Raków Częstochowa 1-0 ŁKS Łódź – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Raków Częstochowa at 76% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Raków Częstochowa vs ŁKS Łódź encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Ekstraklasa clash, Regular Season - 8 as Raków Częstochowa welcome ŁKS Łódź to Miejski Stadion Piłkarski Raków. Kick-off is set for Saturday 16 September 2023 at 16:30 UTC.
Form Guide
Raków Częstochowa — All Games: 5W 2D 3L from 10 Ekstraklasa outings this season, averaging 1.70 points per game. Last five: W D L W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 0.90 conceded. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Raków Częstochowa have played only a handful of Ekstraklasa games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
In front of their own supporters this season, Raków Częstochowa have posted 7W 2D 1L at Miejski Stadion Piłkarski Raków — 2.30 PPG. They are averaging 2.40 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Miejski Stadion Piłkarski Raków. Their home PPG of 2.30 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.70 — Raków Częstochowa are significantly better at Miejski Stadion Piłkarski Raków than their overall form suggests.
Looking at all fixtures this season, ŁKS Łódź stand at 2W 0D 5L from 7 Ekstraklasa matches — 0.86 PPG. Last five: W L W L L. Their scoring rate of 0.57 per game is modest, conceding 1.57 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 7 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in just 29% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. ŁKS Łódź have played only a handful of Ekstraklasa games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
ŁKS Łódź's away record: 0W 0D 4L from 4 road trips in Ekstraklasa this season (0.00 PPG). Away from home they average 0.25 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 25% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 0.00 is notably below their overall 0.86 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
On current form, Raków Częstochowa have the edge — a 0.84 PPG advantage (1.70 vs 0.86) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
Trading Patterns
Raków Częstochowa in-play and half-time data (7 games, 4 at home): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures in home games; when trailing at the break they recover to draw or win in 29% of cases; BTTS occurs in 25% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time.
ŁKS Łódź in-play and half-time data (7 games, 4 at away): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures in away games; BTTS occurs in 25% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); they fail to score in 57% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Raków Częstochowa 57% versus ŁKS Łódź 29%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Raków Częstochowa 57% | ŁKS Łódź 43%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Raków Częstochowa 2.21 xG and ŁKS Łódź 0.49 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Raków Częstochowa attack 1.257 / defence 0.833 | ŁKS Łódź attack 0.643 / defence 1.291. League average goals — home 1.360 / away 0.913. Raków Częstochowa carry an above-average attack strength of 1.257 — their λ of 2.21 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. ŁKS Łódź bring a strong defensive rating of 1.291 — this is suppressing Raków Częstochowa's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 39 Raków Częstochowa games / 7 ŁKS Łódź games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Raków Częstochowa 76% | Draw 18% | ŁKS Łódź 6%. Fair-value odds: Raków Częstochowa 1.32 | Draw 5.56 | ŁKS Łódź 16.67. The model has a clear lean to Raków Częstochowa (76%) — a 70pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 51% | BTTS probability 35% | Total xG 2.70. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 51%/49% — the total xG of 2.70 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS No has firm model support at 65% — ŁKS Łódź's lower xG of 0.49 creates a meaningful probability of a scoring blank, which suppresses the BTTS Yes probability to 35%.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Raków Częstochowa as the most likely outcome at 76% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 18% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.70 combined xG gives a 51% probability to Over 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 35% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Raków Częstochowa 40% | ŁKS Łódź 25% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Raków Częstochowa vs ŁKS Łódź | Competition: Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 8 | Venue: Miejski Stadion Piłkarski Raków • Kick-off: Saturday 16 Sep 2023, 16:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Raków Częstochowa 76% | Draw 18% | ŁKS Łódź 6% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 51% | BTTS 35% | xG Raków Częstochowa 2.21 / ŁKS Łódź 0.49 • Poisson strength factors: Raków Częstochowa attack 1.257 / def 0.833 | ŁKS Łódź attack 0.643 / def 1.291 | league avg home 1.360 / away 0.913 • Poisson stance: Raków Częstochowa (76%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.21
Raków Częstochowa xG
Expected Goals
0.49
ŁKS Łódź xG
35%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
51%
Over 2.5
29%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Raków Częstochowa vs ŁKS Łódź kick off?
