Pogon Szczecin 1-1 Warta Poznań – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Pogon Szczecin at 69% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Pogon Szczecin vs Warta Poznań encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Pogon Szczecin and Warta Poznań meet at Stadion Miejski im. Floriana Krygiera in Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 19. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 18 December 2021 at 14:00 UTC.
Current Form
Pogon Szczecin's overall Ekstraklasa record this term: 7W 2D 1L from 10 games (2.30 PPG). Last five: D W W W D. They are averaging 2.30 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Pogon Szczecin, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Pogon Szczecin have posted 7W 1D 0L at Stadion Miejski im. Floriana Krygiera — 2.75 PPG. They are averaging 2.88 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 75% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Warta Poznań have collected 0.80 PPG across 10 Ekstraklasa outings this season: 2W 2D 6L. Last five: W L L D W. Their scoring rate of 0.50 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for Warta Poznań, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Warta Poznań's away record: 2W 1D 5L from 8 road trips in Ekstraklasa this season (0.88 PPG). Away from home they average 0.88 goals scored and 1.38 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 12% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
The points-per-game gap of 1.50 in Pogon Szczecin's favour (2.30 vs 0.80) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 1 head-to-head meetings have produced 0 wins for Pogon Szczecin, 0 for Warta Poznań and 1 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 1 Aug 2021, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
Pogon Szczecin — key trading statistics (18 games, 8 at home): they score before half-time in 88% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; they lead at the break 61% of the time; BTTS occurs in 75% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (home games).
Warta Poznań — key trading statistics (18 games, 8 at away): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 56% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 12% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (away games); they fail to score in 56% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Pogon Szczecin 61% versus Warta Poznań 33%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Pogon Szczecin 39% | Warta Poznań 28%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Pogon Szczecin 2.15 xG and Warta Poznań 0.76 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Pogon Szczecin attack 1.535 / defence 0.977 | Warta Poznań attack 0.659 / defence 1.131. League average goals — home 1.239 / away 1.176. Pogon Szczecin carry an above-average attack strength of 1.535 — their λ of 2.15 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 18 Pogon Szczecin games / 18 Warta Poznań games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Pogon Szczecin 69% | Draw 19% | Warta Poznań 12%. Fair-value odds: Pogon Szczecin 1.45 | Draw 5.26 | Warta Poznań 8.33. The model has a clear lean to Pogon Szczecin (69%) — a 57pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 56% | BTTS probability 47% | Total xG 2.91. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 56% — the 2.91 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 47% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Pogon Szczecin are the pick at 69% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 19% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 2.91 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 56% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.9 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 47% on No. Form rates corroborate: Pogon Szczecin 75% | Warta Poznań 12% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Pogon Szczecin vs Warta Poznań | Competition: Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 19 | Venue: Stadion Miejski im. Floriana Krygiera • Kick-off: Saturday 18 Dec 2021, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Pogon Szczecin 69% | Draw 19% | Warta Poznań 12% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 56% | BTTS 47% | xG Pogon Szczecin 2.15 / Warta Poznań 0.76 • Poisson strength factors: Pogon Szczecin attack 1.535 / def 0.977 | Warta Poznań attack 0.659 / def 1.131 | league avg home 1.239 / away 1.176 • Poisson stance: Pogon Szczecin (69%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.15
Pogon Szczecin xG
Expected Goals
0.76
Warta Poznań xG
47%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
56%
Over 2.5
33%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Pogon Szczecin vs Warta Poznań kick off?
Pogon Szczecin vs Warta Poznań kicked off at 14:00 on Saturday 18 December 2021 at Stadion Miejski im. Floriana Krygiera.
What was the final score in Pogon Szczecin vs Warta Poznań?
Pogon Szczecin 1 - 1 Warta Poznań.
Where is Pogon Szczecin vs Warta Poznań being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Miejski im. Floriana Krygiera.
What competition is Pogon Szczecin vs Warta Poznań part of?
Pogon Szczecin vs Warta Poznań is a Regular Season - 19 fixture in the Ekstraklasa (Poland).
Who is favourite to win Pogon Szczecin vs Warta Poznań?
Our statistical model gives Pogon Szczecin a 69% chance of winning, Warta Poznań a 12% chance, and a 19% chance of a draw — making Pogon Szczecin the favourite.
Will both teams score in Pogon Szczecin vs Warta Poznań?
Our model estimates a 47% probability that both Pogon Szczecin and Warta Poznań will score (BTTS).
Will Pogon Szczecin vs Warta Poznań have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 56%.
What is the head-to-head record between Pogon Szczecin and Warta Poznań?
Record (1 meetings): Pogon Szczecin 0W | Draws 1 | Warta Poznań 0W.
What form are Pogon Szczecin and Warta Poznań in?
Pogon Szczecin (all comps): 7W-2D-1L in 10 | 2.30 PPG | GF 2.30 / GA 0.80 | L5 D-W-W-W-D. Warta Poznań (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 0.50 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-L-L-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Pogon Szczecin's attacking strength (1.53x league average) is weighed against Warta Poznań's defensive record (1.13x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 2.15. Flip it around — Warta Poznań's attack (0.66x) against Pogon Szczecin's defence (0.98x) — and the away total comes out at 0.76.
