Pogon Szczecin 3-1 Warta Poznań – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Warta Poznań at 49%, yet other data sources diverge — this Pogon Szczecin vs Warta Poznań fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Pogon Szczecin and Warta Poznań meet at Stadion Miejski im. Floriana Krygiera in Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 21. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 18 February 2023 at 19:00 UTC.
Current Form
Pogon Szczecin's overall Ekstraklasa record this term: 3W 3D 4L from 10 games (1.20 PPG). Last five: L W D L L. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 2.10 conceded. However, 2.10 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Pogon Szczecin, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Pogon Szczecin have posted 4W 4D 2L at Stadion Miejski im. Floriana Krygiera — 1.60 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Warta Poznań have collected 1.60 PPG across 10 Ekstraklasa outings this season: 4W 4D 2L. Last five: W W D D D. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 0.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.70 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for Warta Poznań, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Warta Poznań's away record: 7W 1D 2L from 10 road trips in Ekstraklasa this season (2.20 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 0.50 conceded per game. 6 away clean sheets from 10 games (60%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 2.20 exceeds their overall 1.60 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.20 for Pogon Szczecin, 1.60 for Warta Poznań — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 3 head-to-head meetings have produced 1 wins for Pogon Szczecin, 0 for Warta Poznań and 2 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
The 3 previous meetings have averaged 2.3 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 7 Aug 2022, ended 2–1 with Pogon Szczecin winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
Pogon Szczecin — key trading statistics (53 games, 25 at home): they score before half-time in 84% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 87% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 76% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 76% of games (home games).
Warta Poznań — key trading statistics (53 games, 25 at away): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 52% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 16% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 24% of games (away games); they fail to score in 38% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Pogon Szczecin 68% versus Warta Poznań 38%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Pogon Szczecin 57% | Warta Poznań 30%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Pogon Szczecin 0.99 xG and Warta Poznań 1.52 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Pogon Szczecin attack 1.006 / defence 1.252 | Warta Poznań attack 1.106 / defence 0.829. League average goals — home 1.183 / away 1.101. Data: 54 Pogon Szczecin games / 53 Warta Poznań games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Pogon Szczecin 23% | Draw 28% | Warta Poznań 49%. Fair-value odds: Pogon Szczecin 4.35 | Draw 3.57 | Warta Poznań 2.04. Warta Poznań hold a narrow Poisson edge at 49% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 46% | BTTS probability 50% | Total xG 2.51. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 46%/54% — the total xG of 2.51 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 50% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Warta Poznań are the pick at 49% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Warta Poznań if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 2.51 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 46% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 50% on Yes. Form rates are neutral: Pogon Szczecin 70% | Warta Poznań 20%.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Pogon Szczecin vs Warta Poznań | Competition: Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 21 | Venue: Stadion Miejski im. Floriana Krygiera • Kick-off: Saturday 18 Feb 2023, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Pogon Szczecin 23% | Draw 28% | Warta Poznań 49% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 46% | BTTS 50% | xG Pogon Szczecin 0.99 / Warta Poznań 1.52 • Poisson strength factors: Pogon Szczecin attack 1.006 / def 1.252 | Warta Poznań attack 1.106 / def 0.829 | league avg home 1.183 / away 1.101 • Poisson stance: Warta Poznań (49%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.99
Pogon Szczecin xG
Expected Goals
1.52
Warta Poznań xG
50%
BTTS
73%
Over 1.5
46%
Over 2.5
24%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Pogon Szczecin vs Warta Poznań kick off?
Pogon Szczecin vs Warta Poznań kicked off at 19:00 on Saturday 18 February 2023 at Stadion Miejski im. Floriana Krygiera.
What was the final score in Pogon Szczecin vs Warta Poznań?
Pogon Szczecin 3 - 1 Warta Poznań.
Where is Pogon Szczecin vs Warta Poznań being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Miejski im. Floriana Krygiera.
What competition is Pogon Szczecin vs Warta Poznań part of?
Pogon Szczecin vs Warta Poznań is a Regular Season - 21 fixture in the Ekstraklasa (Poland).
Who is favourite to win Pogon Szczecin vs Warta Poznań?
Our statistical model gives Pogon Szczecin a 23% chance of winning, Warta Poznań a 49% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Warta Poznań the favourite.
Will both teams score in Pogon Szczecin vs Warta Poznań?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both Pogon Szczecin and Warta Poznań will score (BTTS).
Will Pogon Szczecin vs Warta Poznań have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 46%.
What is the head-to-head record between Pogon Szczecin and Warta Poznań?
Record (3 meetings): Pogon Szczecin 1W | Draws 2 | Warta Poznań 0W.
What form are Pogon Szczecin and Warta Poznań in?
Pogon Szczecin (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 2.10 | L5 L-W-D-L-L. Warta Poznań (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 0.70 | L5 W-W-D-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Pogon Szczecin's attacking strength (1.01x league average) is weighed against Warta Poznań's defensive record (0.83x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.99. Flip it around — Warta Poznań's attack (1.11x) against Pogon Szczecin's defence (1.25x) — and the away total comes out at 1.52.