Raków Częstochowa vs ŁKS Łódź kicked off at 16:30 on Saturday 16 September 2023 at Miejski Stadion Piłkarski Raków.
What was the final score in Raków Częstochowa vs ŁKS Łódź?
Raków Częstochowa 1 - 0 ŁKS Łódź.
Where is Raków Częstochowa vs ŁKS Łódź being played?
The match is being played at Miejski Stadion Piłkarski Raków.
What competition is Raków Częstochowa vs ŁKS Łódź part of?
Raków Częstochowa vs ŁKS Łódź is a Regular Season - 8 fixture in the Ekstraklasa (Poland).
Who is favourite to win Raków Częstochowa vs ŁKS Łódź?
Our statistical model gives Raków Częstochowa a 76% chance of winning, ŁKS Łódź a 6% chance, and a 18% chance of a draw — making Raków Częstochowa the favourite.
Will both teams score in Raków Częstochowa vs ŁKS Łódź?
Our model estimates a 35% probability that both Raków Częstochowa and ŁKS Łódź will score (BTTS).
Will Raków Częstochowa vs ŁKS Łódź have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 51%.
What is the head-to-head record between Raków Częstochowa and ŁKS Łódź?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Raków Częstochowa and ŁKS Łódź in?
Raków Częstochowa (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-D-L-W-W. ŁKS Łódź (all comps): 2W-0D-5L in 7 | 0.86 PPG | GF 0.57 / GA 1.57 | L5 W-L-W-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Raków Częstochowa's attack rating (1.26) and ŁKS Łódź's defence rating (1.29), the model arrives at 2.21 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, ŁKS Łódź's attack versus Raków Częstochowa's defence, projects 0.49 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 39/7 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 2-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 16.4%. Close behind: 1-0 (13.9%), 3-0 (12.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 42% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Raków Częstochowa Win
76%
1.31
18%
5.68
6%
16.47
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 0
16.4%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 0
14.9%
Home win
3 – 0
12.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.21
Raków Częstochowa xG
Total xG
2.70
0.49
ŁKS Łódź xG
1.31
76%
Home win
5.68
18%
Draw
16.47
6%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
51%
Over 2.5
1.96
49%
Under 2.5
2.04
29%
Over 3.5
3.45
71%
Under 3.5
1.41
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
35%
BTTS Yes
2.84
65%
BTTS No
1.54
Clean Sheet
61%
1.63
11%
9.11
Win to Nil
47%
2.14
1%
150.03
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.7 | 3.3 | 0.8 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 1 | 14.9 | 7.3 | 1.8 | 0.3 | – | – |
| 2 | 16.4 | 8.0 | 2.0 | 0.3 | – | – |
| 3 | 12.1 | 5.9 | 1.5 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 4 | 6.7 | 3.3 | 0.8 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 2.9 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Raków Częstochowa vs ŁKS Łódź?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 16.4%.
How many goals are Raków Częstochowa and ŁKS Łódź expected to score?
The model projects 2.21 expected goals for Raków Częstochowa and 0.49 for ŁKS Łódź, a combined total of 2.70.
How confident is the prediction model for Raków Częstochowa vs ŁKS Łódź?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 76%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 7 outings, Raków Częstochowa have picked up 2.00 PPG on a 4W 2D 1L record — W-D-L-W-W across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Raków Częstochowa, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
ŁKS Łódź's form line: 2W 0D 5L from 7 games, 0.86 PPG, last five W-L-W-L-L. It's still early in the season for ŁKS Łódź, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Put side by side, Raków Częstochowa are the form team by 1.14 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against ŁKS Łódź.
