Radomiak Radom 1-1 Pogon Szczecin – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Radomiak Radom at 51%, yet other data sources diverge — this Radomiak Radom vs Pogon Szczecin fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Pogon Szczecin make the trip to Stadion MOSiR ul. Narutowicza to face Radomiak Radom in Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 7. The match kicks off on Monday 13 September 2021 at 19:30 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Radomiak Radom have collected 1.60 PPG across 5 Ekstraklasa outings this season: 2W 2D 1L. Last five: D W L W D. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 0.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 2 clean sheets in 5 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Radomiak Radom have played only a handful of Ekstraklasa games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Pogon Szczecin (all games): 3W 2D 1L across 6 Ekstraklasa outings this term — 1.83 points per game. Last five: D W L W D. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 0.83. 2 clean sheets from 6 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Pogon Szczecin have played only a handful of Ekstraklasa games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Pogon Szczecin's form when playing away from home: 0W 2D 1L across 3 road games this term (0.67 PPG). Away from home they average 0.67 goals scored and 1.33 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 67% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 0.67 is notably below their overall 1.83 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.60 for Radomiak Radom, 1.83 for Pogon Szczecin — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
Trading & In-Play
Radomiak Radom — key trading statistics (5 games): they score before half-time in 40% of fixtures; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games; Over 3.5 in 40%; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time; they fail to score in 40% of games.
Pogon Szczecin — key trading statistics (5 games): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 20% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Radomiak Radom 40% versus Pogon Szczecin 60%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Radomiak Radom 40% | Pogon Szczecin 20%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Radomiak Radom 1.45 xG and Pogon Szczecin 0.84 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Radomiak Radom attack 1.106 / defence 0.988 | Pogon Szczecin attack 0.739 / defence 1.197. League average goals — home 1.097 / away 1.149. Data: 5 Radomiak Radom games / 6 Pogon Szczecin games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Radomiak Radom 51% | Draw 28% | Pogon Szczecin 21%. Fair-value odds: Radomiak Radom 1.96 | Draw 3.57 | Pogon Szczecin 4.76. Radomiak Radom hold a narrow Poisson edge at 51% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 40% | BTTS probability 44% | Total xG 2.29. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 60% — total xG of 2.29 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 44% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Radomiak Radom as the most likely outcome at 51% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Radomiak Radom if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.29 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 40% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.0 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 44% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Radomiak Radom 40% | Pogon Szczecin 67%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Radomiak Radom vs Pogon Szczecin | Competition: Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 7 | Venue: Stadion MOSiR ul. Narutowicza • Kick-off: Monday 13 Sep 2021, 19:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Radomiak Radom 51% | Draw 28% | Pogon Szczecin 21% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 40% | BTTS 44% | xG Radomiak Radom 1.45 / Pogon Szczecin 0.84 • Poisson strength factors: Radomiak Radom attack 1.106 / def 0.988 | Pogon Szczecin attack 0.739 / def 1.197 | league avg home 1.097 / away 1.149 • Poisson stance: Radomiak Radom (51%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.45
Radomiak Radom xG
Expected Goals
0.84
Pogon Szczecin xG
44%
BTTS
67%
Over 1.5
40%
Over 2.5
20%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Radomiak Radom vs Pogon Szczecin kick off?
Radomiak Radom vs Pogon Szczecin kicked off at 19:30 on Monday 13 September 2021 at Stadion MOSiR ul. Narutowicza.
What was the final score in Radomiak Radom vs Pogon Szczecin?
Radomiak Radom 1 - 1 Pogon Szczecin.
Where is Radomiak Radom vs Pogon Szczecin being played?
The match is being played at Stadion MOSiR ul. Narutowicza.
What competition is Radomiak Radom vs Pogon Szczecin part of?
Radomiak Radom vs Pogon Szczecin is a Regular Season - 7 fixture in the Ekstraklasa (Poland).
Who is favourite to win Radomiak Radom vs Pogon Szczecin?
Our statistical model gives Radomiak Radom a 51% chance of winning, Pogon Szczecin a 21% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Radomiak Radom the favourite.
Will both teams score in Radomiak Radom vs Pogon Szczecin?
Our model estimates a 44% probability that both Radomiak Radom and Pogon Szczecin will score (BTTS).
Will Radomiak Radom vs Pogon Szczecin have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 40%.
What is the head-to-head record between Radomiak Radom and Pogon Szczecin?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Radomiak Radom and Pogon Szczecin in?
Radomiak Radom (all comps): 2W-2D-1L in 5 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 0.80 | L5 D-W-L-W-D. Pogon Szczecin (all comps): 3W-2D-1L in 6 | 1.83 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 0.83 | L5 D-W-L-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Radomiak Radom's attack at 1.11x the league average against Pogon Szczecin's defence at 1.20x — combine the two and it projects 1.45 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Pogon Szczecin's attack (0.74x) against Radomiak Radom's defence (0.99x) — and the away total comes out at 0.84.
