Raków Częstochowa vs Pogon Szczecin – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model rates Pogon Szczecin at 46%, yet other data sources diverge — this Raków Częstochowa vs Pogon Szczecin fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Ekstraklasa clash, Regular Season - 13 as Raków Częstochowa welcome Pogon Szczecin to zondacrypto Arena. Kick-off is set for Saturday 31 October 2026 at 17:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Raków Częstochowa stand at 4W 0D 6L from 10 Ekstraklasa matches — 1.20 PPG. Last five: L L L L L. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.70 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Raków Częstochowa have played only a handful of Ekstraklasa games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Raków Częstochowa at zondacrypto Arena this season: 5W 1D 4L from 10 home games — 1.60 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Pogon Szczecin — All Games: 4W 4D 2L from 10 Ekstraklasa fixtures this season — 1.60 PPG. Last five: L W W D D. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 0.90. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Pogon Szczecin have played only a handful of Ekstraklasa games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Pogon Szczecin's away record: 4W 2D 4L from 10 road trips in Ekstraklasa this season (1.40 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 5 away clean sheets from 10 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.20 PPG (Raków Częstochowa) versus 1.60 (Pogon Szczecin). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
Head to Head
Raków Częstochowa hold a clear advantage in this fixture, picking up 6 wins from 10 previous encounters compared to 2 for Pogon Szczecin, with 2 draws in between.
The last 10 meetings have been tight affairs, averaging just 1.7 goals per game. That low-scoring pattern is a meaningful historical input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent clash, on 8 Mar 2026, ended 2–0 with Raków Częstochowa winning.
The historical record gives Raków Częstochowa a meaningful edge here — 6 wins from 10 meetings is the kind of ledger that should not be discounted when the form picture is inconclusive. Even away from home, the visitors have struggled to impose themselves in this fixture.
In-Play Data
Raków Częstochowa trading profile (39 games, 19 at home): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (home games).
Pogon Szczecin trading profile (39 games, 19 at away): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 37% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Raków Częstochowa 62% versus Pogon Szczecin 56%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Raków Częstochowa 54% | Pogon Szczecin 51%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Raków Częstochowa 1.09 xG and Pogon Szczecin 1.58 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Raków Częstochowa attack 0.984 / defence 1.331 | Pogon Szczecin attack 0.927 / defence 0.711. League average goals — home 1.552 / away 1.278. Pogon Szczecin's defence strength of 0.711 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 39 Raków Częstochowa games / 39 Pogon Szczecin games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Raków Częstochowa 23% | Draw 31% | Pogon Szczecin 46%. Fair-value odds: Raków Częstochowa 4.35 | Draw 3.23 | Pogon Szczecin 2.17. Pogon Szczecin hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (31%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 50% | BTTS probability 56% | Total xG 2.66. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 50%/50% — the total xG of 2.66 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 56% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Pogon Szczecin at 46% — moderate model lean. With a 31% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Pogon Szczecin offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.66 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 50% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by H2H averaging 1.7 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 56%. Form rates are neutral: Raków Częstochowa 50% | Pogon Szczecin 40%.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Raków Częstochowa vs Pogon Szczecin | Competition: Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 13 | Venue: zondacrypto Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 31 Oct 2026, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Raków Częstochowa 23% | Draw 31% | Pogon Szczecin 46% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 50% | BTTS 56% | xG Raków Częstochowa 1.09 / Pogon Szczecin 1.58 • Poisson strength factors: Raków Częstochowa attack 0.984 / def 1.331 | Pogon Szczecin attack 0.927 / def 0.711 | league avg home 1.552 / away 1.278 • Poisson stance: Pogon Szczecin (46%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.09
Raków Częstochowa xG
Expected Goals
1.58
Pogon Szczecin xG
56%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
50%
Over 2.5
28%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Raków Częstochowa vs Pogon Szczecin kick off?
Raków Częstochowa vs Pogon Szczecin is scheduled to kick off at 17:00 on Saturday 31 October 2026 at zondacrypto Arena.
Where is Raków Częstochowa vs Pogon Szczecin being played?
The match is being played at zondacrypto Arena.
What competition is Raków Częstochowa vs Pogon Szczecin part of?
Raków Częstochowa vs Pogon Szczecin is a Regular Season - 13 fixture in the Ekstraklasa (Poland).
Who is favourite to win Raków Częstochowa vs Pogon Szczecin?
Our statistical model gives Raków Częstochowa a 23% chance of winning, Pogon Szczecin a 46% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Pogon Szczecin the favourite.
Will both teams score in Raków Częstochowa vs Pogon Szczecin?
Our model estimates a 56% probability that both Raków Częstochowa and Pogon Szczecin will score (BTTS).
Will Raków Częstochowa vs Pogon Szczecin have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 50%.
What is the head-to-head record between Raków Częstochowa and Pogon Szczecin?
