Pogon Szczecin 0-2 Raków Częstochowa – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Raków Częstochowa (43%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Pogon Szczecin face Raków Częstochowa.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Ekstraklasa clash, Regular Season - 23 as Pogon Szczecin welcome Raków Częstochowa to Stadion Miejski im. Floriana Krygiera. Kick-off is set for Sunday 5 March 2023 at 14:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Ekstraklasa games this season, Pogon Szczecin have gone 4W 3D 3L from 10 outings — a 1.50 PPG return. Last five: D L L W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.70 conceded. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Pogon Szczecin, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Pogon Szczecin's form when playing at home: 5W 3D 2L across 10 games at Stadion Miejski im. Floriana Krygiera this term (1.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Raków Częstochowa — All Games: 8W 2D 0L from 10 Ekstraklasa fixtures this season — 2.60 PPG. Last five: D W D W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.10 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Defensively, 0.50 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. This season is still relatively young for Raków Częstochowa, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Ekstraklasa this season, Raków Częstochowa have posted 6W 3D 1L from 10 away outings — 2.10 PPG. Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Their away PPG of 2.10 is notably below their overall 2.60 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Form points away from home here. Raków Częstochowa's 2.60 PPG return is 1.10 points per game ahead of Pogon Szczecin's 1.50 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 0 wins apiece for Pogon Szczecin, 2 for Raków Częstochowa and 1 shared spoils from 3 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
These sides have historically produced few goals — 1.3 per contest from 3 previous meetings. The Under 2.5 market has a well-supported historical case here. The most recent clash, on 31 Aug 2022, ended 0–1 with Raków Częstochowa winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.3 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading Patterns
Pogon Szczecin in-play and half-time data (56 games, 27 at home): they score before half-time in 85% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 62% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 74% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 74% of games (home games).
Raków Częstochowa in-play and half-time data (56 games, 27 at away): they score before half-time in 63% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 46% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Pogon Szczecin 66% versus Raków Częstochowa 45%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Pogon Szczecin 55% | Raków Częstochowa 54%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Pogon Szczecin 1.14 xG and Raków Częstochowa 1.39 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Pogon Szczecin attack 1.179 / defence 1.172 | Raków Częstochowa attack 1.059 / defence 0.783. League average goals — home 1.229 / away 1.116. Raków Częstochowa's defence strength of 0.783 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 56 Pogon Szczecin games / 56 Raków Częstochowa games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Pogon Szczecin 31% | Draw 27% | Raków Częstochowa 43%. Fair-value odds: Pogon Szczecin 3.23 | Draw 3.70 | Raków Częstochowa 2.33. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 46% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 2.52. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 46%/54% — the total xG of 2.52 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Raków Częstochowa as the most likely outcome at 43% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Raków Częstochowa offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.52 combined xG gives a 46% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable, supported by H2H averaging 1.3 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 51% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Pogon Szczecin 70% | Raków Częstochowa 50% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Pogon Szczecin vs Raków Częstochowa | Competition: Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 23 | Venue: Stadion Miejski im. Floriana Krygiera • Kick-off: Sunday 5 Mar 2023, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Pogon Szczecin 31% | Draw 27% | Raków Częstochowa 43% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 46% | BTTS 51% | xG Pogon Szczecin 1.14 / Raków Częstochowa 1.39 • Poisson strength factors: Pogon Szczecin attack 1.179 / def 1.172 | Raków Częstochowa attack 1.059 / def 0.783 | league avg home 1.229 / away 1.116 • Poisson stance: Raków Częstochowa (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.14
Pogon Szczecin xG
Expected Goals
1.39
Raków Częstochowa xG
51%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
46%
Over 2.5
25%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Pogon Szczecin vs Raków Częstochowa kick off?
Pogon Szczecin vs Raków Częstochowa kicked off at 14:00 on Sunday 5 March 2023 at Stadion Miejski im. Floriana Krygiera.
What was the final score in Pogon Szczecin vs Raków Częstochowa?
Pogon Szczecin 0 - 2 Raków Częstochowa.
Where is Pogon Szczecin vs Raków Częstochowa being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Miejski im. Floriana Krygiera.
What competition is Pogon Szczecin vs Raków Częstochowa part of?
Pogon Szczecin vs Raków Częstochowa is a Regular Season - 23 fixture in the Ekstraklasa (Poland).
Who is favourite to win Pogon Szczecin vs Raków Częstochowa?
Our statistical model gives Pogon Szczecin a 31% chance of winning, Raków Częstochowa a 43% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Raków Częstochowa the favourite.
Will both teams score in Pogon Szczecin vs Raków Częstochowa?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both Pogon Szczecin and Raków Częstochowa will score (BTTS).
Will Pogon Szczecin vs Raków Częstochowa have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 46%.
What is the head-to-head record between Pogon Szczecin and Raków Częstochowa?
Record (3 meetings): Pogon Szczecin 0W | Draws 1 | Raków Częstochowa 2W.
What form are Pogon Szczecin and Raków Częstochowa in?
