Pogon Szczecin 4-1 Jagiellonia – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Pogon Szczecin at 60%, yet other data sources diverge — this Pogon Szczecin vs Jagiellonia fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Jagiellonia make the trip to Stadion Miejski im. Floriana Krygiera to face Pogon Szczecin in Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 12. The match kicks off on Saturday 23 October 2021 at 16:30 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Pogon Szczecin have collected 1.60 PPG across 10 Ekstraklasa outings this season: 4W 4D 2L. Last five: D D W W L. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 0.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Pogon Szczecin, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Stadion Miejski im. Floriana Krygiera, Pogon Szczecin have gone 4W 1D 0L this season (5 games, 2.60 PPG). They are averaging 2.40 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 2 home clean sheets from 5 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.60 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.60 — Pogon Szczecin are significantly better at Stadion Miejski im. Floriana Krygiera than their overall form suggests.
Jagiellonia (all games): 4W 3D 3L across 10 Ekstraklasa outings this term — 1.50 points per game. Last five: D L W W D. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for Jagiellonia, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Jagiellonia have gone 1W 1D 2L from 4 away fixtures this term (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 0.75 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.00 is notably below their overall 1.50 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.60 for Pogon Szczecin, 1.50 for Jagiellonia — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
Trading Data
Pogon Szczecin goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (11 games, 4 at home): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures in home games; they lead at the break 64% of the time; when winning at HT they fail to see it out 27% of the time; BTTS occurs in 75% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games).
Jagiellonia goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (11 games, 4 at away): they score before half-time in 25% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Pogon Szczecin 54% versus Jagiellonia 54%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Pogon Szczecin 18% | Jagiellonia 36%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Pogon Szczecin 1.79 xG and Jagiellonia 0.85 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Pogon Szczecin attack 1.236 / defence 0.983 | Jagiellonia attack 0.725 / defence 1.177. League average goals — home 1.233 / away 1.200. Data: 11 Pogon Szczecin games / 11 Jagiellonia games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Pogon Szczecin 60% | Draw 23% | Jagiellonia 18%. Fair-value odds: Pogon Szczecin 1.67 | Draw 4.35 | Jagiellonia 5.56. The model has a clear lean to Pogon Szczecin (60%) — a 42pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 49% | BTTS probability 48% | Total xG 2.65. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 49%/51% — the total xG of 2.65 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 48% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Pogon Szczecin at 60% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 23% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 2.65 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 49% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 48% on No. Form rates are neutral: Pogon Szczecin 60% | Jagiellonia 50%.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Pogon Szczecin vs Jagiellonia | Competition: Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 12 | Venue: Stadion Miejski im. Floriana Krygiera • Kick-off: Saturday 23 Oct 2021, 16:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Pogon Szczecin 60% | Draw 23% | Jagiellonia 18% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 49% | BTTS 48% | xG Pogon Szczecin 1.79 / Jagiellonia 0.85 • Poisson strength factors: Pogon Szczecin attack 1.236 / def 0.983 | Jagiellonia attack 0.725 / def 1.177 | league avg home 1.233 / away 1.200 • Poisson stance: Pogon Szczecin (60%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.79
Pogon Szczecin xG
Expected Goals
0.85
Jagiellonia xG
48%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
49%
Over 2.5
27%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Pogon Szczecin vs Jagiellonia kick off?
Pogon Szczecin vs Jagiellonia kicked off at 16:30 on Saturday 23 October 2021 at Stadion Miejski im. Floriana Krygiera.
What was the final score in Pogon Szczecin vs Jagiellonia?
Pogon Szczecin 4 - 1 Jagiellonia.
Where is Pogon Szczecin vs Jagiellonia being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Miejski im. Floriana Krygiera.
What competition is Pogon Szczecin vs Jagiellonia part of?
Pogon Szczecin vs Jagiellonia is a Regular Season - 12 fixture in the Ekstraklasa (Poland).
Who is favourite to win Pogon Szczecin vs Jagiellonia?
Our statistical model gives Pogon Szczecin a 60% chance of winning, Jagiellonia a 18% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Pogon Szczecin the favourite.
Will both teams score in Pogon Szczecin vs Jagiellonia?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both Pogon Szczecin and Jagiellonia will score (BTTS).
Will Pogon Szczecin vs Jagiellonia have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 49%.
What is the head-to-head record between Pogon Szczecin and Jagiellonia?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Pogon Szczecin and Jagiellonia in?
Pogon Szczecin (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 0.90 | L5 D-D-W-W-L. Jagiellonia (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.10 | L5 D-L-W-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Pogon Szczecin's attacking strength (1.24x league average) is weighed against Jagiellonia's defensive record (1.18x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.79. Flip it around — Jagiellonia's attack (0.72x) against Pogon Szczecin's defence (0.98x) — and the away total comes out at 0.85.
