Radomiak Radom 3-1 Raków Częstochowa – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Radomiak Radom at 39%, yet other data sources diverge — this Radomiak Radom vs Raków Częstochowa fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Radomiak Radom host Raków Częstochowa at Stadion Radomiaka in Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 3. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 3 August 2025 at 16:30 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Ekstraklasa games this season, Radomiak Radom have gone 2W 5D 3L from 10 outings — a 1.10 PPG return. Last five: W D L W D. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 1.40 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Radomiak Radom have played only a handful of Ekstraklasa games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
In front of their own supporters this season, Radomiak Radom have posted 4W 4D 2L at Stadion Radomiaka — 1.60 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.60 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.10 — Radomiak Radom are significantly better at Stadion Radomiaka than their overall form suggests.
Raków Częstochowa — All Games: 5W 2D 3L from 10 Ekstraklasa fixtures this season — 1.70 PPG. Last five: L D W W L. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 0.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Raków Częstochowa have played only a handful of Ekstraklasa games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
When travelling in Ekstraklasa this season, Raków Częstochowa have posted 6W 3D 1L from 10 away outings — 2.10 PPG. Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 0.50 conceded per game. 6 away clean sheets from 10 games (60%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
Form points away from home here. Raków Częstochowa's 1.70 PPG return is 0.60 points per game ahead of Radomiak Radom's 1.10 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
H2H
Despite the anticipated home advantage, Raków Częstochowa have the better historical record — 5 wins from 8 previous contests against 1 for Radomiak Radom.
The 8 previous meetings have averaged 2.4 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 12 Apr 2025, ended 1–2 with Raków Częstochowa winning.
It is worth noting that Raków Częstochowa have a superior record in this fixture despite their visitor status — 5 wins from 8 meetings. Home advantage alone is not a sufficient reason to dismiss that track record.
In-Play Profile
Radomiak Radom in-play tendencies (36 games, 18 at home): they score before half-time in 89% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 57% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 72% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 36%.
Raków Częstochowa in-play tendencies (36 games, 18 at away): they score before half-time in 61% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; BTTS occurs in 28% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 22% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Radomiak Radom 69% versus Raków Częstochowa 42%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Radomiak Radom 61% | Raków Częstochowa 39%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Radomiak Radom 1.32 xG and Raków Częstochowa 1.22 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Radomiak Radom attack 1.281 / defence 0.979 | Raków Częstochowa attack 0.962 / defence 0.665. League average goals — home 1.552 / away 1.297. Radomiak Radom carry an above-average attack strength of 1.281 — their λ of 1.32 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Raków Częstochowa's defence strength of 0.665 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 36 Radomiak Radom games / 36 Raków Częstochowa games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Radomiak Radom 39% | Draw 27% | Raków Częstochowa 34%. Fair-value odds: Radomiak Radom 2.56 | Draw 3.70 | Raków Częstochowa 2.94. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 47% | BTTS probability 52% | Total xG 2.54. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 47%/53% — the total xG of 2.54 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 52% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Radomiak Radom at 39% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Raków Częstochowa (1.70 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Radomiak Radom offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.54 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 47% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 52% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Radomiak Radom 80% | Raków Częstochowa 30% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects. The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (36 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Radomiak Radom vs Raków Częstochowa | Competition: Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 3 | Venue: Stadion Radomiaka • Kick-off: Sunday 3 Aug 2025, 16:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Radomiak Radom 39% | Draw 27% | Raków Częstochowa 34% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 47% | BTTS 52% | xG Radomiak Radom 1.32 / Raków Częstochowa 1.22 • Poisson strength factors: Radomiak Radom attack 1.281 / def 0.979 | Raków Częstochowa attack 0.962 / def 0.665 | league avg home 1.552 / away 1.297 • Poisson stance: Radomiak Radom (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.32
Radomiak Radom xG
Expected Goals
1.22
Raków Częstochowa xG
52%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
47%
Over 2.5
25%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Radomiak Radom vs Raków Częstochowa kick off?
Radomiak Radom vs Raków Częstochowa kicked off at 16:30 on Sunday 3 August 2025 at Stadion Radomiaka.
What was the final score in Radomiak Radom vs Raków Częstochowa?
Radomiak Radom 3 - 1 Raków Częstochowa.
Where is Radomiak Radom vs Raków Częstochowa being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Radomiaka.
What competition is Radomiak Radom vs Raków Częstochowa part of?
Radomiak Radom vs Raków Częstochowa is a Regular Season - 3 fixture in the Ekstraklasa (Poland).
Who is favourite to win Radomiak Radom vs Raków Częstochowa?
Our statistical model gives Radomiak Radom a 39% chance of winning, Raków Częstochowa a 34% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Radomiak Radom the favourite.
Will both teams score in Radomiak Radom vs Raków Częstochowa?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both Radomiak Radom and Raków Częstochowa will score (BTTS).
Will Radomiak Radom vs Raków Częstochowa have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 47%.
What is the head-to-head record between Radomiak Radom and Raków Częstochowa?
Record (8 meetings): Radomiak Radom 1W | Draws 2 | Raków Częstochowa 5W.
What form are Radomiak Radom and Raków Częstochowa in?
Radomiak Radom (all comps): 2W-5D-3L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-D-L-W-D. Raków Częstochowa (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 0.90 | L5 L-D-W-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Radomiak Radom's attacking strength (1.28x league average) is weighed against Raków Częstochowa's defensive record (0.67x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.32. The same calculation in reverse, Raków Częstochowa's attack versus Radomiak Radom's defence, projects 1.22 expected goals for the visitors.