These ratings are built from 18/18 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 2-0, at 12.6%. Close behind: 1-0 (10.6%), 1-1 (10.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Pogon Szczecin Win
69%
1.44
19%
5.35
12%
8.45
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 0
12.6%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 0
11.7%
Home win
2 – 1
9.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.15
Pogon Szczecin xG
Total xG
2.91
0.76
Warta Poznań xG
1.44
69%
Home win
5.35
19%
Draw
8.45
12%
Away win
Goals Markets
79%
Over 1.5
1.27
21%
Under 1.5
4.76
56%
Over 2.5
1.79
44%
Under 2.5
2.27
33%
Over 3.5
3.03
67%
Under 3.5
1.49
17%
Over 4.5
5.88
83%
Under 4.5
1.20
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
47%
BTTS Yes
2.13
53%
BTTS No
1.88
Clean Sheet
47%
2.13
12%
8.59
Win to Nil
33%
3.07
1%
72.58
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.5 | 4.1 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 11.7 | 8.9 | 3.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 12.6 | 9.6 | 3.6 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 9.1 | 6.9 | 2.6 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 4.9 | 3.7 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 2.1 | 1.6 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Pogon Szczecin vs Warta Poznań?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.6%.
How many goals are Pogon Szczecin and Warta Poznań expected to score?
The model projects 2.15 expected goals for Pogon Szczecin and 0.76 for Warta Poznań, a combined total of 2.91.
How confident is the prediction model for Pogon Szczecin vs Warta Poznań?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 69%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 18 outings, Pogon Szczecin have picked up 2.00 PPG on a 10W 6D 2L record — D-W-W-W-D across the most recent five. The sample for Pogon Szczecin is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Warta Poznań's form line: 3W 6D 9L from 18 games, 0.83 PPG, last five W-L-L-D-W. The sample for Warta Poznań is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Pogon Szczecin are the form team by 1.17 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Warta Poznań.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Pogon Szczecin have posted 2.75 PPG from 8 outings (7W 1D 0L). That's noticeably better than their 2.00 PPG overall — Pogon Szczecin are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Warta Poznań have gone 2W 1D 5L from 8 away games — 0.88 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Pogon Szczecin come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Pogon Szczecin are averaging 1.89 goals scored and 0.83 conceded per game recently; Warta Poznań are on 0.72 scored and 1.28 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Pogon Szczecin have seen both teams score in 61% of their recent games.
Last 18 Results — Ekstraklasa
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Pogon Szczecin
Blended
Warta Poznań
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Pogon Szczecin and Warta Poznań in coming into this match?
Pogon Szczecin have gone 10W 6D 2L in their last 18 games (2.00 PPG), while Warta Poznań have gone 3W 6D 9L in their last 18 (0.83 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Pogon Szczecin at home or Warta Poznań away?
Pogon Szczecin's home record (2.75 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Pogon Szczecin at home: 2.75 PPG; Warta Poznań away: 0.88 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 6 times that we have on record, stretching back to August 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 2 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Ekstraklasa. It has been a while since the last meeting — 8 December 2023, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Pogon Szczecin have gone 1W 2D 0L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Warta Poznań — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
3
Pogon Szczecin
3
Draws
0
Warta Poznań
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Pogon Szczecin and Warta Poznań?
From 6 meetings on record, Pogon Szczecin have won 3, Warta Poznań have won 0, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Pogon Szczecin and Warta Poznań last play each other?
They last met on 8 December 2023, when Pogon Szczecin 3-3 Warta Poznań.
Who has won more matches between Pogon Szczecin and Warta Poznań?
Pogon Szczecin have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Pogon Szczecin are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 88% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 75% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Warta Poznań see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Pogon Szczecin 75%, Warta Poznań 12% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 62% (Pogon Szczecin) and 38% (Warta Poznań).
On the defensive side: Warta Poznań in 62%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Pogon Szczecin home games / Warta Poznań away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Pogon Szczecin play Warta Poznań?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 75% of Pogon Szczecin's recent matches and 12% of Warta Poznań's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Pogon Szczecin vs Warta Poznań usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 62% of Pogon Szczecin's recent games and 38% of Warta Poznań's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Pogon Szczecin and Warta Poznań tend to score early?
Pogon Szczecin have had a goal before half-time in 88% of their recent matches, Warta Poznań in 50% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Pogon Szczecin and Warta Poznań share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Stadion Miejski im. Floriana Krygiera, Regular Season - 19, as Pogon Szczecin and Warta Poznań drew 1-1 in the Ekstraklasa. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Pogon Szczecin 2.15 xG and Warta Poznań 0.76 xG, a combined 2.91. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Pogon Szczecin fell 1.2 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Pogon Szczecin attack 1.53 / defence 0.98 against Warta Poznań attack 0.66 / defence 1.13, drawn from 18/18 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Pogon Szczecin 69% | Draw 19% | Warta Poznań 12%, with Pogon Szczecin to win its most likely call at 69%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 19% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 56%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 79% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 33% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Pogon Szczecin 39%, Warta Poznań 28%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 47%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Pogon Szczecin's trading profile (18 games, 8 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did.
Warta Poznań's trading profile (18 games, 8 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 33% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Pogon Szczecin arrived the stronger side — 2.00 PPG against 0.83. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Pogon Szczecin (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.88 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.