These ratings are built from 11/11 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.3%. Close behind: 2-0 (11.4%), 1-0 (11.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Pogon Szczecin Win
60%
1.68
23%
4.37
18%
5.69
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
12.7%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
11.4%
Home win
1 – 1
10.9%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.79
Pogon Szczecin xG
Total xG
2.65
0.85
Jagiellonia xG
1.68
60%
Home win
4.37
23%
Draw
5.69
18%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
49%
Over 2.5
2.04
51%
Under 2.5
1.96
27%
Over 3.5
3.70
73%
Under 3.5
1.37
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.09
52%
BTTS No
1.92
Clean Sheet
43%
2.35
17%
6.00
Win to Nil
25%
3.95
3%
34.16
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.1 | 6.1 | 2.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 12.7 | 10.9 | 4.6 | 1.3 | 0.3 | – |
| 2 | 11.4 | 9.7 | 4.2 | 1.2 | 0.3 | – |
| 3 | 6.8 | 5.8 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 3.0 | 2.6 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.1 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Pogon Szczecin vs Jagiellonia?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.3%.
How many goals are Pogon Szczecin and Jagiellonia expected to score?
The model projects 1.79 expected goals for Pogon Szczecin and 0.85 for Jagiellonia, a combined total of 2.65.
How confident is the prediction model for Pogon Szczecin vs Jagiellonia?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 60%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 11 outings, Pogon Szczecin have picked up 1.73 PPG on a 5W 4D 2L record — D-D-W-W-L across the most recent five. The sample for Pogon Szczecin is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Jagiellonia's form line: 4W 4D 3L from 11 games, 1.45 PPG, last five D-L-W-W-D. The sample for Jagiellonia is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.73 PPG for Pogon Szczecin against 1.45 for Jagiellonia. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Pogon Szczecin have posted 2.50 PPG from 4 outings (3W 1D 0L). That's noticeably better than their 1.73 PPG overall — Pogon Szczecin are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Jagiellonia have gone 1W 1D 2L from 4 away games — 1.00 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 1.45 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Jagiellonia's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Pogon Szczecin come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Pogon Szczecin are averaging 1.45 goals scored and 0.82 conceded per game recently; Jagiellonia are on 1.09 scored and 1.09 conceded.
Defensively: Jagiellonia in 36% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 11 Results — Ekstraklasa
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Pogon Szczecin
Blended
Jagiellonia
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Pogon Szczecin and Jagiellonia in coming into this match?
Pogon Szczecin have gone 5W 4D 2L in their last 11 games (1.73 PPG), while Jagiellonia have gone 4W 4D 3L in their last 11 (1.45 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Pogon Szczecin at home or Jagiellonia away?
Pogon Szczecin's home record (2.50 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Pogon Szczecin at home: 2.50 PPG; Jagiellonia away: 1.00 PPG.
Have Pogon Szczecin or Jagiellonia been keeping clean sheets recently?
Pogon Szczecin have kept a clean sheet in 27% of their recent games, Jagiellonia in 36%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to October 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Ekstraklasa. They last met on 9 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Notable Numbers
There's a clear current trend here: Jagiellonia have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Pogon Szczecin won 4-1 on 23 Oct 2021, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Pogon Szczecin have gone 3W 1D 1L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Jagiellonia — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Pogon Szczecin
3
Draws
3
Jagiellonia
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Pogon Szczecin and Jagiellonia?
From 10 meetings on record, Pogon Szczecin have won 4, Jagiellonia have won 3, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Pogon Szczecin and Jagiellonia last play each other?
They last met on 9 May 2026, when Jagiellonia 3-2 Pogon Szczecin.
Who has won more matches between Pogon Szczecin and Jagiellonia?
Pogon Szczecin have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Pogon Szczecin are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 75% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 25% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
Jagiellonia tend to start slowly — only 25% of their games have a goal by half-time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Pogon Szczecin 75%, Jagiellonia 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Pogon Szczecin) and 50% (Jagiellonia).
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Pogon Szczecin home games / Jagiellonia away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Pogon Szczecin play Jagiellonia?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 75% of Pogon Szczecin's games and 50% of Jagiellonia's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Pogon Szczecin vs Jagiellonia usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Pogon Szczecin's recent games and 50% of Jagiellonia's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Pogon Szczecin and Jagiellonia tend to score early?
Pogon Szczecin have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, Jagiellonia in 25% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Pogon Szczecin run riot with a 4-1 hammering of Jagiellonia.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Pogon Szczecin beat Jagiellonia 4-1 at Stadion Miejski im. Floriana Krygiera, Regular Season - 12, in the Ekstraklasa. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Pogon Szczecin 1.79 xG and Jagiellonia 0.85 xG, a combined 2.65. The scoreboard read 4-1 for 5 actual goals. Pogon Szczecin beat their projection by 2.2 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Pogon Szczecin attack 1.24 / defence 0.98 against Jagiellonia attack 0.72 / defence 1.18, drawn from 11/11 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Pogon Szczecin 60% | Draw 23% | Jagiellonia 18%, with Pogon Szczecin to win its most likely call at 60%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 49%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 74% and landed. Over 3.5 was 27% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 27% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Pogon Szczecin 18%, Jagiellonia 36%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Pogon Szczecin's trading profile (11 games, 4 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.
Jagiellonia's trading profile (11 games, 4 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Pogon Szczecin 1.73 PPG, Jagiellonia 1.45 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Pogon Szczecin win broke the near-deadlock. Pogon Szczecin (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 2.50 average — above their attacking norm. Jagiellonia (home/away splits) shipped 4 against a 1.50 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.