w Mielcu — 1.60 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Stadion Miejski w Mielcu. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Gornik Zabrze stand at 2W 3D 5L from 10 Ekstraklasa matches — 0.90 PPG. Last five: L L D D L. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Gornik Zabrze, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Gornik Zabrze have gone 3W 3D 4L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.30 PPG (Stal Mielec) versus 0.90 (Gornik Zabrze). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 1 wins apiece for Stal Mielec, 2 for Gornik Zabrze and 0 shared spoils from 3 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 3 previous meetings have averaged 2.7 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 13 Aug 2022, ended 3–1 with Stal Mielec winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
Stal Mielec in-play and half-time data (55 games, 27 at home): they score before half-time in 63% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 76% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 53% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 41% of games (home games); they fail to score in 31% of games.
Gornik Zabrze in-play and half-time data (55 games, 27 at away): they score before half-time in 89% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 74% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 70% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Stal Mielec 51% versus Gornik Zabrze 66%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Stal Mielec 46% | Gornik Zabrze 62%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Stal Mielec 1.32 xG and Gornik Zabrze 0.84 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Stal Mielec attack 0.919 / defence 0.763 | Gornik Zabrze attack 0.971 / defence 1.155. League average goals — home 1.242 / away 1.132. Stal Mielec's defence rating of 0.763 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 55 Stal Mielec games / 55 Gornik Zabrze games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Stal Mielec 47% | Draw 31% | Gornik Zabrze 23%. Fair-value odds: Stal Mielec 2.13 | Draw 3.23 | Gornik Zabrze 4.35. Stal Mielec hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (31%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 37% | BTTS probability 43% | Total xG 2.16. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 63% — total xG of 2.16 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 43% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Stal Mielec at 47% — moderate model lean. With a 31% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Stal Mielec offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.16 combined xG gives a 37% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 43% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Stal Mielec 30% | Gornik Zabrze 60% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Stal Mielec vs Gornik Zabrze | Competition: Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 22 | Venue: Stadion Miejski w Mielcu • Kick-off: Sunday 26 Feb 2023, 11:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Stal Mielec 47% | Draw 31% | Gornik Zabrze 23% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 37% | BTTS 43% | xG Stal Mielec 1.32 / Gornik Zabrze 0.84 • Poisson strength factors: Stal Mielec attack 0.919 / def 0.763 | Gornik Zabrze attack 0.971 / def 1.155 | league avg home 1.242 / away 1.132 • Poisson stance: Stal Mielec (47%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.32
Stal Mielec xG
Expected Goals
0.84
Gornik Zabrze xG
43%
BTTS
65%
Over 1.5
37%
Over 2.5
17%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Stal Mielec vs Gornik Zabrze kick off?
Stal Mielec vs Gornik Zabrze kicked off at 11:30 on Sunday 26 February 2023 at Stadion Miejski w Mielcu.
What was the final score in Stal Mielec vs Gornik Zabrze?
Stal Mielec 0 - 1 Gornik Zabrze.
Where is Stal Mielec vs Gornik Zabrze being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Miejski w Mielcu.
What competition is Stal Mielec vs Gornik Zabrze part of?
Stal Mielec vs Gornik Zabrze is a Regular Season - 22 fixture in the Ekstraklasa (Poland).
Who is favourite to win Stal Mielec vs Gornik Zabrze?
Our statistical model gives Stal Mielec a 47% chance of winning, Gornik Zabrze a 23% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Stal Mielec the favourite.
Will both teams score in Stal Mielec vs Gornik Zabrze?
Our model estimates a 43% probability that both Stal Mielec and Gornik Zabrze will score (BTTS).
Will Stal Mielec vs Gornik Zabrze have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 37%.
What is the head-to-head record between Stal Mielec and Gornik Zabrze?
Record (3 meetings): Stal Mielec 1W | Draws 0 | Gornik Zabrze 2W.
What form are Stal Mielec and Gornik Zabrze in?
Stal Mielec (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 0.80 | L5 D-D-L-D-L. Gornik Zabrze (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-L-D-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Stal Mielec's attacking strength (0.92x league average) is weighed against Gornik Zabrze's defensive record (1.16x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.32. The same calculation in reverse, Gornik Zabrze's attack versus Stal Mielec's defence, projects 0.84 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 55/55 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.5%. Close behind: 1-0 (13.6%), 0-0 (13.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 41% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Stal Mielec Win
47%
2.14
31%
3.28
23%
4.41
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
15.3%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.8%
Draw
0 – 0
11.6%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.32
Stal Mielec xG
Total xG
2.16
0.84
Gornik Zabrze xG
2.14
47%
Home win
3.28
31%
Draw
4.41
23%
Away win
Goals Markets
63%
Over 1.5
1.59
37%
Under 1.5
2.70
37%
Over 2.5
2.70
63%
Under 2.5
1.59
17%
Over 3.5
5.88
83%
Under 3.5
1.20
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
43%
BTTS Yes
2.34
57%
BTTS No
1.74
Clean Sheet
43%
2.31
27%
3.74
Win to Nil
20%
4.94
6%
16.47
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.6 | 9.7 | 4.1 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 15.3 | 12.8 | 5.4 | 1.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.1 | 8.4 | 3.5 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 4.4 | 3.7 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.5 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Stal Mielec vs Gornik Zabrze?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.5%.