The sample (36/36 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.3%. Close behind: 0-0 (9.5%), 1-0 (8.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Radomiak Radom Win
39%
2.56
27%
3.75
34%
2.92
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.7%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.4%
Home win
0 – 1
9.6%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.32
Radomiak Radom xG
Total xG
2.54
1.22
Raków Częstochowa xG
2.56
39%
Home win
3.75
27%
Draw
2.92
34%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
47%
Over 2.5
2.13
53%
Under 2.5
1.89
25%
Over 3.5
4.00
75%
Under 3.5
1.33
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.93
48%
BTTS No
2.07
Clean Sheet
29%
3.39
27%
3.75
Win to Nil
12%
8.68
9%
10.96
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.9 | 9.6 | 5.9 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 10.4 | 12.7 | 7.7 | 3.2 | 1.0 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.9 | 8.4 | 5.1 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.0 | 3.7 | 2.3 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.2 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Radomiak Radom vs Raków Częstochowa?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.3%.
How many goals are Radomiak Radom and Raków Częstochowa expected to score?
The model projects 1.32 expected goals for Radomiak Radom and 1.22 for Raków Częstochowa, a combined total of 2.54.
How confident is the prediction model for Radomiak Radom vs Raków Częstochowa?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Radomiak Radom's recent record stands at 12W 9D 15L from 36 games, a 1.25 PPG return, with W-D-L-W-D in the last five. It's still early in the season for Radomiak Radom, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Raków Częstochowa, meanwhile, have gone 21W 9D 6L across 36 games — 2.00 PPG, with L-D-W-W-L in their last five. It's still early in the season for Raków Częstochowa, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
The points-per-game comparison favours Raków Częstochowa by 0.75 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Radomiak Radom heading into this one.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Radomiak Radom have managed 7W 5D 6L from 18 games — 1.44 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Raków Częstochowa's away record stands at 11W 6D 1L across 18 trips, a 2.17 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Raków Częstochowa come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Radomiak Radom are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game recently; Raków Częstochowa are on 1.47 scored and 0.69 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Radomiak Radom have seen both teams score in 69% of their recent games.
Defensively: Raków Częstochowa in 50% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 36 Results — Ekstraklasa
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Radomiak Radom
Early Season
Raków Częstochowa
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Radomiak Radom and Raków Częstochowa in coming into this match?
Radomiak Radom have gone 12W 9D 15L in their last 36 games (1.25 PPG), while Raków Częstochowa have gone 21W 9D 6L in their last 36 (2.00 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Radomiak Radom at home or Raków Częstochowa away?
Raków Częstochowa's away record (2.17 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Radomiak Radom at home: 1.44 PPG; Raków Częstochowa away: 2.17 PPG.
Have Radomiak Radom or Raków Częstochowa been keeping clean sheets recently?
Radomiak Radom have kept a clean sheet in 14% of their recent games, Raków Częstochowa in 50%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Ekstraklasa. They last met on 8 February 2026, roughly 7 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 17 Sep 2022, when Raków Częstochowa won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Radomiak Radom's record when hosting Raków Częstochowa specifically: 2W 1D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Radomiak Radom
3
Draws
5
Raków Częstochowa
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Radomiak Radom and Raków Częstochowa?
From 10 meetings on record, Radomiak Radom have won 2, Raków Częstochowa have won 5, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Radomiak Radom and Raków Częstochowa last play each other?
They last met on 8 February 2026, when Raków Częstochowa 0-0 Radomiak Radom.
Who has won more matches between Radomiak Radom and Raków Częstochowa?
Raków Częstochowa have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Radomiak Radom are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 89% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 22% of those situations.
Raków Częstochowa are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 61% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Radomiak Radom 72%, Raków Częstochowa 28% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 56% (Radomiak Radom) and 22% (Raków Częstochowa).
On the defensive side: Raków Częstochowa in 67%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Radomiak Radom home games / Raków Częstochowa away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Radomiak Radom play Raków Częstochowa?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 72% of Radomiak Radom's recent matches and 28% of Raków Częstochowa's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Radomiak Radom vs Raków Częstochowa usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 56% of Radomiak Radom's recent games and 22% of Raków Częstochowa's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Radomiak Radom and Raków Częstochowa tend to score early?
Radomiak Radom have had a goal before half-time in 89% of their recent matches, Raków Częstochowa in 61% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Radomiak Radom cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Raków Częstochowa.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Radomiak Radom beat Raków Częstochowa 3-1 at Stadion Radomiaka, Regular Season - 3, in the Ekstraklasa. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Radomiak Radom 1.32 xG and Raków Częstochowa 1.22 xG, a combined 2.54. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Radomiak Radom beat their projection by 1.7 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Radomiak Radom attack 1.28 / defence 0.98 against Raków Częstochowa attack 0.96 / defence 0.67, drawn from 36/36 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Radomiak Radom 39% | Draw 27% | Raków Częstochowa 34%, with Radomiak Radom to win its most likely call at 39%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 47%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 72% and landed. Over 3.5 was 25% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Radomiak Radom 61%, Raków Częstochowa 39%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Radomiak Radom's trading profile (36 games, 18 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 69% of their matches — today it did.
Raków Częstochowa's trading profile (36 games, 18 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Raków Częstochowa arrived the stronger side — 2.00 PPG against 1.25. Form was overturned, with Radomiak Radom winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Radomiak Radom (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.78 average — above their attacking norm. Raków Częstochowa (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 0.44 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.