Raków Częstochowa vs Widzew Łódź – Pre-Match Analysis

Poisson model rates Widzew Łódź at 44%, yet other data sources diverge — this Raków Częstochowa vs Widzew Łódź fixture contains genuine analytical tension.

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Fixture Analysis

It is a Ekstraklasa clash, Regular Season - 15 as Raków Częstochowa welcome Widzew Łódź to zondacrypto Arena. Kick-off is set for Saturday 21 November 2026 at 17:00 UTC.

Recent Form

Across all Ekstraklasa games this season, Raków Częstochowa have gone 4W 0D 6L from 10 outings — a 1.20 PPG return. Last five: L L L L L. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.70 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Raków Częstochowa have played only a handful of Ekstraklasa games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.

In front of their own supporters this season, Raków Częstochowa have posted 5W 1D 4L at zondacrypto Arena — 1.60 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.

Widzew Łódź — All Games: 3W 3D 4L from 10 Ekstraklasa fixtures this season — 1.20 PPG. Last five: D W L D L. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.40. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Widzew Łódź have played only a handful of Ekstraklasa games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.

On the road, Widzew Łódź have gone 2W 4D 4L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.

The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Raków Częstochowa 1.20 PPG, Widzew Łódź 1.20 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.

H2H

The fixture history tells a clear story: Raków Częstochowa have dominated this rivalry, winning 5 of 8 past contests while Widzew Łódź have managed just 0 wins.

The 8 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 4 Apr 2026, ended 1–1 with a draw.

The historical record gives Raków Częstochowa a meaningful edge here — 5 wins from 8 meetings is the kind of ledger that should not be discounted when the form picture is inconclusive. Even away from home, the visitors have struggled to impose themselves in this fixture.

Trading Patterns

Raków Częstochowa in-play and half-time data (39 games, 20 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 45% of games (home games).

Widzew Łódź in-play and half-time data (39 games, 20 at away): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; BTTS occurs in 45% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 45% of games (away games).

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Raków Częstochowa 62% versus Widzew Łódź 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Raków Częstochowa 54% | Widzew Łódź 51%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Raków Częstochowa 1.38 xG and Widzew Łódź 1.76 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Raków Częstochowa attack 0.987 / defence 1.325 | Widzew Łódź attack 1.023 / defence 0.905. League average goals — home 1.541 / away 1.297. Data: 39 Raków Częstochowa games / 40 Widzew Łódź games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Raków Częstochowa 28% | Draw 29% | Widzew Łódź 44%. Fair-value odds: Raków Częstochowa 3.57 | Draw 3.45 | Widzew Łódź 2.27. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 61% | BTTS probability 64% | Total xG 3.13. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 61% — the 3.13 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 64% reflects that both xG figures (1.38 / 1.76) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.

Our Verdict

Poisson rates Widzew Łódź as the most likely outcome at 44% — marginal model lean. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Widzew Łódź offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

Poisson projects 3.13 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 61% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.

The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 64%. This conflicts with form data: Raków Częstochowa 50% | Widzew Łódź 30% from recent games — a notable divergence.

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