How many goals are Stal Mielec and Gornik Zabrze expected to score?
The model projects 1.32 expected goals for Stal Mielec and 0.84 for Gornik Zabrze, a combined total of 2.16.
How confident is the prediction model for Stal Mielec vs Gornik Zabrze?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 47%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 55 outings, Stal Mielec have picked up 1.20 PPG on a 17W 15D 23L record — D-D-L-D-L across the most recent five. The sample for Stal Mielec is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Gornik Zabrze's form line: 18W 15D 22L from 55 games, 1.25 PPG, last five L-L-D-D-L. The sample for Gornik Zabrze is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Stal Mielec on 1.20 PPG, Gornik Zabrze on 1.25. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, Stal Mielec have posted 1.52 PPG from 27 outings (11W 8D 8L).
On the road, Gornik Zabrze have gone 9W 6D 12L from 27 away games — 1.22 PPG when travelling.
Goals in Recent Form
Stal Mielec are averaging 1.18 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game recently; Gornik Zabrze are on 1.49 scored and 1.60 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Gornik Zabrze in 65%.
Last 55 Results — Ekstraklasa
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Stal Mielec
Blended
Gornik Zabrze
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Stal Mielec and Gornik Zabrze in coming into this match?
Stal Mielec have gone 17W 15D 23L in their last 55 games (1.20 PPG), while Gornik Zabrze have gone 18W 15D 22L in their last 55 (1.25 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Stal Mielec at home or Gornik Zabrze away?
Stal Mielec's home record (1.52 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Stal Mielec at home: 1.52 PPG; Gornik Zabrze away: 1.22 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
8 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Ekstraklasa. It has been a while since the last meeting — 22 April 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
Stal Mielec's record when hosting Gornik Zabrze specifically: 1W 1D 2L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
2
Stal Mielec
2
Draws
4
Gornik Zabrze
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Stal Mielec and Gornik Zabrze?
From 8 meetings on record, Stal Mielec have won 2, Gornik Zabrze have won 4, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Stal Mielec and Gornik Zabrze last play each other?
They last met on 22 April 2025, when Stal Mielec 0-0 Gornik Zabrze.
Who has won more matches between Stal Mielec and Gornik Zabrze?
Gornik Zabrze have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Stal Mielec are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 63% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 41% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Gornik Zabrze are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 89% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 15% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Stal Mielec 44%, Gornik Zabrze 74% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 41% (Stal Mielec) and 70% (Gornik Zabrze). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 11% and 41% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Stal Mielec keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Stal Mielec have failed to score in 33% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Stal Mielec home games / Gornik Zabrze away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Stal Mielec play Gornik Zabrze?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 44% of Stal Mielec's games and 74% of Gornik Zabrze's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Stal Mielec vs Gornik Zabrze usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 41% of Stal Mielec's matches and 70% of Gornik Zabrze's.
Do Stal Mielec and Gornik Zabrze tend to score early?
Stal Mielec have had a goal before half-time in 63% of their recent matches, Gornik Zabrze in 89% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Gornik Zabrze defy the odds to beat Stal Mielec 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Gornik Zabrze beat Stal Mielec 0-1 at Stadion Miejski w Mielcu, Regular Season - 22, in the Ekstraklasa. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Stal Mielec 1.32 xG and Gornik Zabrze 0.84 xG, a combined 2.16. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Stal Mielec fell 1.3 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Stal Mielec attack 0.92 / defence 0.76 against Gornik Zabrze attack 0.97 / defence 1.16, drawn from 55/55 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Stal Mielec 47% | Draw 31% | Gornik Zabrze 23%, with Stal Mielec to win its most likely call at 47%. Instead the game produced a Gornik Zabrze win, an outcome the model had rated at just 23% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 37%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 65% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 43% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Stal Mielec 46%, Gornik Zabrze 62%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Stal Mielec's trading profile (55 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 31% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Gornik Zabrze's trading profile (55 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 66% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Stal Mielec 1.20 PPG, Gornik Zabrze 1.25 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Gornik Zabrze win broke the near-deadlock. Stal Mielec (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.26 scoring average — below par going forward. Gornik Zabrze (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.81 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.