Venue Form
On home soil, Raków Częstochowa have posted 2.50 PPG from 4 outings (3W 1D 0L). That's noticeably better than their 2.00 PPG overall — Raków Częstochowa are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, ŁKS Łódź have gone 0W 0D 4L from 4 away games — 0.00 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 0.86 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of ŁKS Łódź's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Raków Częstochowa come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Raków Częstochowa are averaging 1.86 goals scored and 0.86 conceded per game recently; ŁKS Łódź are on 0.57 scored and 1.57 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: ŁKS Łódź in 29%.
Defensively: Raków Częstochowa have kept a clean sheet in 43% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 7 Results — Ekstraklasa
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Raków Częstochowa
Early Season
ŁKS Łódź
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Raków Częstochowa and ŁKS Łódź in coming into this match?
Raków Częstochowa have gone 4W 2D 1L in their last 7 games (2.00 PPG), while ŁKS Łódź have gone 2W 0D 5L in their last 7 (0.86 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Raków Częstochowa at home or ŁKS Łódź away?
Raków Częstochowa's home record (2.50 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Raków Częstochowa at home: 2.50 PPG; ŁKS Łódź away: 0.00 PPG.
Have Raków Częstochowa or ŁKS Łódź been keeping clean sheets recently?
Raków Częstochowa have kept a clean sheet in 43% of their recent games, ŁKS Łódź in 14%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
2 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to September 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Ekstraklasa. It has been a while since the last meeting — 17 March 2024, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
1
Raków Częstochowa
1
Draws
0
ŁKS Łódź
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Raków Częstochowa and ŁKS Łódź?
From 2 meetings on record, Raków Częstochowa have won 1, ŁKS Łódź have won 0, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Raków Częstochowa and ŁKS Łódź last play each other?
They last met on 17 March 2024, when ŁKS Łódź 1-1 Raków Częstochowa.
Who has won more matches between Raków Częstochowa and ŁKS Łódź?
Raków Częstochowa have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Raków Częstochowa are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 75% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
ŁKS Łódź are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
Clean sheets have been more common than shared scoring for these two — Raków Częstochowa 25% BTTS, ŁKS Łódź 25%. That points toward BTTS No as the trading lean.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Raków Częstochowa) and 50% (ŁKS Łódź).
On the defensive side: Raków Częstochowa keep a clean sheet in 75% of their matches; ŁKS Łódź in 75%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Raków Częstochowa home games / ŁKS Łódź away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Raków Częstochowa play ŁKS Łódź?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 25% of Raków Częstochowa's recent matches and 25% of ŁKS Łódź's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Raków Częstochowa vs ŁKS Łódź usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Raków Częstochowa's recent games and 50% of ŁKS Łódź's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Raków Częstochowa and ŁKS Łódź tend to score early?
Raków Częstochowa have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, ŁKS Łódź in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Raków Częstochowa edge out ŁKS Łódź 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Raków Częstochowa beat ŁKS Łódź 1-0 at Miejski Stadion Piłkarski Raków, Regular Season - 8, in the Ekstraklasa. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Raków Częstochowa 2.21 xG and ŁKS Łódź 0.49 xG, a combined 2.70. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Raków Częstochowa fell 1.2 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Raków Częstochowa attack 1.26 / defence 0.83 against ŁKS Łódź attack 0.64 / defence 1.29, drawn from 39/7 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Raków Częstochowa 76% | Draw 18% | ŁKS Łódź 6%, with Raków Częstochowa to win its most likely call at 76%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 51%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 76% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 35% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Raków Częstochowa 57%, ŁKS Łódź 43%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 43%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Raków Częstochowa's trading profile (7 games, 4 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time, and duly kept one.
ŁKS Łódź's trading profile (7 games, 4 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 29% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 57% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Raków Częstochowa arrived the stronger side — 2.00 PPG against 0.86. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Raków Częstochowa (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.25 scoring average — below par going forward. ŁKS Łódź (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 2.00 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.