Raków Częstochowa 1-0 Pogon Szczecin – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Raków Częstochowa at 45%, yet other data sources diverge — this Raków Częstochowa vs Pogon Szczecin fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Ekstraklasa clash, Regular Season - 6 as Raków Częstochowa welcome Pogon Szczecin to Miejski Stadion Piłkarski Raków. Kick-off is set for Wednesday 31 August 2022 at 17:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Raków Częstochowa stand at 6W 2D 2L from 10 Ekstraklasa matches — 2.00 PPG. Last five: W W L D W. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 1.00 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Raków Częstochowa have played only a handful of Ekstraklasa games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Raków Częstochowa at Miejski Stadion Piłkarski Raków this season: 6W 4D 0L from 10 home games — 2.20 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Pogon Szczecin — All Games: 5W 4D 1L from 10 Ekstraklasa fixtures this season — 1.90 PPG. Last five: L W W D W. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 1.00. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Pogon Szczecin have played only a handful of Ekstraklasa games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Pogon Szczecin's away record: 5W 4D 1L from 10 road trips in Ekstraklasa this season (1.90 PPG). Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The form comparison is too close to call — 2.00 PPG (Raków Częstochowa) versus 1.90 (Pogon Szczecin). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Raków Częstochowa register both teams scoring in 70% of relevant matches, Pogon Szczecin in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 2 previous meetings, Raków Częstochowa have won 1, Pogon Szczecin 0, with 1 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The last 2 meetings have been tight affairs, averaging just 1.5 goals per game. That low-scoring pattern is a meaningful historical input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent clash, on 20 Apr 2022, ended 2–1 with Raków Częstochowa winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.5 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Data
Raków Częstochowa trading profile (39 games, 19 at home): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (home games).
Pogon Szczecin trading profile (39 games, 19 at away): they score before half-time in 63% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; they lead at the break 51% of the time; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 32% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Raków Częstochowa 51% versus Pogon Szczecin 64%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Raków Częstochowa 56% | Pogon Szczecin 56%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Raków Częstochowa 1.55 xG and Pogon Szczecin 1.22 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Raków Częstochowa attack 1.244 / defence 0.973 | Pogon Szczecin attack 1.030 / defence 0.979. League average goals — home 1.274 / away 1.214. Data: 39 Raków Częstochowa games / 40 Pogon Szczecin games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Raków Częstochowa 45% | Draw 25% | Pogon Szczecin 30%. Fair-value odds: Raków Częstochowa 2.22 | Draw 4.00 | Pogon Szczecin 3.33. Raków Częstochowa hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 52% | BTTS probability 55% | Total xG 2.77. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 52%/48% — the total xG of 2.77 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 55% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Raków Częstochowa at 45% — moderate model lean. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Raków Częstochowa offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.77 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 52% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 55%. Form rates corroborate: Raków Częstochowa 70% | Pogon Szczecin 60% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Raków Częstochowa vs Pogon Szczecin | Competition: Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 6 | Venue: Miejski Stadion Piłkarski Raków • Kick-off: Wednesday 31 Aug 2022, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Raków Częstochowa 45% | Draw 25% | Pogon Szczecin 30% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 52% | BTTS 55% | xG Raków Częstochowa 1.55 / Pogon Szczecin 1.22 • Poisson strength factors: Raków Częstochowa attack 1.244 / def 0.973 | Pogon Szczecin attack 1.030 / def 0.979 | league avg home 1.274 / away 1.214 • Poisson stance: Raków Częstochowa (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.55
Raków Częstochowa xG
Expected Goals
1.22
Pogon Szczecin xG
55%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
52%
Over 2.5
30%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Raków Częstochowa vs Pogon Szczecin kick off?
Raków Częstochowa vs Pogon Szczecin kicked off at 17:00 on Wednesday 31 August 2022 at Miejski Stadion Piłkarski Raków.
What was the final score in Raków Częstochowa vs Pogon Szczecin?
Raków Częstochowa 1 - 0 Pogon Szczecin.
Where is Raków Częstochowa vs Pogon Szczecin being played?
The match is being played at Miejski Stadion Piłkarski Raków.
What competition is Raków Częstochowa vs Pogon Szczecin part of?
Raków Częstochowa vs Pogon Szczecin is a Regular Season - 6 fixture in the Ekstraklasa (Poland).
Who is favourite to win Raków Częstochowa vs Pogon Szczecin?
Our statistical model gives Raków Częstochowa a 45% chance of winning, Pogon Szczecin a 30% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Raków Częstochowa the favourite.
Will both teams score in Raków Częstochowa vs Pogon Szczecin?
Our model estimates a 55% probability that both Raków Częstochowa and Pogon Szczecin will score (BTTS).
Will Raków Częstochowa vs Pogon Szczecin have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 52%.
What is the head-to-head record between Raków Częstochowa and Pogon Szczecin?
Record (2 meetings): Raków Częstochowa 1W | Draws 1 | Pogon Szczecin 0W.
What form are Raków Częstochowa and Pogon Szczecin in?