Record (10 meetings): Raków Częstochowa 6W | Draws 2 | Pogon Szczecin 2W.
What form are Raków Częstochowa and Pogon Szczecin in?
Raków Częstochowa (all comps): 4W-0D-6L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-L-L-L-L. Pogon Szczecin (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 0.90 | L5 L-W-W-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Raków Częstochowa's attack at 0.98x the league average against Pogon Szczecin's defence at 0.71x — combine the two and it projects 1.09 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Pogon Szczecin's attack versus Raków Częstochowa's defence, projects 1.58 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 39/39 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.5% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-1 (9.4%), 1-2 (9.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Pogon Szczecin Win
23%
4.34
31%
3.18
46%
2.20
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.9%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
11.0%
Away win
1 – 2
9.4%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.09
Raków Częstochowa xG
Total xG
2.66
1.58
Pogon Szczecin xG
4.34
23%
Home win
3.18
31%
Draw
2.20
46%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
50%
Over 2.5
2.00
50%
Under 2.5
2.00
28%
Over 3.5
3.57
72%
Under 3.5
1.39
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
56%
BTTS Yes
1.79
44%
BTTS No
2.26
Clean Sheet
21%
4.84
34%
2.96
Win to Nil
5%
21.03
15%
6.51
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.0 | 11.0 | 8.7 | 4.6 | 1.8 | 0.6 |
| 1 | 7.6 | 11.9 | 9.4 | 5.0 | 2.0 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 4.1 | 6.5 | 5.1 | 2.7 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 1.5 | 2.3 | 1.9 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Raków Częstochowa vs Pogon Szczecin?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.5%.
How many goals are Raków Częstochowa and Pogon Szczecin expected to score?
The model projects 1.09 expected goals for Raków Częstochowa and 1.58 for Pogon Szczecin, a combined total of 2.66.
How confident is the prediction model for Raków Częstochowa vs Pogon Szczecin?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Raków Częstochowa's recent record stands at 16W 7D 16L from 39 games, a 1.41 PPG return, with L-L-L-L-L in the last five. It's still early in the season for Raków Częstochowa, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Pogon Szczecin, meanwhile, have gone 15W 8D 16L across 39 games — 1.36 PPG, with L-W-W-D-D in their last five. It's still early in the season for Pogon Szczecin, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: Raków Częstochowa on 1.41 PPG, Pogon Szczecin on 1.36. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Raków Częstochowa have managed 8W 4D 7L from 19 games — 1.47 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Pogon Szczecin's away record stands at 5W 4D 10L across 19 trips, a 1.00 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Raków Częstochowa come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Raków Częstochowa are averaging 1.46 goals scored and 1.36 conceded per game recently; Pogon Szczecin are on 1.38 scored and 1.36 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Raków Częstochowa have seen both teams score in 62% of their recent games.
Last 39 Results — Ekstraklasa
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Raków Częstochowa
Early Season
Pogon Szczecin
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Raków Częstochowa and Pogon Szczecin in coming into this match?
Raków Częstochowa have gone 16W 7D 16L in their last 39 games (1.41 PPG), while Pogon Szczecin have gone 15W 8D 16L in their last 39 (1.36 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Raków Częstochowa at home or Pogon Szczecin away?
Raków Częstochowa's home record (1.47 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Raków Częstochowa at home: 1.47 PPG; Pogon Szczecin away: 1.00 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Raków Częstochowa and Pogon Szczecin runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to November 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Ekstraklasa. They last met on 8 March 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
Raków Częstochowa's record when hosting Pogon Szczecin specifically: 4W 1D 0L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
6
Raków Częstochowa
2
Draws
2
Pogon Szczecin
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Raków Częstochowa and Pogon Szczecin?
From 10 meetings on record, Raków Częstochowa have won 6, Pogon Szczecin have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Raków Częstochowa and Pogon Szczecin last play each other?
They last met on 8 March 2026, when Raków Częstochowa 2-0 Pogon Szczecin.
Who has won more matches between Raków Częstochowa and Pogon Szczecin?
Raków Częstochowa have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Raków Częstochowa are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time.
Pogon Szczecin are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Raków Częstochowa 47%, Pogon Szczecin 47% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 42% (Raków Częstochowa) and 37% (Pogon Szczecin).
On the defensive side: Raków Częstochowa keep a clean sheet in 37% of their matches; Pogon Szczecin in 32%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Raków Częstochowa home games / Pogon Szczecin away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Raków Częstochowa play Pogon Szczecin?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 47% of Raków Częstochowa's recent matches and 47% of Pogon Szczecin's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Raków Częstochowa vs Pogon Szczecin usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 42% of Raków Częstochowa's recent games and 37% of Pogon Szczecin's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Raków Częstochowa and Pogon Szczecin tend to score early?
Raków Częstochowa have had a goal before half-time in 74% of their recent matches, Pogon Szczecin in 79% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.