These ratings are built from 5/6 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.9% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (13.1%), 0-0 (11.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 39% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Radomiak Radom Win
51%
1.96
28%
3.59
21%
4.73
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.7%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.3%
Draw
2 – 0
10.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.45
Radomiak Radom xG
Total xG
2.29
0.84
Pogon Szczecin xG
1.96
51%
Home win
3.59
28%
Draw
4.73
21%
Away win
Goals Markets
67%
Over 1.5
1.49
33%
Under 1.5
3.03
40%
Over 2.5
2.50
60%
Under 2.5
1.67
20%
Over 3.5
5.00
80%
Under 3.5
1.25
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
44%
BTTS Yes
2.27
56%
BTTS No
1.79
Clean Sheet
43%
2.31
23%
4.27
Win to Nil
22%
4.54
5%
20.20
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.1 | 8.5 | 3.6 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 14.7 | 12.3 | 5.2 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.7 | 8.9 | 3.8 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 5.2 | 4.3 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.9 | 1.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Radomiak Radom vs Pogon Szczecin?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.9%.
How many goals are Radomiak Radom and Pogon Szczecin expected to score?
The model projects 1.45 expected goals for Radomiak Radom and 0.84 for Pogon Szczecin, a combined total of 2.29.
How confident is the prediction model for Radomiak Radom vs Pogon Szczecin?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 51%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Radomiak Radom come into this having played 5 games, going 2W 2D 1L for 1.60 points per game. Their last five reads D-W-L-W-D. It's still early in the season for Radomiak Radom, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Pogon Szczecin sit at 1.60 PPG from 5 outings (2W 2D 1L), a run that reads D-W-L-W-D across their last five. It's still early in the season for Pogon Szczecin, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.60 PPG for Radomiak Radom against 1.60 for Pogon Szczecin. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Attack vs Defence
Radomiak Radom are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game recently; Pogon Szczecin are on 1.40 scored and 1.00 conceded. Both sides have been difficult to break down recently — a combination that often points to a tighter, lower-scoring game than the average fixture.
On BTTS specifically: Pogon Szczecin in 60%.
Defensively: Radomiak Radom have kept a clean sheet in 40% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 5 Results — Ekstraklasa
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Radomiak Radom
Early Season
Pogon Szczecin
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Radomiak Radom and Pogon Szczecin in coming into this match?
Radomiak Radom have gone 2W 2D 1L in their last 5 games (1.60 PPG), while Pogon Szczecin have gone 2W 2D 1L in their last 5 (1.60 PPG).
Have Radomiak Radom or Pogon Szczecin been keeping clean sheets recently?
Radomiak Radom have kept a clean sheet in 40% of their recent games, Pogon Szczecin in 20%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to September 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Ekstraklasa. They last met on 6 December 2025, roughly 8 months ago.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Pogon Szczecin won 4-0 on 4 Mar 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Radomiak Radom have gone 2W 1D 2L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Pogon Szczecin — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Radomiak Radom
2
Draws
4
Pogon Szczecin
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Radomiak Radom and Pogon Szczecin?
From 10 meetings on record, Radomiak Radom have won 4, Pogon Szczecin have won 4, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Radomiak Radom and Pogon Szczecin last play each other?
They last met on 6 December 2025, when Pogon Szczecin 2-2 Radomiak Radom.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Radomiak Radom see a goal before the break in 40% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
Pogon Szczecin are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 20% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Radomiak Radom 40%, Pogon Szczecin 60% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 40% for Radomiak Radom and 20% for Pogon Szczecin.
On the defensive side: Radomiak Radom keep a clean sheet in 40% of their matches; Radomiak Radom have failed to score in 40% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Radomiak Radom home games / Pogon Szczecin away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Radomiak Radom play Pogon Szczecin?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 40% of Radomiak Radom's recent matches and 60% of Pogon Szczecin's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Radomiak Radom vs Pogon Szczecin usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 40% of Radomiak Radom's recent games and 20% of Pogon Szczecin's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Radomiak Radom and Pogon Szczecin tend to score early?
Radomiak Radom have had a goal before half-time in 40% of their recent matches, Pogon Szczecin in 80% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Radomiak Radom and Pogon Szczecin share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Radomiak Radom and Pogon Szczecin finished level at 1-1 at Stadion MOSiR ul. Narutowicza, Regular Season - 7, in the Ekstraklasa. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Radomiak Radom 1.45 xG and Pogon Szczecin 0.84 xG, a combined 2.29. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Radomiak Radom attack 1.11 / defence 0.99 against Pogon Szczecin attack 0.74 / defence 1.20, drawn from 5/6 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Radomiak Radom 51% | Draw 28% | Pogon Szczecin 21%, with Radomiak Radom to win its most likely call at 51%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 40%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 67% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 44% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 30% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Radomiak Radom 40%, Pogon Szczecin 20%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Radomiak Radom's trading profile (5 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time, and conceded here.
Pogon Szczecin's trading profile (5 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Radomiak Radom 1.60 PPG, Pogon Szczecin 1.60 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.