Raków Częstochowa (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-W-L-D-W. Pogon Szczecin (all comps): 5W-4D-1L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.00 | L5 L-W-W-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Raków Częstochowa's attack at 1.24x the league average against Pogon Szczecin's defence at 0.98x — combine the two and it projects 1.55 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Pogon Szczecin's attack versus Raków Częstochowa's defence, projects 1.22 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 39/40 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.4% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.2%), 1-0 (8.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Raków Częstochowa Win
45%
2.22
25%
3.99
30%
3.35
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.8%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
9.7%
Home win
2 – 1
9.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.55
Raków Częstochowa xG
Total xG
2.77
1.22
Pogon Szczecin xG
2.22
45%
Home win
3.99
25%
Draw
3.35
30%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
52%
Over 2.5
1.92
48%
Under 2.5
2.08
30%
Over 3.5
3.33
70%
Under 3.5
1.43
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
55%
BTTS Yes
1.80
45%
BTTS No
2.24
Clean Sheet
30%
3.37
21%
4.72
Win to Nil
13%
7.48
6%
15.80
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.3 | 7.6 | 4.6 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 9.7 | 11.8 | 7.2 | 2.9 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.6 | 9.2 | 5.6 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.9 | 4.8 | 2.9 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.5 | 1.8 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Raków Częstochowa vs Pogon Szczecin?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.4%.
How many goals are Raków Częstochowa and Pogon Szczecin expected to score?
The model projects 1.55 expected goals for Raków Częstochowa and 1.22 for Pogon Szczecin, a combined total of 2.77.
How confident is the prediction model for Raków Częstochowa vs Pogon Szczecin?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Raków Częstochowa's recent record stands at 23W 10D 6L from 39 games, a 2.03 PPG return, with W-W-L-D-W in the last five. It's still early in the season for Raków Częstochowa, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Pogon Szczecin, meanwhile, have gone 21W 12D 6L across 39 games — 1.92 PPG, with L-W-W-D-W in their last five. It's still early in the season for Pogon Szczecin, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: Raków Częstochowa on 2.03 PPG, Pogon Szczecin on 1.92. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Raków Częstochowa have managed 12W 6D 1L from 19 games — 2.21 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Pogon Szczecin's away record stands at 8W 8D 3L across 19 trips, a 1.68 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Raków Częstochowa come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Raków Częstochowa are averaging 1.79 goals scored and 0.92 conceded per game recently; Pogon Szczecin are on 1.85 scored and 0.95 conceded. Pogon Szczecin's attacking output running into Raków Częstochowa's solid defensive record is the key goals-market tension in this fixture.
On BTTS specifically: Pogon Szczecin in 64%.
Defensively: Raków Częstochowa have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 39 Results — Ekstraklasa
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Raków Częstochowa
Early Season
Pogon Szczecin
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Raków Częstochowa and Pogon Szczecin in coming into this match?
Raków Częstochowa have gone 23W 10D 6L in their last 39 games (2.03 PPG), while Pogon Szczecin have gone 21W 12D 6L in their last 39 (1.92 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Raków Częstochowa at home or Pogon Szczecin away?
Raków Częstochowa's home record (2.21 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Raków Częstochowa at home: 2.21 PPG; Pogon Szczecin away: 1.68 PPG.
Have Raków Częstochowa or Pogon Szczecin been keeping clean sheets recently?
Raków Częstochowa have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their recent games, Pogon Szczecin in 28%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Raków Częstochowa and Pogon Szczecin runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to November 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Ekstraklasa. They last met on 8 March 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
Raków Częstochowa's record when hosting Pogon Szczecin specifically: 4W 1D 0L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
6
Raków Częstochowa
2
Draws
2
Pogon Szczecin
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Raków Częstochowa and Pogon Szczecin?
From 10 meetings on record, Raków Częstochowa have won 6, Pogon Szczecin have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Raków Częstochowa and Pogon Szczecin last play each other?
They last met on 8 March 2026, when Raków Częstochowa 2-0 Pogon Szczecin.
Who has won more matches between Raków Częstochowa and Pogon Szczecin?
Raków Częstochowa have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Raków Częstochowa are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 47% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 16% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 10% of those situations.
Pogon Szczecin are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 63% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 37% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Raków Częstochowa 53%, Pogon Szczecin 53% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 58% (Raków Częstochowa) and 32% (Pogon Szczecin).
On the defensive side: Raków Częstochowa keep a clean sheet in 47% of their matches; Pogon Szczecin in 37%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Raków Częstochowa home games / Pogon Szczecin away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Raków Częstochowa play Pogon Szczecin?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 53% of Raków Częstochowa's recent matches and 53% of Pogon Szczecin's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Raków Częstochowa vs Pogon Szczecin usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 58% of Raków Częstochowa's recent games and 32% of Pogon Szczecin's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Raków Częstochowa and Pogon Szczecin tend to score early?
Raków Częstochowa have had a goal before half-time in 68% of their recent matches, Pogon Szczecin in 63% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Raków Częstochowa edge out Pogon Szczecin 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Raków Częstochowa beat Pogon Szczecin 1-0 at Miejski Stadion Piłkarski Raków, Regular Season - 6, in the Ekstraklasa. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Raków Częstochowa 1.55 xG and Pogon Szczecin 1.22 xG, a combined 2.77. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Pogon Szczecin landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Raków Częstochowa attack 1.24 / defence 0.97 against Pogon Szczecin attack 1.03 / defence 0.98, drawn from 39/40 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Raków Częstochowa 45% | Draw 25% | Pogon Szczecin 30%, with Raków Częstochowa to win its most likely call at 45%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 52%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 76% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Raków Częstochowa 56%, Pogon Szczecin 56%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Raków Częstochowa's trading profile (39 games, 19 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and duly kept one.
Pogon Szczecin's trading profile (39 games, 19 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Raków Częstochowa 2.03 PPG, Pogon Szczecin 1.92 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Raków Częstochowa win broke the near-deadlock. Raków Częstochowa (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.05 scoring average — below par going forward. Pogon Szczecin (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.32 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.