Raków Częstochowa 2-1 Stal Mielec – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Raków Częstochowa at 61% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Raków Częstochowa vs Stal Mielec encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Miejski Stadion Piłkarski Raków plays host to Raków Częstochowa versus Stal Mielec in Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 25. Kick-off: Monday 14 March 2022 at 17:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Raków Częstochowa have collected 2.20 PPG across 10 Ekstraklasa outings this season: 7W 1D 2L. Last five: W W D W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.90 goals per game, with 0.60 conceded. Defensively, conceding just 0.60 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 7 clean sheets from 10 games (70%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for Raków Częstochowa, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Miejski Stadion Piłkarski Raków, Raków Częstochowa have gone 7W 2D 1L this season (10 games, 2.30 PPG). They are averaging 2.30 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 7 clean sheets from 10 home games (70%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Miejski Stadion Piłkarski Raków. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Stal Mielec (all games): 3W 3D 4L across 10 Ekstraklasa outings this term — 1.20 points per game. Last five: L W L L D. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Stal Mielec, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Stal Mielec's away record: 2W 4D 4L from 10 road trips in Ekstraklasa this season (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The points-per-game gap of 1.00 in Raków Częstochowa's favour (2.20 vs 1.20) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 1 meetings: Raków Częstochowa 1W, Stal Mielec 0W, 0D.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.0 per game across 1 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 19 Sep 2021, ended 3–0 with Raków Częstochowa winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Data
Raków Częstochowa goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (24 games, 11 at home): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; BTTS occurs in 36% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 46% of the time.
Stal Mielec goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (24 games, 11 at away): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 36% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Raków Częstochowa 46% versus Stal Mielec 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Raków Częstochowa 58% | Stal Mielec 42%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Raków Częstochowa 1.75 xG and Stal Mielec 0.74 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Raków Częstochowa attack 1.331 / defence 0.895 | Stal Mielec attack 0.816 / defence 1.256. League average goals — home 1.048 / away 1.015. Raków Częstochowa carry an above-average attack strength of 1.331 — their λ of 1.75 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Stal Mielec bring a strong defensive rating of 1.256 — this is suppressing Raków Częstochowa's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 24 Raków Częstochowa games / 24 Stal Mielec games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Raków Częstochowa 61% | Draw 25% | Stal Mielec 14%. Fair-value odds: Raków Częstochowa 1.64 | Draw 4.00 | Stal Mielec 7.14. The model has a clear lean to Raków Częstochowa (61%) — a 47pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 45% | BTTS probability 44% | Total xG 2.49. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 55% — total xG of 2.49 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 44% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Raków Częstochowa as the most likely outcome at 61% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 25% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 2.49 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 45% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
Poisson assigns a 44% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Raków Częstochowa 30% | Stal Mielec 60% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Raków Częstochowa vs Stal Mielec | Competition: Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 25 | Venue: Miejski Stadion Piłkarski Raków • Kick-off: Monday 14 Mar 2022, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Raków Częstochowa 61% | Draw 25% | Stal Mielec 14% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 45% | BTTS 44% | xG Raków Częstochowa 1.75 / Stal Mielec 0.74 • Poisson strength factors: Raków Częstochowa attack 1.331 / def 0.895 | Stal Mielec attack 0.816 / def 1.256 | league avg home 1.048 / away 1.015 • Poisson stance: Raków Częstochowa (61%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.75
Raków Częstochowa xG
Expected Goals
0.74
Stal Mielec xG
44%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
45%
Over 2.5
24%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Raków Częstochowa vs Stal Mielec kick off?
Raków Częstochowa vs Stal Mielec kicked off at 17:00 on Monday 14 March 2022 at Miejski Stadion Piłkarski Raków.
What was the final score in Raków Częstochowa vs Stal Mielec?
Raków Częstochowa 2 - 1 Stal Mielec.
Where is Raków Częstochowa vs Stal Mielec being played?
The match is being played at Miejski Stadion Piłkarski Raków.
What competition is Raków Częstochowa vs Stal Mielec part of?
Raków Częstochowa vs Stal Mielec is a Regular Season - 25 fixture in the Ekstraklasa (Poland).
Who is favourite to win Raków Częstochowa vs Stal Mielec?
Our statistical model gives Raków Częstochowa a 61% chance of winning, Stal Mielec a 14% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Raków Częstochowa the favourite.
Will both teams score in Raków Częstochowa vs Stal Mielec?
Our model estimates a 44% probability that both Raków Częstochowa and Stal Mielec will score (BTTS).
Will Raków Częstochowa vs Stal Mielec have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 45%.
What is the head-to-head record between Raków Częstochowa and Stal Mielec?
Record (1 meetings): Raków Częstochowa 1W | Draws 0 | Stal Mielec 0W.
What form are Raków Częstochowa and Stal Mielec in?
Raków Częstochowa (all comps): 7W-1D-2L in 10 | 2.20 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 0.60 | L5 W-W-D-W-W. Stal Mielec (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-W-L-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Raków Częstochowa's attack rating (1.33) and Stal Mielec's defence rating (1.26), the model arrives at 1.75 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Stal Mielec's attack (0.82x) against Raków Częstochowa's defence (0.90x) — and the away total comes out at 0.74.