These ratings are built from 54/53 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.8%. Close behind: 0-1 (10.8%), 0-0 (9.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Warta Poznań Win
23%
4.29
28%
3.56
49%
2.06
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
12.4%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.2%
Draw
0 – 2
9.4%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.99
Pogon Szczecin xG
Total xG
2.51
1.52
Warta Poznań xG
4.29
23%
Home win
3.56
28%
Draw
2.06
49%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
46%
Over 2.5
2.17
54%
Under 2.5
1.85
24%
Over 3.5
4.17
76%
Under 3.5
1.32
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
1.99
50%
BTTS No
2.01
Clean Sheet
22%
4.60
37%
2.68
Win to Nil
5%
19.71
18%
5.51
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.1 | 12.4 | 9.4 | 4.8 | 1.8 | 0.6 |
| 1 | 8.0 | 12.2 | 9.3 | 4.7 | 1.8 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 3.9 | 6.0 | 4.6 | 2.3 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 1.3 | 2.0 | 1.5 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Pogon Szczecin vs Warta Poznań?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.8%.
How many goals are Pogon Szczecin and Warta Poznań expected to score?
The model projects 0.99 expected goals for Pogon Szczecin and 1.52 for Warta Poznań, a combined total of 2.51.
How confident is the prediction model for Pogon Szczecin vs Warta Poznań?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 49%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 53 outings, Pogon Szczecin have picked up 1.74 PPG on a 25W 17D 11L record — L-W-D-L-L across the most recent five. The sample for Pogon Szczecin is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Warta Poznań's form line: 18W 15D 20L from 53 games, 1.30 PPG, last five W-W-D-D-D. The sample for Warta Poznań is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Pogon Szczecin are the form team by 0.44 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Warta Poznań.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Pogon Szczecin have posted 1.92 PPG from 25 outings (14W 6D 5L).
On the road, Warta Poznań have gone 13W 3D 9L from 25 away games — 1.68 PPG when travelling.
Attack vs Defence
Pogon Szczecin are averaging 1.75 goals scored and 1.19 conceded per game recently; Warta Poznań are on 1.04 scored and 1.06 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Pogon Szczecin have seen both teams score in 68% of their recent games.
Last 53 Results — Ekstraklasa
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Pogon Szczecin
Blended
Warta Poznań
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Pogon Szczecin and Warta Poznań in coming into this match?
Pogon Szczecin have gone 25W 17D 11L in their last 53 games (1.74 PPG), while Warta Poznań have gone 18W 15D 20L in their last 53 (1.30 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Pogon Szczecin at home or Warta Poznań away?
Pogon Szczecin's home record (1.92 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Pogon Szczecin at home: 1.92 PPG; Warta Poznań away: 1.68 PPG.
Have Pogon Szczecin or Warta Poznań been keeping clean sheets recently?
Pogon Szczecin have kept a clean sheet in 21% of their recent games, Warta Poznań in 32%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 6 times that we have on record, stretching back to August 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 2 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Ekstraklasa. It has been a while since the last meeting — 8 December 2023, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Pogon Szczecin have gone 1W 2D 0L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Warta Poznań — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
3
Pogon Szczecin
3
Draws
0
Warta Poznań
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Pogon Szczecin and Warta Poznań?
From 6 meetings on record, Pogon Szczecin have won 3, Warta Poznań have won 0, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Pogon Szczecin and Warta Poznań last play each other?
They last met on 8 December 2023, when Pogon Szczecin 3-3 Warta Poznań.
Who has won more matches between Pogon Szczecin and Warta Poznań?
Pogon Szczecin have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Pogon Szczecin are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 84% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 56% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 16% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Warta Poznań are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Pogon Szczecin 76%, Warta Poznań 16% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 76% (Pogon Szczecin) and 24% (Warta Poznań).
On the defensive side: Warta Poznań in 48%; Warta Poznań in 40%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Pogon Szczecin home games / Warta Poznań away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Pogon Szczecin play Warta Poznań?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 76% of Pogon Szczecin's recent matches and 16% of Warta Poznań's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Pogon Szczecin vs Warta Poznań usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 76% of Pogon Szczecin's recent games and 24% of Warta Poznań's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Pogon Szczecin and Warta Poznań tend to score early?
Pogon Szczecin have had a goal before half-time in 84% of their recent matches, Warta Poznań in 60% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Pogon Szczecin cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Warta Poznań.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Pogon Szczecin beat Warta Poznań 3-1 at Stadion Miejski im. Floriana Krygiera, Regular Season - 21, in the Ekstraklasa. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Pogon Szczecin 0.99 xG and Warta Poznań 1.52 xG, a combined 2.51. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Pogon Szczecin beat their projection by 2.0 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Pogon Szczecin attack 1.01 / defence 1.25 against Warta Poznań attack 1.11 / defence 0.83, drawn from 54/53 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Pogon Szczecin 23% | Draw 28% | Warta Poznań 49%, with Warta Poznań to win its most likely call at 49%. Instead the game produced a Pogon Szczecin win, an outcome the model had rated at just 23% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 46%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 73% and landed. Over 3.5 was 24% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 43% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Pogon Szczecin 57%, Warta Poznań 30%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Pogon Szczecin's trading profile (53 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 68% of their matches — today it did.
Warta Poznań's trading profile (53 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 38% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Pogon Szczecin arrived the stronger side — 1.74 PPG against 1.30. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Pogon Szczecin (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 2.12 average — above their attacking norm. Warta Poznań (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 0.76 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.