Pogon Szczecin (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.70 | L5 D-L-L-W-W. Raków Częstochowa (all comps): 8W-2D-0L in 10 | 2.60 PPG | GF 2.10 / GA 0.50 | L5 D-W-D-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Pogon Szczecin's attack at 1.18x the league average against Raków Częstochowa's defence at 0.78x — combine the two and it projects 1.14 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Raków Częstochowa's attack versus Pogon Szczecin's defence, projects 1.39 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 56/56 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.3% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (9.7%), 0-1 (9.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Raków Częstochowa Win
31%
3.25
27%
3.76
43%
2.35
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.6%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
11.1%
Away win
1 – 0
9.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.14
Pogon Szczecin xG
Total xG
2.52
1.39
Raków Częstochowa xG
3.25
31%
Home win
3.76
27%
Draw
2.35
43%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
46%
Over 2.5
2.17
54%
Under 2.5
1.85
25%
Over 3.5
4.00
75%
Under 3.5
1.33
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.97
49%
BTTS No
2.04
Clean Sheet
25%
4.00
32%
3.11
Win to Nil
8%
13.00
14%
7.30
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.0 | 11.1 | 7.7 | 3.6 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 9.1 | 12.6 | 8.8 | 4.0 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 5.2 | 7.2 | 5.0 | 2.3 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.0 | 2.7 | 1.9 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Pogon Szczecin vs Raków Częstochowa?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.3%.
How many goals are Pogon Szczecin and Raków Częstochowa expected to score?
The model projects 1.14 expected goals for Pogon Szczecin and 1.39 for Raków Częstochowa, a combined total of 2.52.
How confident is the prediction model for Pogon Szczecin vs Raków Częstochowa?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Pogon Szczecin's recent record stands at 28W 17D 11L from 56 games, a 1.80 PPG return, with D-L-L-W-W in the last five. The sample for Pogon Szczecin is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Raków Częstochowa, meanwhile, have gone 36W 13D 7L across 56 games — 2.16 PPG, with D-W-D-W-W in their last five. The sample for Raków Częstochowa is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Pogon Szczecin on 1.80 PPG, Raków Częstochowa on 2.16. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Pogon Szczecin have managed 16W 6D 5L from 27 games — 2.00 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Raków Częstochowa's away record stands at 15W 6D 6L across 27 trips, a 1.89 PPG haul.
Goals in Recent Form
Pogon Szczecin are averaging 1.77 goals scored and 1.14 conceded per game recently; Raków Częstochowa are on 1.80 scored and 0.79 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Pogon Szczecin have seen both teams score in 66% of their recent games.
Defensively: Raków Częstochowa in 46% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 56 Results — Ekstraklasa
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Pogon Szczecin
Blended
Raków Częstochowa
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Pogon Szczecin and Raków Częstochowa in coming into this match?
Pogon Szczecin have gone 28W 17D 11L in their last 56 games (1.80 PPG), while Raków Częstochowa have gone 36W 13D 7L in their last 56 (2.16 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Pogon Szczecin at home or Raków Częstochowa away?
Pogon Szczecin's home record (2.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Pogon Szczecin at home: 2.00 PPG; Raków Częstochowa away: 1.89 PPG.
Have Pogon Szczecin or Raków Częstochowa been keeping clean sheets recently?
Pogon Szczecin have kept a clean sheet in 23% of their recent games, Raków Częstochowa in 46%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to November 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Ekstraklasa. They last met on 8 March 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Pogon Szczecin's record when hosting Raków Częstochowa specifically: 2W 1D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Pogon Szczecin
2
Draws
6
Raków Częstochowa
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Pogon Szczecin and Raków Częstochowa?
From 10 meetings on record, Pogon Szczecin have won 2, Raków Częstochowa have won 6, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Pogon Szczecin and Raków Częstochowa last play each other?
They last met on 8 March 2026, when Raków Częstochowa 2-0 Pogon Szczecin.
Who has won more matches between Pogon Szczecin and Raków Częstochowa?
Raków Częstochowa have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Pogon Szczecin are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 85% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 56% of the time.
Raków Częstochowa are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 63% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Pogon Szczecin 74%, Raków Częstochowa 44% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 74% for Pogon Szczecin and 52% for Raków Częstochowa. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 44% and 11% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Raków Częstochowa in 37%; Raków Częstochowa in 30%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Pogon Szczecin home games / Raków Częstochowa away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Pogon Szczecin play Raków Częstochowa?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 74% of Pogon Szczecin's games and 44% of Raków Częstochowa's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Pogon Szczecin vs Raków Częstochowa usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 74% of Pogon Szczecin's matches and 52% of Raków Częstochowa's.
Do Pogon Szczecin and Raków Częstochowa tend to score early?
Pogon Szczecin have had a goal before half-time in 85% of their recent matches, Raków Częstochowa in 63% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Raków Częstochowa cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Pogon Szczecin.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Raków Częstochowa beat Pogon Szczecin 0-2 at Stadion Miejski im. Floriana Krygiera, Regular Season - 23, in the Ekstraklasa. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Pogon Szczecin 1.14 xG and Raków Częstochowa 1.39 xG, a combined 2.52. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Pogon Szczecin fell 1.1 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Pogon Szczecin attack 1.18 / defence 1.17 against Raków Częstochowa attack 1.06 / defence 0.78, drawn from 56/56 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Pogon Szczecin 31% | Draw 27% | Raków Częstochowa 43%, with Raków Częstochowa to win its most likely call at 43%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 46%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 72% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Pogon Szczecin 55%, Raków Częstochowa 54%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Pogon Szczecin's trading profile (56 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 66% of their matches — today it did not.
Raków Częstochowa's trading profile (56 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 46% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Pogon Szczecin 1.80 PPG, Raków Częstochowa 2.16 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Raków Częstochowa win broke the near-deadlock. Pogon Szczecin (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 2.15 scoring average — below par going forward. Raków Częstochowa (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 0.89 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.