These ratings are built from 24/24 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.1%. Close behind: 2-0 (12.7%), 1-1 (12.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 38% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Raków Częstochowa Win
61%
1.65
25%
4.01
14%
6.92
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.5%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
12.7%
Home win
1 – 1
10.7%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.75
Raków Częstochowa xG
Total xG
2.49
0.74
Stal Mielec xG
1.65
61%
Home win
4.01
25%
Draw
6.92
14%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
45%
Over 2.5
2.22
55%
Under 2.5
1.82
24%
Over 3.5
4.17
76%
Under 3.5
1.32
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
44%
BTTS Yes
2.26
56%
BTTS No
1.79
Clean Sheet
48%
2.10
17%
5.77
Win to Nil
29%
3.46
3%
39.90
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.3 | 6.1 | 2.3 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 14.5 | 10.7 | 4.0 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 12.7 | 9.4 | 3.5 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 7.4 | 5.5 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 3.2 | 2.4 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 1.1 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Raków Częstochowa vs Stal Mielec?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.1%.
How many goals are Raków Częstochowa and Stal Mielec expected to score?
The model projects 1.75 expected goals for Raków Częstochowa and 0.74 for Stal Mielec, a combined total of 2.49.
How confident is the prediction model for Raków Częstochowa vs Stal Mielec?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 61%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Raków Częstochowa's recent record stands at 14W 6D 4L from 24 games, a 2.00 PPG return, with W-W-D-W-W in the last five. The sample for Raków Częstochowa is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Stal Mielec, meanwhile, have gone 8W 8D 8L across 24 games — 1.33 PPG, with L-W-L-L-D in their last five. The sample for Stal Mielec is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Raków Częstochowa by 0.67 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Stal Mielec heading into this one.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Raków Częstochowa have managed 7W 3D 1L from 11 games — 2.18 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Stal Mielec's away record stands at 2W 5D 4L across 11 trips, a 1.00 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Raków Częstochowa come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Raków Częstochowa are averaging 1.79 goals scored and 0.96 conceded per game recently; Stal Mielec are on 1.21 scored and 1.33 conceded.
Defensively: Raków Częstochowa have kept a clean sheet in 46% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 24 Results — Ekstraklasa
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Raków Częstochowa
Blended
Stal Mielec
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Raków Częstochowa and Stal Mielec in coming into this match?
Raków Częstochowa have gone 14W 6D 4L in their last 24 games (2.00 PPG), while Stal Mielec have gone 8W 8D 8L in their last 24 (1.33 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Raków Częstochowa at home or Stal Mielec away?
Raków Częstochowa's home record (2.18 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Raków Częstochowa at home: 2.18 PPG; Stal Mielec away: 1.00 PPG.
Have Raków Częstochowa or Stal Mielec been keeping clean sheets recently?
Raków Częstochowa have kept a clean sheet in 46% of their recent games, Stal Mielec in 25%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 8 times that we have on record, stretching back to September 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 3 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Ekstraklasa. It has been a while since the last meeting — 3 May 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
Raków Częstochowa go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Raków Częstochowa won 0-3 on 19 Sep 2021, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Raków Częstochowa have gone 4W 0D 0L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Stal Mielec — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
6
Raków Częstochowa
2
Draws
0
Stal Mielec
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Raków Częstochowa and Stal Mielec?
From 8 meetings on record, Raków Częstochowa have won 6, Stal Mielec have won 0, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Raków Częstochowa and Stal Mielec last play each other?
They last met on 3 May 2025, when Stal Mielec 0-2 Raków Częstochowa.
Who has won more matches between Raków Częstochowa and Stal Mielec?
Raków Częstochowa have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Raków Częstochowa are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 54% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 18% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Stal Mielec are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 18% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 18% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Raków Częstochowa 36%, Stal Mielec 64% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 64% (Raków Częstochowa) and 36% (Stal Mielec).
On the defensive side: Raków Częstochowa keep a clean sheet in 64% of their matches; Stal Mielec in 27%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Raków Częstochowa home games / Stal Mielec away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Raków Częstochowa play Stal Mielec?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 36% of Raków Częstochowa's recent matches and 64% of Stal Mielec's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Raków Częstochowa vs Stal Mielec usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 64% of Raków Częstochowa's recent games and 36% of Stal Mielec's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Raków Częstochowa and Stal Mielec tend to score early?
Raków Częstochowa have had a goal before half-time in 64% of their recent matches, Stal Mielec in 73% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Raków Częstochowa edge out Stal Mielec 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Raków Częstochowa beat Stal Mielec 2-1 at Miejski Stadion Piłkarski Raków, Regular Season - 25, in the Ekstraklasa. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Raków Częstochowa 1.75 xG and Stal Mielec 0.74 xG, a combined 2.49. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Raków Częstochowa attack 1.33 / defence 0.90 against Stal Mielec attack 0.82 / defence 1.26, drawn from 24/24 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Raków Częstochowa 61% | Draw 25% | Stal Mielec 14%, with Raków Częstochowa to win its most likely call at 61%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 72% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 44% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Raków Częstochowa 58%, Stal Mielec 42%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Raków Częstochowa's trading profile (24 games, 11 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 46% of the time, and conceded here.
Stal Mielec's trading profile (24 games, 11 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Raków Częstochowa arrived the stronger side — 2.00 PPG against 1.33. The form guide was vindicated by the result.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.